Results tagged ‘ Yu Darvish ’
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
I appreciate sabermetrics and I know that Mike Trout has a lot of value to the Angels, but Cabrera was the best player in baseball, again, in 2013. While he didn’t win the Triple Crown like he did in 2012, he still put up ridiculous numbers and helped to carry the Tigers to the AL Central title while Prince Fielder put up the worst OPS of his career. Even weakened by injuries late in the season, Cabrera put up strong enough counting stats to be considered here, and it isn’t just the home runs and RBI, as shown by his MLB-leading OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. Cabrera may not have the all-around tools to assist Detroit with his defense and speed, but he does everything else better than everyone else in baseball. Enjoy it while you can, as Cabrera will be on the wrong side of 30 in 2014, and with the lack of performance-enhancing drugs to aid his career totals as he ages, as they did for Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire, these types of special seasons could be coming to an end for the legendary career that Cabrera has had to this point.
Honorable Mention: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels; Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles;
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Take a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs since 1992 that finally had a winning season and look for their best player? Not even close. McCutchen has been a top fantasy baseball talent for several years and this is the year that his abilities actually propelled the Pirates into contention, where they actually remained until running into the Cardinals in the NLDS. McCutchen looks like the National League’s older version of Mike Trout, posting impressive power, on-base, speed, and defensive metric numbers, creating solid, across-the-board numbers that make him one of the most well-rounded players in the entire league. As the Pirates continue to develop and plug-in talented players around him, his numbers will likely continue to take off. He is a tremendous player with a ceiling that he hasn’t even reached yet.
It isn’t about the wins, although, Scherzer did have the league-lead by two games. It’s all about how effective Scherzer was all season. He posted the lowest WHIP in the American League and only Yu Darvish (.194) had a lower batting average allowed in the AL than Scherzer’s .195. Scherzer posted impressive strikeout totals, reached a career-high in innings pitched (214.1), and showcased his ability to lead a rotation while the Tigers watched Justin Verlander have a non-Verlander-like season in 2013. Even though the Tigers rotation was, quite possibly, the deepest of any team in baseball, Detroit wouldn’t have been quite as successful without the dynamic season that Scherzer put together in 2013.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
How could it be anyone else? Someone may want to just rename the award for the Dodgers’ left-hander with the way the last few seasons have gone, although, he didn’t win the award in 2012 thanks to R.A. Dickey and his magic and rainbow season for the New York Mets. Kershaw led the majors in ERA (1.83), WHIP (0.92), and ERA+ (194), while his 232 strikeouts led the NL. Kershaw had four starts (out of 33) in which he failed to go six or more innings and only had six non-quality starts on the season. He is the definition of an ace, a shutdown starter, capable of tossing a complete game shutout every fifth day in an era that seems to make such a statistic impossible due to innings limits and pitch counts. Kershaw has gone from a starter to avoid in fantasy leagues due to his once high walk totals to the must-have starting pitching option. At 25, the sky is the limit, and with Gary Nolan and Tom Seaver at the top of his Baseball Reference similarity scores, you have to hope that Kershaw has the long, successful career of “Tom Terrific” instead of the injury-destroyed career of Nolan.
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi, New York Yankees, 85-77 AL East (4th place)
Why would you give an award to a manager who led his team to a fourth place finish? Because that manager had his starting shortstop (Derek Jeter), starting first baseman (Mark Teixeira), starting center fielder (Curtis Granderson), and starting third baseman (Alex Rodriguez) for a combined 137 games this season, meaning those four missed a combined 511 games in 2013. While plugging in Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Youkilis, Vernon Wells, Zoilo Almonte, Lyle Overbay, and Jayson Nix, while maintaining credibility and competing within the toughest division in MLB. Girardi also had to juggle a disappointing pitching staff, as he got next to nothing out of C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and David Phelps, at times, in the rotation. He certainly deserved his recent extension and proved that he is much more than a guy that fills out an All-Star lineup card every night with the Yankees star-studded roster and large payrolls over the years.
NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates, 94-68 NL Central (2nd place, NL Wild Card)
I’m not a huge believer in Clint Hurdle and I really don’t think that he deserves the award due to some questionable moves that he has made over the years, as well as this season; However, he guided a group of miscreants and castoffs (along with Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte, McCutchen, and Neil Walker) to the Pirates’ first winning season since 1992, let alone a playoff appearance. With several veteran additions (Russell Martin, Justin Morneau, and Marlon Byrd) and the arrival of the club’s future No.1 starter, Gerrit Cole, Hurdle was able to outlast Cincinnati and have a successful season. Maybe it was the bootcamp workouts in the offseason, who knows, but the man in charge, Hurdle, will likely benefit with the award, so I’ll give it to him.
Honorable Mention: Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals; Don Mattingley, Los Angeles Dodgers;
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
The only thing more impressive than Myers’ strikeouts and home run power are his bat flips. The kid came up and was an immediately upgrade for the Rays, hitting 4th in 25 of his 88 games, the most of any spot in the order, while providing a little punch and protection for Evan Longoria and the crew. Myers production is just the tip of the iceberg, as he is quite capable of hitting 30-35 home runs annually while striking out in bunches, just as he did in 2013. The major piece in the haul that the Rays acquired from Kansas City in the James Shields deal, Myers will be a nuisance to opposing clubs for years to come.
NL Rookie of the Year: Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Fernandez had quite a few people fighting him for the award this season, but he was just a bit more dominant than the competition. While he didn’t lead the lowly Marlins to the playoffs, like some of the other rookie of the year worthy players, Fernandez oozed confidence and had a feel for pitching that hasn’t been seen from many 20 or 21 year-old players in baseball history. He was nearly as unhittable as Clayton Kershaw, actually besting him (and everyone else) with a 5.8 hits per nine innings, best in MLB. While his character came into question by the Braves and Brian McCann after his extreme home run watching episode in September, it proved very little about how fantastic he is on the mound. While it is fair to question the future of the Miami Marlins due to their horrific owner, Jeffrey Loria, Jose Fernandez is a gem, who should continue to post awe-worthy numbers as long as his 6’2″, 240 pound frame will allow him to do so.
Honorable Mention: Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves; Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals; Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers; Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers; Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals; Khris Davis, OF, Milwaukee Brewers;
MLB Comeback Player of the Year: Mariano Rivera, RHP, New York Yankees
After tearing his ACL while shagging fly balls and being limited to just nine appearances in 2012, Rivera came back and picked up right where he left off in his storied career, finishing the 2013 with over 40 saves for the ninth time in his career. The 2013 season was his final season and it was full of terrible gifts that he received during his farewell tour, but it didn’t stop Rivera from maintaining the status quo, pitching stoically and professionally while shutting the door on the opposition with his dynamic cutter. The game will miss Rivera not because of the No. 42 officially going away forever, but because he was one of the classiest people to ever put on a uniform. His willingness to come back from his injury to leave on his terms showed his character as he now goes off to a happy retirement.
Another season has finished and with only ten teams having successful, playoff-bound seasons, it is time for the other 20 teams to look forward to the 2014 season. After 162 games, you probably have a pretty good idea of what your team needs. Below, you’ll find a list of upcoming free agents. Who would you like your team to sign? Comment away!!!
Needless to say, it is a weak, weak market this offseason. The Wild Card is Tanaka, who could be posted by his Japanese club. The youngest of the group, Tanaka has a 1.44 ERA over the last three seasons in 580.1 innings. At 6’2″, 205 pounds, Tanaka is more Yu Darvish (6’5″, 225) than Daisuke Matsuzaka (6′, 180), but he should fall somewhere in between. Garza wasn’t really all that productive after moving to Texas in a mid-season trade, and after battling elbow issues prior to the deal, his market may be very weary in its development. Johnson had an absolute nightmare of a season in Toronto, posting a 6.30 ERA over 16 starts (81.1 IP) before being shut down in late August with a forearm strain. Lincecum has shown some positive signs of his former self, but his fastball velocity continues to decrease and his previous contract (two-year, $40.5 million) seems highly unattainable. The remaining four, Jimenez, Kazmir (who sat in the mid-90′s all season, stayed healthy, and is young enough to produce through an extended contract), Nolasco, and Santana, had the best seasons of those reaching free agency in the coming months, but none of them are elite. On a good team, none of them should be more than a No.3 starter.
Bronson Arroyo, RHP, 37; A.J. Burnett, RHP, 37; Bartolo Colon, RHP, 41; Freddy Garcia, RHP, 37; Roy Halladay, RHP, 37; Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, 39; Ted Lilly, LHP, 38; Roy Oswalt, RHP, 35; Jake Westbrook, RHP, 36; Barry Zito, LHP, 36;
This group is full of guys who have performed very well at times over the last few years. Burnett has been lights out for Pittsburgh this season (209 K, 3.30 ERA in 191 IP), Dan Haren had a 3.29 ERA over his final 16 games (87.2 IP), Kuroda has a 3.40 ERA over his first six seasons in America, and Arroyo hasn’t missed a start in his career. The rest of the group is kind of all over the place, some battling through various injuries and others battling through inconsistencies that come with aging and the loss of stuff. This group could be pretty affordable due to their age and limitations, but they could be very valuable for whoever signs them, tossing useful innings or providing leadership within a rotation and clubhouse.
Several guys here coming off of injuries, while some have just long been ineffective, like Hughes and Pelfrey (who seemed to find a tick on his fastball late in the year). While none of these guys are locks to fill a rotation spot, they could become the 2014 version of what Kazmir provided to the Cleveland Indians. An incentive-laden contract for any of these pitchers is a worthy gamble by an intelligent club.
Considering the young, affordable, internal options that have stepped up and become useful in the closer’s role over the last several years like Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, and Kenley Jansen, as well as the highly-paid closers that have bombed (Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jose Valverde, for example), maybe the expensive, long-term deals that used to be handed out to closers in free agency could be a thing of the past. Not one of these free agents have maintained a closer’s job for the last three straight years without interruption, and, for that reason, should sign at a relative discount when compared to deals in years past.
Matt Albers, RHP, 31; Joba Chamberlain, RHP, 28; Jesse Crain, RHP, 32; Jason Frasor, RHP, 36; Rich Hill, LHP, 34; J.P. Howell, LHP, 31; Matt Guerrier, RHP, 35; Boone Logan, LHP, 29; Javier Lopez, LHP, 36; Oliver Perez, LHP, 32; Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, 31; Joe Smith, RHP, 30;
More pitchers who are all over the place in production and health, the relief pitcher is probably the most confusing position in all of baseball. Some dominate every year, like Mike Adams, and others, like Rodriguez, have been about as consistent as a politician. A tremendous bullpen typically happens due to gambling and winning on a risk, and being very, very cautious with how much money is given to free agents. None of these guys should receive more than $5 million per season, but it wouldn’t be surprising if some unintelligent front office makes the bold move and sets the market way too high.
It’s late in the baseball season and there are a lot of things that could be distracting you, such as following up on Johnny Manziel’s battle with the NCAA, completing your 21 fantasy football drafts, and wondering who will be Ace or Gary when you attend a Halloween party as the Incredibly Gay Duo. While all of those things are important, I present to you the world of baseball that you may have missed due to your fascination of Miley twerking.
- Yankees’ left fielder Alfonso Soriano leads MLB with 42 RBI and is tied with Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera for the lead in home runs (13) since the All-Star break. The Yankees are 21-16 since Soriano returned to New York and the Yanks are 2.5 games behind Tampa for the second Wild Card spot with 23 games remaining, including seven games against Boston (a four-game series begins today in New York) and three against the Rays.
- New Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Marlon Byrd is leading the majors in total bases since the All-Star break with 101 (he is tied with teammate Andrew McCutchen and San Diego outfielder Will Venable), and he is tied with Minnesota Twins shortstop Brian Dozier for extra-base hits since the break with 26. Byrd will look to continue his torrid pace in helping lead the Pirates to the NL Central title after the Buccos have already guaranteed their fans with the club’s first winning season since 1992.
- Washington Nationals’ outfielder Jayson Werth looked like a total waste of a seven-year, $126 million deal after his horrendous first season, 2011, in the nation’s capital, but he has hit .311/.392/.487 over the last two seasons while battling various injuries. If Werth continues his production next season and the Nats get a full, healthy season out of Bryce Harper and their very good pitching staff, the letdown from 2013 will be all forgiven in 2014 with an improved season. Werth, by the way, is 8th in MLB in OPS (.920).
- Toronto outfielder Rajai Davis doesn’t receive a lot of praise or playing time, but he has 40 stolen bases in just 93 games. With his .313 OBP, Davis has made an appearance on the bases just 93 times in 301 plate appearances. When you take away the two triples and four home runs (since he hasn’t stolen home and he can’t steal a base after a home run), it means that Davis has successfully stolen a base in 46 percent of his appearances on base. With his speed, who needed to wait for Billy Hamilton for an impact base runner?
- There are only six players with 30 or more home runs (Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Pedro Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Adam Dunn) after 22 players reached the tier in 2012 and 24 players reached in 2011. With 17 players within six homers or reaching 30, and several within that group unlikely to do so (I’m looking at you J.J. Hardy and the injured Domonic Brown), the top-tier of sluggers appears to be a very rare breed with pitching being so dominant.
Speaking of pitching…
- Max Scherzer is sitting at 19-2, but the names of other starting pitchers ranked near the top in wins is quite surprising: Jorge De La Rosa (16), Francisco Liriano (15), Chris Tillman (15), and Bartolo Colon (14) rank in the top eight in the strange statistic. While some writers will look at the win as valuable in determining who should win the Cy Young, it clearly has little use in determining who has been the best pitcher.
- It’s somewhat disappointing to see numbers fall with the drop in velocity, but that is exactly what has happened to former Cy Young favorites like Justin Verlander (12-10, 3.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and C.C. Sabathia (13-11, 4.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). With the fall from grace, though, has come exciting young arms like Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, and Matt Harvey (R.I.P.). Unfortunately for the aging arms, it doesn’t appear to be getting better, as Sabathia has a 6.88 ERA in the second half, while Verlander has a more respectable 3.77 ERA since the break.
- Speaking of those young arms and specifically Jose Fernandez, the young, Cuban-born right-hander has been filthy in the second half. His 0.83 WHIP is tops among all starting pitchers and the 70:13 K:BB in 54 innings is downright nasty. With the Marlins possibly looking to deal their only source of offense, Giancarlo Stanton, this winter, Fernandez will likely continue to post ridiculous numbers without wins going forward, although he has won five games since the break.
- For all of those still sitting back and waiting for Chris Sale‘s arm to explode, it hasn’t happened. The White Sox ace has been even better in 2013 than he was last season, posting a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP while improving his strikeout rate AND his walk rate on a per nine inning basis. After being locked up for five-years, $32.5 million (with team options totalling $26 million over 2018 and 2019), the Pale Hose look very wise in their string-bean investment.
- R.A. Dickey‘s knuckleball didn’t carry over to the AL East. The veteran right-hander has a 4.30 ERA and 1.27 WHIP after posting a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP from 2010 through 2012 with the New York Mets. The small parks, the strong teams, and the patient hitters are all a factor in the decline, but when you don’t really know which way the ball is going when using a trick pitch, that kind of makes things difficult, too.
- Yu Darvish is having an absolutely stupid season. He leads MLB with his 12.0 K/9 and he has struck out 240 of the 722 batters that he has faced (33.2 percent). While some Cy Young voters will look at Scherzer’s 19 wins and look stupid years from now, it is the unhittable Darvish, who has allowed 124 hits in 179.2 innings and a .192 BAA, who deserves the award.
There were seven no-hitters in Major League Baseball in 2012, a number that won’t be touched in 2013 due to only two occurring to this point, barring a complete hitting meltdown. However, pitching has dominated MLB since the big-headed monsters of the steroid era have begun to disappear from the game. Since 2000, pitching has taken over the game:
The numbers show a pretty dramatic increase in strikeouts since 2000 with a drop in walks, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. While it could be blamed on the lack of juicers in the game, there are still position players posting absurd offensive numbers, like Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Mike Trout. But what is it that has changed the game?
Pitchers, for their part, have seen increase almost across the board in their production:
Strikeouts per nine are up, walks are down, left on base percentage is up, and ERA is down. All of this could coincide with the fact that fastball velocity is up (since Pitch/FX stats have become available), but there could be other reasons for such dramatic increases in pitching skills, like fielding:
For those of you unfamiliar with RZR and OOZ, FanGraphs defines them this way:
RZR: via The Hardball Times: “Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out. Zone Rating was invented by John Dewan when he was CEO of Stats Inc. John is now the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, where he has revised the original Zone Rating calculation so that it now lists balls handled out of the zone (OOZ) separately (and doesn’t include them in the ZR calculation) and doesn’t give players extra credit for double plays (Stats had already made that change). We believe both changes improve Zone Ratings substantially. To get a full picture of a player’s range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ).”
OOZ: Plays made out of zone.
It appears that with fewer errors, a slight increase in fielding percentage, and more plays made outside of the fielder’s zone, tied in with more strikeouts and more runners left on base (likely due to fewer errors and more plays being made), could also be a reason behind pitcher dominance.
Velocity and defense go a long way in stopping the opposition, and with more teams accepting the value of defense (like Arizona dealing Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius and Texas giving a huge contract to Elvis Andrus), offensive production could continue to decline. When the likes of Gregorius (.705 OPS), Andrus (.632 OPS), and Andrelton Simmons (.659 OPS) are playing defense and not hitting at league average levels, that also helps the opposition pitching in a way. Is it worth giving up offense for defensive gain when the strong fielder is such a weak hitter? Getting an out and giving an out is equal to zero, right?
Considering that the top 10 starting pitchers in ERA (Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey (R.I.P.), Jose Fernandez, Adam Wainwright, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Yu Darvish, Hiroki Kuroda, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin) have an average age of 27.5, and that’s including the outliers (Kuroda at 38 and Wainwright at 31), there will likely be more years of pitching dominance on the horizon. Regardless of the video game-like numbers that a select few offensive players will produce, if or when top starting pitching prospects, like Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker, and Robert Stephenson finally reach the Majors and reach their potential (hopefully), we could feel additional breezes in the stands from the bats striking nothing but air as we watch more 3-1 baseball games.
Over past 50 seasons, Max Scherzer is 4th full-time starter to open 12-0 or better, joining McNally (1969), Guidry (1978), Clemens (1986).
Max Scherzer is now 12-0, which means that he has gone 20-2 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.01 ERA over 31 starts and 200.2 innings since the All Star break in 2012. His 241:52 K:BB over that time frame shows the ability of the Detroit Tigers 2006 first round pick, as he has become the most dominant starter in the Detroit rotation, including Justin Verlander.
While Scherzer doesn’t have the 1.71 ERA that Clay Buchholz possesses or the 143 strikeouts that Yu Darvish has compiled, but he does have one thing working in his favor: Jim Leyland, his manager, is going to be the American League manager in New York next month.
After leading MLB in K/9 in 2012 (11.1), Scherzer is now allowing the fewest hits per nine in the AL this year (6.0), and after having Similarity Scores (Baseball Reference) that put him with the likes of Chris Young, Trevor Cahill, and Shaun Marcum, Scherzer is definitely separating himself from that pack to become a legitimate ace.
Because so many people are clamoring over what I think, I figured it was time to make my All-Star ballot public, while filling up the rosters so that each team is represented. Feel free to ridicule and taunt my choices if you wish, but you’ll have to defend yourself.
1. Carlos Gomez, CF, MIL: Continuing his awesome breakout.
2. Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN: Huge production behind Votto in Cincy lineup.
3. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN: His numbers would look much better if he was pitched to.
4. David Wright, 3B, NYM: Hometown hero and best 3B in the NL.
5. Carlos Gonzalez, LF, COL: Hitting everywhere this year, even away from Coor’s.
6. Carlos Beltran, RF, STL: Defying age with a healthy, productive season.
7. Michael Cuddyer, DH, COL: Helping to make the Rockies a contender in 2013.
8. Buster Posey, C, SF: Tough choice over Molina, but his bat is still bigger.
9. Jean Segura, SS, MIL: Huge breakout by one of the key pieces in the Greinke deal with the Angels.
Jeff Locke, LHP, PIT
Jason Grilli, RHP, PIT
Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, WAS
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD
Patrick Corbin, LHP, ARZ
Cliff Lee, LHP, PHI
Adam Wainwright, RHP, STL
Shelby Miller, RHP, STL
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN
Craig Kimbrel, RHP, ATL
Edward Mujica, RHP, STL
Rafael Soriano, RHP, WAS
Travis Wood, LHP, CHI-C
Jeff Samardzija, RHP, CHI-C
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, PHI
Yadier Molina, C, STL
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARZ
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
Marco Scutaro, 2B, SF
Everth Cabrera, SS, SD
Giancarlo Stanton, RF, MIA
Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD
Domonic Brown, OF, PHI
Matt Carpenter, 2B, STL
Andrew McCutchen, CF, PIT
Biggest Snubs: Sergio Romo, RHP, SF; Kevin Gregg, RHP, CHI-C; Lance Lynn, RHP, STL; Allen Craig, 1B, STL; Mat Latos, RHP, CIN; Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF; Rex Brothers, LHP, COL; A.J. Burnett, RHP, PIT; Nate Schierholtz, OF, CHI-C; Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CIN; Ryan Braun, LF, MIL; Bryce Harper, OF, WAS; Ian Desmond, SS, WAS; Chris Johnson, 1B/3B, ATL; Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT; Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD; Wilin Rosario, C, COL; Evan Gattis, C/OF, ATL;
1. Mike Trout, LF, LAA: Having a “down” year when compared to his 2012 rookie season, which was one of the greatest in baseball history.
2. Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY: Tough choice but his bat is still huge and he gets the start in NYC.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET: His numbers are even better than his 2012 Triple Crown winning season.
5. Jose Bautista, RF, TOR: Production is slightly down, but Joey Bats is still a huge fan favorite.
6. David Ortiz, DH, BOS: Still producing as a member of AARP.
7. Adam Jones, CF, BAL: Continuing where he left off in 2012 and becoming one of the top players in baseball.
8. Joe Mauer, C, MIN: The power won’t ever be there again from his 2009 MVP season (28 HR), but he can find the gaps and be productive in ways that no other AL catcher can match.
9. Jhonny Peralta, SS, DET: Quietly having an incredible season as one of the worst defensive SS in baseball – loving his production, though.
Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish, RHP, TEX: He just struck you out and you didn’t even know he threw three pitches. Having a dominant season.
Jesse Crain, RHP, CHI-W
Felix Hernandez, RHP, SEA
Justin Masterson, RHP, CLE
Max Scherzer, RHP, DET
Mariano Rivera, RHP, NYY
Joe Nathan, RHP, TEX
Clay Buchholz, RHP, BOS
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, SEA
Ervin Santana, RHP, KC
Greg Holland, RHP, KC
Bartolo Colon, RHP, OAK
Matt Moore, LHP, TB
Bud Norris, RHP, HOU
Glen Perkins, LHP, MIN
Jim Johnson, RHP, BAL
Jason Castro, C, HOU
Adam Lind, 1B, TOR
Prince Fielder, 1B, DET
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE
Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
Manny Machado, 3B, BAL
Jed Lowrie, SS, OAK
Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX
Coco Crisp, OF, OAK
Biggest Snubs: Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK; J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL; Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX; Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA; Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA; Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B/DH, TOR; Carlos Santana, C, CLE; Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, NYY; Chris Sale, LHP, CHI-W; Addison Reed, RHP, CHI-W; Grant Balfour, RHP, OAK; Casey Janssen, RHP, TOR;
It is still early in the baseball season, but with about a week and a half gone since opening night, we’ve seen a near perfect game for Yu Darvish and plentiful RBI for Chris Davis. While Darvish was expected to take another step towards stardom this season, Davis’ production is still quite a surprise to some, though power has always been a part of his game.
10 Days in, what are the biggest surprises of the 2013 season?
Carl Crawford, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: .458/.519/.542, 2 2B, 2 SB
Crawford isn’t necessarily setting the world on fire, but the fact that he has played in all seven games for the Dodgers is shocking, considering his availability for opening day was in question since he didn’t make his Cactus League debut until March 23. While he has just two extra-base hits out of his 11 total hits, the fact that Crawford is running (though he’s just 2 for 4 on stolen base attempts), and productive in a loaded lineup are reasons enough to begin to wonder if he can return to his glory days of Tampa, rather than the disappointment that he had been in Boston. If Crawford stays productive around Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez, the Dodgers will get out of the NL West basement rather quickly.
John Buck, C, New York Mets: .393/.387/.859, 4 HR, 14 RBI
After watching Ike Davis tear apart pitching in the second half, you may have expected him to be the leader of the New York Mets this season; however, it’s the guy who was supposed to just be keeping a roster spot warm for Travis d’Arnaud, the slugging catching prospect that the Mets acquired from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey deal, John Buck. Buck has been mashing to this point, ranking second in the majors in RBI (behind Chris Davis) and tied for second in home runs. With the Miami Marlins around, the Mets should feel comfortable about not finishing last in their division, but Buck has led the Mets patchwork pitching staff, dominated by Matt Harvey‘s emergence as an ace, to a solid start.
Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: .458/.500/.750, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI
It’s too bad that Segura exhausted his rookie eligibility last year, otherwise, he’d be leading the pack in the early stages of the season for the title of NL Rookie of the Year. Segura had 151 at-bats last season (166 plate appearances), but he looks like he learned a little after hitting just .258/.315/.325 in 2012. The 23-year-old shortstop has a very interesting tool-set, with solid gap power and speed, which will allow for solid run production in a lineup with a healthy Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun…the only problem is that getting all four of those guys on the field at the same time may be harder than finding a needle in a haystack.
Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, .093 BAA, 14 IP, 19:4 K:BB
I mentioned Harvey under Buck, but it is worth noting again…he has been nothing short of dominant. He’s allowed just 8 baserunners over two starts, and the strikeouts limit the scoring opportunities, as well. Harvey had a 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 70:26 K:BB in 59.1 innings last season. Like Segura, just missing rookie eligibility in 2013, but a dynamic starting pitcher for a team desperate for pitching in the Mets.
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago Cubs: 1-1, 2.63 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .125 BAA, 13.2 IP, 22:5 K:BB
The former Notre Dame wideout is leading the majors in strikeouts early in the season and appears to be heading towards super-stardom ..which is why I traded him for next to nothing in my dynasty league this offseason. He has a lousy team around him but the 28-year-old has some help on the way, and the Cubs have him under team control through 2015. While he may not win many games, his peripheral statistics could make him look a lot like Felix Hernandez in fantasy formats.
Ryan Hanigan, C, Cincinnati Reds: .043/.148/.043, 1 for 23, 2 RBI
The Cincinnati Reds are playing their 9th game of the season and Devin Mesoraco is making his second start of the season. As most people would like to do, you can blame Dusty Baker for his inability to find value in young talent, unless, of course, it is a pitcher whose career he can ruin. Mesoraco is a sinner for going 0 for 4 in his only start, drawing a walk in the Reds 7-6 extra-inning loss to the Washington Nationals. Apparently, he may only start in day games following a night game, which should be great for the 24-year-old’s development. Ryan Hanigan, meanwhile, will continue to get the at-bats, and the Reds have to hope that batting 8th in the order doesn’t allow clubs to assume that there are two easy outs every time through the lineup.
Halladay (0-2, 14.73 ERA, 2.45 WHIP) and Hamels (0-2, 10.97 ERA, 1.97 WHIP) have posted ugly numbers to this point. Halladay’s shoulder issues from last season and his drop in velocity, along with Hamels’ shoulder soreness early in his offseason throwing progr am could be to blame for their struggles. Certainly, the Phillies have to be concerned, especially after dealing Vance Worley and Trevor May to Minnesota for Ben Revere, eliminating their ready or near-ready young pitching to replace Shane Victorino, who left for Boston this winter via free agency. Both starting pitchers earn substantial amounts this season (Halladay makes $20 million and Hamels makes $19.5 million), so a turnaround would be necessary for Philadelphia fans to not want to ring the Liberty Bell with Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s skull.
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants: .091/.130/.136, 2 for 22, 1 R, 1 2B
After Belt hit .293/.362/.423 in the second half of 2012 and .410/.432/.833 this spring, the Giants had to be hoping that they had developed a solid, middle-of-the-order addition to pair with Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. Things haven’t gone as planned for Belt to this point; however, he has been dealing with some neck issues. The defending champions will hope that he gets that under control, as well as the skills that he showcased over the last couple of months during spring training.
Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves: 5 for 53 (.094), 2 HR, 3 RBI, 7 R, 19:7 K:BB
Heyward (.083/.267/.208) and Upton (.103/.212/.207) have combined for some pretty useless numbers. The Braves are 7-1 going into Wednesday’s game despite the lack of production from two of their stars. Needless to say, Upton’s pricey contract came with big expectations. We’ll see if his big payday after leaving Tampa isn’t going to take the same trip that Carl Crawford endured in Boston.
Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs: 12.27 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, .444 BAA, 1-1, 1 for 2 in save opportunities
Considering the short leash that the Cubs had on Marmol, you have to wonder if it was even worth giving him a chance to prove himself or build trade value when there was a 70-30 chance that he was going to implode. And…implode he did. Kyuji Fujikawa has already replaced Marmol as the Cubs’ closer, and his 8.10 ERA is solid since he is 2 for 2 in save opportunities. It’s a process, Cubs fans, and you should be used to that by now.
Brett Myers, SP, Cleveland Indians: 0-1, 12.19 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 7 HR allowed, 10.1 IP, 4:2 K:BB
When the Indians signed Myers, they wanted him to be a solid innings eating starting pitcher, allowing them to slide him into the No.3 spot in the rotation behind Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez. Myers was to provide solid depth due to Masterson and Jimenez lacking in their ability to throw strikes, resulting in high pitch counts and short outings. However, Myers was a risk since he had pitched out of the bullpen for the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox the last two seasons, and while he had transitioned from starter to relief and back to starter before in his career, guaranteeing Myers $7 million to do that again could leave Indians fans scalping themselves every fifth day. Myers has allowed SEVEN home runs in 10.1 innings, or about six every 9 innings. Some batting practice pitchers don’t average that stat. Myers is either hurt or should retire, but there isn’t any in between on those choices, and a neck injury from watching home runs could be to blame.
Well, after finding a groove as a relief pitcher in the playoffs last year, the Giants gave “The Freak” another chance in a starting role this season. He has only allowed a .175 average in his two starts, and if he wasn’t shutting down those that do hit the ball, he’d have an ERA right around Halladay’s. The free passes need to stop if Lincecum is going to re-establish himself as a valuable pitcher, and he needs to do that if he hopes to score a big contract as a free agent this winter.
The Houston Astros are going to be bad in 2013. People in Houston and around the world should have known that before the season even started. The first game, an 8-2 win over the Texas Rangers, may have been the high point of the season. It was Opening Day, the Astros’ first as an American League club, while Houston won their 4,000th game in franchise history.
Since then, the Astros haven’t scored a run over two games, including coming just one out from having a perfect game tossed against them by Rangers’ right-hander Yu Darvish on Tuesday night. In fact, in Tuesday and Wednesday’s games, the Astros managed just seven hits, and things don’t look bright for the Astros going forward.
Certainly, a 162-game season could result in a total turn-around and a drastic change in the club’s roster, but after three games, the Astros lineup has a miserable .172/.206/.258 line over 93 at-bats. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but the team has an incredible 43 strikeouts in 93 at-bats, with just four walks.
The Major League Baseball record for team strikeouts is 1,529 by the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks. Mark Reynolds (211), Adam LaRoche (172), Justin Upton (152), Kelly Johnson (148), and Chris Young (145) seemed to allow Chase Field to go air condition free with the free swinging they provided that summer, but if the Astros keep up their current pace, they’ll strikeout 2,322 times.
Brett Wallace, Chris Carter, Carlos Pena, and Rick Ankiel have combined for 26 strikeouts in just 39 at-bats, so with their pace and their history of high strikeout rates, all four would be capable of over 170 strikeouts over 500 at-bats. Wallace will likely be gone from the picture when Jonathan Singleton proves himself ready after his 50-game suspension for marijuana abuse has been completed, but the wind in Houston could reach extreme levels throughout the summer.
With a club likely to lose upwards of 110 games in 2013, fans of the Astros have to root for excellent trades from GM Jeff Luhnow later this season. With a philosophy of acquiring talent through trades and drafts, the rebuilding process in Houston will take time. Luhnow was the head of the St. Louis Cardinals player development staff for several years prior to moving to Houston in December of 2011, and as you look at their minor league system, you can imagine what the Houston Astros could become in five years.
- Yu (Almost) So Perfect (40yearrangerfan.mlblogs.com)
- Confident Darvish breeds excitement for Rangers (mlb.mlb.com)
- Houston has problems but unorthodox approach is still the right one (mlb.si.com)
- Astros kick off the 2013 season with a victory (hardballtalk.nbcsports.com)
- New-Look Astros Shine In Opener (click2houston.com)
Baseball nerds are looking at all kinds of statistics that weren’t listed on the back of a baseball card when we were growing up. With the newer FIP, BABIP, and WAR statistics that have become a part of analysis of player abilities, it seems to be easier to project rebound candidates, potential breakouts, or potential flops based on these newer, sabermetric-based statistics.
FIP Winners and Losers for 2013
Fangraphs.com defined FIP as measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. FIP can be calculated with the following formula:
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. Fangraphs.com also provided the following table to show how the values should be interpreted:
Pitchers to Target
Here are some pitchers who could have solid seasons based on an inflated ERA and solid FIP values:
Joe Blanton, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: Blanton was not good in 2012…at least on paper. At 10-13 with a 4.71 ERA over 191 innings, you’d think that he was one of the weaker pitchers in the National League. Not so. Blanton posted an FIP of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.26 last season, while walking just 1.60 batters per nine innings, his best rate since 2007 (1.57) when he was still with Oakland. For Blanton, his issues stem from the longball, as he gave up 29 last season and has a career HR/FB rate of 10.3 percent, which is close to the league average (roughly 10 percent), but that statistic has climbed to 13.9 percent in 2011 and 15.3 percent in 2012. The fact is, Angels Stadium of Anaheim ranked as the 4th lowest scoring park in baseball in 2012. Joe Blanton could have a huge year for the Angels. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton only help his cause.
Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Wainwright has had a very good career. As a starting pitcher, he has a 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 3.01 K/BB over 996 innings and 151 starts. In 2012, Wainwright’s ERA “ballooned” to 3.94, which was a pretty drastic increase considering that in 2010 (he missed 2011 due to TJ surgery) that number was 2.42, while it was 2.63 in 2009. The time on the shelf could have had something to do with it, but Wainwright’s FIP was 3.10 in 2012, 6th best in MLB. With Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse seemingly gone from the equation in 2013, the Cardinals really need Wainwright to rebound. Nerdy baseball statistics show that he is well on his way to do just that. The inflated .315 BABIP (career .293) may have played a role in the ERA inflation, as the 9.9 percent HR/FB (career 8.0), as well. Water under the bridge.
Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers: The rookie season that Darvish had seems to have gone completely unnoticed, thanks to the fishy outfielder for the Angels. 16 wins, 221 strikeouts over 191.1 innings, a 3.90 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP shows that Darvish was very good in his transition to MLB from Japan. While the ERA looks a bit exaggerated, it was just that. When looking at Darvish, look at the 10.4 K/9 and the 3.29 FIP for the 2012 season. His ability to finish off hitters was very impressive and, as long as he holds up better than Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideo Nomo physically, Darvish is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in MLB.
Pitchers to Avoid
Here are some pitchers who may have terrible seasons based on a negative correlation to their FIP and ERA:
Jason Vargas, LHP, Los Angeles Angels: While Vargas is moving from Seattle (No.1 pitcher’s park) to Los Angeles (No.4 pitcher’s park) with Joe Blanton, it is unlikely that he will have a season like he had for the Mariners in 2012. Vargas has managed ERAs the last three seasons of 3.78 in 2010, 4.25 in 2011, and 3.85 in 2012, while posting FIPs of 3.95 of 2010, 4.09 in 2011, and 4.69 last season. Somehow, Vargas managed to give up 35 home runs last season, 26 of them on the road, even while pitching in Safeco. So…can Angels Stadium hold as many balls and make him valuable, or is this the year that reality and statistics set in on Vargas? Even when he was posting an ERA of 3.96, a WHIP of 1.25, and winning 33 games over the last three seasons, it seemed to be with quite a bit of luck.
Clayton Richard, LHP, San Diego Padres: You have to love Petco Park, right? Richard should, as he managed to keep his ERA at 3.99 last season with an FIP of 4.62. Richard has kept himself somewhat useful in the world of fantasy baseball by posting a 3.88 ERA over the last three seasons and 520 innings for the Friars, even while posting a below average WHIP of 1.34 and going 33-32 over 84 starts. Richard may continue to keep his ERA, but with his HR/FB ballooning to 15 percent last season and the fences being moved in this season at Petco Park, is it going to last?
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Hellickson is either really good or a ticking time bomb. He doesn’t strike many out, as his 5.93 K/9 is 66th in baseball since the start of the 2011 season. His .242 BABIP is the lowest in baseball since the start of 2011, just in front of Jered Weaver (.246) and Justin Verlander (.255). Hellickson’s career ERA is a sexy 3.06 and his career WHIP is 1.19; however, his FIP in 2011 was 4.44 (when his ERA was 2.95) and 4.60 in 2012 (when his ERA was 3.10). He turns 26 in April and has just 402.1 innings pitched in his career, but can he really maintain the success that he has had in the ERA, WHIP, and BABIP categories if his FIP continues to inflate?
Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals: With Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, and Dan Haren in the rotation, do the Nationals really need to expect a lot from Detwiler in 2013? They probably shouldn’t. Detwiler has long had the stuff to be a solid starting pitcher and finally received an opportunity last year. The low to mid-90′s fastball would say that Detwiler has shutdown stuff, but his 5.7 K/9 as a starter in 2012 says otherwise. While he posted a 3.40 ERA in 2012 and an FIP of 4.04 (which is right around average), what is in store for the 27-year-old left-hander in 2013? The Nationals have already shown a short leash on Detwiler, pulling him from the rotation in late May of last year after nine starts, even after he posted a solid 3.88 ERA. Detwiler, like Hellickson, seems to have the stuff to continue posting solid peripheral statistics, in spite of a potentially alarmingly high FIP and an inability to miss bats.
How quickly you can be forgotten. With the Rookie of the Year announcements on November 12, the world was, once again, focused on Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. While Yu Darvish, Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, and Wade Miley got lost in the shuffle, some names seemed to be totally thrown out during the 2012 season.
While Trout had, quite possibly, the greatest season EVER by a rookie, it is understandable that others, specifically in the American League, were overlooked. Darvish and Cespedes were the highlights of voter ballots, but Wei-Lin Chen and Jarrod Parker were the only other players who were put on the ballot by voters.
While Matt Moore didn’t have a tremendous season, could the domination that other rookies had in the 2012 season create a lack of buzz for Moore going into the 2013 season?
Matt Moore turns 24 in June of 2013 and he has a nice resume to this point in his career. Prior to the 2012 season, Moore was rated as the No.2 prospect in baseball by Baseball America - Harper was No.1 and Trout was No.3. In the minor leagues, Moore was a combined 28-21 with a 2.64 ERA and a 700:212 K:BB in 497.1 innings, including a 12-3 record with a 1.92 ERA and 210:46 K:BB in 155 innings in 2011.
Moore arrived in Tampa late in 2011, appearing in three games, when he posted a 15:3 K:BB in just 9.1 innings, including his 11-strikeout start on September 22 against the Yankees (his only start). When the Rays were in the playoffs, Moore started Game One of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers, tossing seven shutout innings. Moore tossed three relief innings in Game Four, allowing one run, as the Rays lost the series in four games to the Rangers, who went on to the World Series and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals.
The 2012 season was not fantastic for Moore, but there is little reason to doubt his ability to become an ace for the Tampa Bay Rays. He was 11-11 with a 3.81 ERA, posting a 175:81 K:BB in 177.1 innings. Moore battled location issues, which increased his WHIP to 1.35 in 2012, something that never seemed to be an issue at any point in his minor league and brief major league career before the 2012 season.
Moore had a period when he seemed to put everything together, though, which was a pretty significant time of the season. From June 1 through the end of August, Moore was 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA over 99.2 innings (16 starts) while posting a 94:41 K:BB and 1.25 WHIP. He struggled mightily in September (1-3, 5.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), but he may have been tired, as he had reached 156 innings and 26 starts prior to the start of the month.
(While Moore ended up tossing a combined 174.1 innings between the minors and majors in 2011, the dramatic nature of tossing more innings per start and pitching every fifth day for a team fighting for a playoff spot for most of the season may have played a role in his fatigue.)
Regardless, Moore had an up and down season in 2012 with the Rays, but he shouldn’t be an afterthought when talking about the top young players in baseball, especially in the American League. Darvish, Chen, and Cespedes played professionally in their respective countries prior to drawing Rookie of the Year votes in 2012. Though their early success shouldn’t be discounted, the success of actual rookies, like Parker and Moore, shouldn’t be tossed aside, either.
Once upon a time, there was a pitcher named David Price, who came up in September of 2008 and made a similar impact on the team from Tampa Bay, making five appearances during the season and another five in the playoffs. In his first full season, 2009, Price was 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA and a 102:54 K:BB in 125.1 innings. Price had an ugly WHIP of 1.35 in his 23 starts in 2009.
David Price, a 2012 AL Cy Young finalist, has gone 51-24 with a 2.93 ERA over 644 innings, with a 1.14 WHIP and a 611:201 K:BB in 96 starts since his rookie season.
While his rookie season was underwhelming, David Price was not on the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year ballot, just like Moore. Could Matt Moore have a parallel career to Price? It looks pretty similar at this point, and the sky is the limit with the young left-hander with dynamic stuff.
Winning the Rookie of the Year is not the be-all-end-all to a baseball career. Just look at the careers of Ben Grieve, Marty Cordova, Pat Listach, and other one year wonders. Matt Moore is on his way to stardom, Rookie of the Year or not.