Results tagged ‘ Todd Frazier ’
Why the Reds Should Bring Up Billy Hamilton…Now.
Yeah, I know it’s early. Yeah, I know the Reds are in first place in the NL Central. Yeah, I know that after getting beaten down by the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday afternoon that Cincinnati fans are concerned about their team. There are reasons to be concerned, but it starts with the club’s philosophies.
After the club traded for Shin-Soo Choo, people in Cincinnati knew that they had an upgrade to their leadoff spot. Choo is now a career .312/.397/.502 hitter when he bats first over his career, and his five hit-by-pitches and five walks have allowed Choo to post a .511 on-base percentage early in the 2013 season. His three home runs are tied with Todd Frazier for the team lead, as well, allowing Reds’ fans to say: “Drew Stubbs, who?”
Well, Drew Stubbs the fine defensive center fielder. Drew Stubbs, who ranked as the 6th best defensive center fielder in baseball since arriving to the Queen City in 2009, posting a UZR/150 of 3.7, just behind Austin Jackson and in front of B.J. Upton in the rankings. Drew Stubbs, who was 14th in MLB from 2009 through 2012 with 110 stolen bases. Drew Stubbs, who scored 285 runs in 486 games for Cincinnati, despite a .312 on-base percentage, and a .244/.321/.372 line in 873 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter.
Drew Stubbs was everything wrong about Cincinnati Reds baseball, at least, that is what it seemed like. His free-swinging ways resulted in 588 strikeouts in 1,791 at-bats or 32.8 percent of his at-bats. However, he did provide two things that Choo still can’t, speed and defense.
Shin-Soo Choo has a tremendous arm, which he needs when compared to Stubbs defensively due to his -42.8 UZR/150 rating, meaning: Choo would be nearly 43 runs below average defensively than the league’s average outfielder. It isn’t like Choo’s lack of defensive skills were the reason that the Reds lost 10-0 on Wednesday, but with Ryan Ludwick out for the next several months after surgery to repair his labrum and Chris Heisey hitting just .161/.188/.323 in 34 plate appearances, should the Reds go to super-prospect Billy Hamilton now?
Calling up Billy Hamilton would do three things:
1) It would start Hamilton’s arbitration clock early, making him Super Two-eligible due to service time, which means that he would be expensive quicker than most Post-June callups, and potentially reach free agency sooner.
2) It would allow the Reds to put Shin-Soo Choo in left field where teams have hidden other awful defensive outfielders over the years, such as Adam Dunn in Cincinnati and Manny Ramirez in Boston. He may not be a liability in left, which would allow him to continue to be solid offensively while playing every day.
3) It would make the Reds have Hamilton, Choo, Votto, and Bruce as left-handed hitters in the every day lineup.
That third thing is probably more reasonable as to why the Reds wouldn’t want to call up Hamilton right now, though the arbitration figures could also factor in, as it seems unnecessary to rush Hamilton with such a small sample size out of Chris Heisey. It is, after all, just 34 plate appearances, but it is hard to ignore Hamilton’s .364/.417/.545 start in Triple-A, while stealing six bases in six games for the Louisville Bats.
Billy Hamilton isn’t ready to leadoff at the major league level. Billy Hamilton isn’t ready to become a game-changing talent from the very moment that he steps onto the field at Great American Ballpark. Billy Hamilton isn’t going to post a .962 OPS over the course of a major league or minor league season. However, Billy Hamilton could ignite the bottom of the Reds order by hitting seventh, bunting over Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier for Ryan Hanigan to get RBI opportunities with his fantastic contact skills (Hanigan has a career 137:163 K:BB in 1,347 plate appearances and a 10.2 percent strikeout rate).
Billy Hamilton provides speed that would benefit the Reds defensively. Michael Bourn, the Cleveland Indians’ new center fielder, has a UZR/150 of 11.1 since becoming a regular in 2007. B.J. Upton is second with a 4.1 UZR/150. Hamilton is still making the transition from shortstop to center field, but his speed alone makes him a Bourn-like defensive talent in center, and his 264 stolen bases since the start of the 2011 minor league season makes him worth bringing up now to impact the lineup.
While questions about team-control, arbitration, and the presence of another left-hander in the lineup are worth considering, the Reds have very little to lose and plenty to gain by calling up Billy Hamilton right now and putting him in center. As the club heads to Pittsburgh and PNC Park, a notorious pitcher’s park, will defense become more important than potential offensive production? While Devin Mesoraco rots on the bench due to Ryan Hanigan’s ability to handle the pitching staff, the Reds have already shown their philosophy. Now is the time for Billy Hamilton.
Related articles
- Ryan Ludwick’s Injury Could Hurt The Reds For The Long Run (mlbreports.com)
- No Billy Hamilton for Reds yet (wcpo.com)
- Billy Hamilton: I’m a game-changer (wcpo.com)
- Billy Hamilton isn’t Reds’ top prospect (espn.go.com)
- Choo – Trading Defense for Offense (natinosebleeds.wordpress.com)
Matt Moore – Remember Him?
How quickly you can be forgotten. With the Rookie of the Year announcements on November 12, the world was, once again, focused on Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. While Yu Darvish, Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, and Wade Miley got lost in the shuffle, some names seemed to be totally thrown out during the 2012 season.
While Trout had, quite possibly, the greatest season EVER by a rookie, it is understandable that others, specifically in the American League, were overlooked. Darvish and Cespedes were the highlights of voter ballots, but Wei-Lin Chen and Jarrod Parker were the only other players who were put on the ballot by voters.
While Matt Moore didn’t have a tremendous season, could the domination that other rookies had in the 2012 season create a lack of buzz for Moore going into the 2013 season?
Matt Moore turns 24 in June of 2013 and he has a nice resume to this point in his career. Prior to the 2012 season, Moore was rated as the No.2 prospect in baseball by Baseball America - Harper was No.1 and Trout was No.3. In the minor leagues, Moore was a combined 28-21 with a 2.64 ERA and a 700:212 K:BB in 497.1 innings, including a 12-3 record with a 1.92 ERA and 210:46 K:BB in 155 innings in 2011.
Moore arrived in Tampa late in 2011, appearing in three games, when he posted a 15:3 K:BB in just 9.1 innings, including his 11-strikeout start on September 22 against the Yankees (his only start). When the Rays were in the playoffs, Moore started Game One of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers, tossing seven shutout innings. Moore tossed three relief innings in Game Four, allowing one run, as the Rays lost the series in four games to the Rangers, who went on to the World Series and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals.
The 2012 season was not fantastic for Moore, but there is little reason to doubt his ability to become an ace for the Tampa Bay Rays. He was 11-11 with a 3.81 ERA, posting a 175:81 K:BB in 177.1 innings. Moore battled location issues, which increased his WHIP to 1.35 in 2012, something that never seemed to be an issue at any point in his minor league and brief major league career before the 2012 season.
Courtesy: fantasyfurnace.com
Moore had a period when he seemed to put everything together, though, which was a pretty significant time of the season. From June 1 through the end of August, Moore was 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA over 99.2 innings (16 starts) while posting a 94:41 K:BB and 1.25 WHIP. He struggled mightily in September (1-3, 5.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), but he may have been tired, as he had reached 156 innings and 26 starts prior to the start of the month.
(While Moore ended up tossing a combined 174.1 innings between the minors and majors in 2011, the dramatic nature of tossing more innings per start and pitching every fifth day for a team fighting for a playoff spot for most of the season may have played a role in his fatigue.)
Regardless, Moore had an up and down season in 2012 with the Rays, but he shouldn’t be an afterthought when talking about the top young players in baseball, especially in the American League. Darvish, Chen, and Cespedes played professionally in their respective countries prior to drawing Rookie of the Year votes in 2012. Though their early success shouldn’t be discounted, the success of actual rookies, like Parker and Moore, shouldn’t be tossed aside, either.
For example…
Once upon a time, there was a pitcher named David Price, who came up in September of 2008 and made a similar impact on the team from Tampa Bay, making five appearances during the season and another five in the playoffs. In his first full season, 2009, Price was 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA and a 102:54 K:BB in 125.1 innings. Price had an ugly WHIP of 1.35 in his 23 starts in 2009.
David Price, a 2012 AL Cy Young finalist, has gone 51-24 with a 2.93 ERA over 644 innings, with a 1.14 WHIP and a 611:201 K:BB in 96 starts since his rookie season.
While his rookie season was underwhelming, David Price was not on the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year ballot, just like Moore. Could Matt Moore have a parallel career to Price? It looks pretty similar at this point, and the sky is the limit with the young left-hander with dynamic stuff.
Winning the Rookie of the Year is not the be-all-end-all to a baseball career. Just look at the careers of Ben Grieve, Marty Cordova, Pat Listach, and other one year wonders. Matt Moore is on his way to stardom, Rookie of the Year or not.
Giants AT Reds, Game 5
Game 5 of the NLDS series between the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds will take place on Thursday afternoon at 1:07 (if the Oakland A’s beat the Detroit Tigers Wednesday night) or 2:07 (if the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland A’s on Wednesday night). Kind of confusing for those who hold tickets, but this is what to expect…
Mat Latos is officially starting on Thursday for Cincinnati. Latos came in for Johnny Cueto in Game 1 due to Cueto’s oblique strain, which he suffered after tossing eight pitches. Latos tossed four innings on Saturday night, allowing one earned run (2.25 ERA), but he was not considered for the Game 4 start because: 1) Latos had never pitched on three-days rest, and 2) Latos has been battling the flu.
Matt Cain, the loser of Game 1, will take the ball for the Giants in Game 5. Cain allowed three earned runs over five innings (5.40 ERA) at AT&T Park on Saturday. The Giants were 22-10 in Cain’s 32 starts in 2012, and while Cain managed to go 16-5, he lost back-to-back decisions twice this season.
Dusty Baker will probably go back to Ryan Hanigan behind home plate and Scott Rolen at third, especially after Todd Frazier failed to impress the veteran-loving manager with his 0-for-3, one RBI performance on Wednesday.
Bruce Bochy would be wise to stick with Joaquin Arias at short and Hector Sanchez behind the plate, as their eight-run outburst in Game 4 was a far cry from the team’s performance in the first three games. Arias is 3-for-6 with two doubles and three runs, while Sanchez was 1-for-2 with two walks in Game 4, his first opportunity of the postseason.
After going 12-for-95 (.126) with four runs in the first three games, the Giants were 11-for-33 (.333) on Wednesday.
Cincinnati scored 14 runs in the first two games of the series, but have scored four runs in the last two games, while going 13-for-68 (.191) as a team.
With the potential 10:07 AM PT starting time, you have to consider how San Francisco will function. The Giants were just 32-32 in day games in 2012, while Cincinnati was 39-17.
Cincinnati fans are weary of the potential collapse after waiting nearly 17 years between postseason wins. Their dreams of watching the Reds clinch the series at home will come down to a single game, now.
San Francisco is riding high and has the momentum. Their big night could leave their fans wondering if they saved any offense for Thursday’s deciding game.
Game 5. Thursday afternoon from Great American Ballpark. The MLB postseason at its finest.
2012 MLB Awards
The Second Annual Baseball Haven “I’m Always Right Before the Media Figures It Out” Awards are officially ready, just one day after the season. These guys may not win the awards below, but they certainly SHOULD.
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
.330/.393/.606, 109 R, 40 2B, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 4 SB
Cabrera gets the award because he won the first Triple Crown in MLB since Carl Yastrzemski won it in 1967, AND because he carried the Tigers into the postseason in September and early October, blasting 11 home runs, driving in 30 runs and posting a 1.071 OPS in 31 games. He moved to a position, third base, to accommodate the acquisition of Prince Fielder. No one ever said that he would make a difference there defensively, but his .966 fielding percentage was still better than the league average for third baseman, .952. Sure, his WAR was lower than Mike Trout, but Mike Trout is at home and Cabrera proved his worth in 2012.
Honorable Mention: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers; Robinson Cano, New York Yankees; Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers;
NL MVP: Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
.336/.408/.549, 78 R, 39 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 103 RBI, 1 SB
Posey led MLB in batting average and OPS+, handling catching duties and occasionally playing first base to give his reconfigured knee together after a devastating injury in 2011. Posey’s absence from the Giants 2011 season may have had a lot to do with their inability to make the playoffs after winning the 2010 World Series over the Texas Rangers. Posey’s transformation from a collegiate shortstop to a top-level offensive catcher has gone about as smoothly as anyone could have anticipated. Even while playing in an extreme pitcher’s park, AT&T Park, Posey is one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.
Honorable Mention:Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers; Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates; Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals; Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves;
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
17-8, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 238.1 IP, 239:60 K:BB
Verlander’s statistics in 2012 were not as impressive as his totals in 2011, but that doesn’t make him any less impressive. Verlander was the lone consistent starter for most of the 2012 season for the AL Central champion Tigers, and he scored a relationship with Kate Upton on top of that. The man is just a winner. The filth that he possesses rivals only Larry Flynt.
Honorable Mention:Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels; Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners; Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays; David Price, Tampa Bay Rays;
NL Cy Young: Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
19-9, 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 217 IP, 170:49 K:BB
He pitches in an awful park for pitchers, he is on one of the best teams in the National League, and he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons, so Cueto deserves this award. While he doesn’t pitch in a major market and he did have a few stretches where he seemed to “lose it”, Cueto finally tossed over 200 innings, and, after suffering through a rough spot, he dominated late in the season. If you put the ballpark factor into play here, Cueto would garner many more votes. He should win, but it is unlikely thanks to the New York bias and the cool story that comes along with R.A. Dickey.
Honorable Mention:R.A. Dickey, New York Mets; Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals; Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers; Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds;
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics and Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles
Who says you can’t share an award? These two managers deserve some sort of plaque and a key from their respective city’s mayors for the work that they did this season. With the high spending Angels and Rangers out west for the A’s and the Red Sox and Yankees in the east with the O’s, the teams found creative ways to maintain a solid group of players on their rosters through trading and drafting well over the last several seasons. As both teams head into the ALDS, thanks to Friday’s victory over Texas for Baltimore, this could only be the beginning for one of these teams.
Honorable Mention:Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays; Robin Ventura, Chicago White Sox;
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
With his All-Star outfielder banned 50-games for a positive drug test, his one-time ace, Tim Lincecum, posting a 5.18 ERA over 33 starts, and injuries to Pablo Sandoval throughout the season, Bochy managed to lead the Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. While you can question him for his lack of faith in Brandon Belt during most of the season, he seemed to make the right decision more often than not with his club.
Honorable Mention:Dusty Baker, Cincinnati Reds; Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals; Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates; Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals;
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
.326/.399/.564, 129 R, 27 2B, 8 3B, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB
A WAR of 10.7 in his rookie season, which led the league, shows just how special Trout is going to continue to be. Having just turned 21 years old in early August, the future is as bright as a supernova, as Trout’s power, speed, on-base skills, and fielding ability will continue to make him a perennial MVP candidate. You can certainly argue that he should win the award this season over Miguel Cabrera, but due to the Tigers landing in the playoffs and the first Triple Crown in 45 years, it has to go with the Tigers chubby third baseman.
Honorable Mention:Yeonis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics; Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers; Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles;
NL Rookie of the Year: Todd Frazier, INF/OF, Cincinnati Reds
Frazier was a monster while the Cincinnati Reds went two months without their best player, Joey Votto. He finished the 2012 season with an .829 OPS was second to Colorado catcher Wilin Rosario amongst NL rookies…I see you thought I was going to say Bryce Harper there, but he posted an .817 OPS. While Harper energized his club upon his callup and had one of the best quotes of the year (“That’s a clown question, bro), it was Frazier’s bat and versatility that helped the Cincinnati Reds win the NL Central.
Honorable Mention:Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals; Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies; Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks; Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs;
Comeback Player of the Year: Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres
2011: .289/.374/.399, 43 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 13 SB
2012: .286/.376/.498, 95 R, 31 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 115 RBI, 17 SB
Petco can put bats to sleep like the vets that work out of the back of actual Petco stores can do to your pet; however, Headley was one of the few bright spots for the rebuilding San Diego Padres, delivering MVP-like numbers for the Friars. At the age of 28 and with two years of arbitration eligibility, you have to wonder if the Padres are going to trade him this offseason for more prospects, especially after his surprising season and how often Headley’s name came up at the trade deadline.
Honorable Mention: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees;
National League Rookie of the Year
The Rookie of the Year award has been given each year since 1947, when Jackie Robinson won the award, with each league gaining a recipient in 1949. It was renamed for Robinson in July of 1987, a fitting tribute to the legendary game-changer.
The National League is, perhaps, in the middle of one of the greatest races for the award in it’s 65-year history. While one name has all of the hype, there are several players who should garner votes, potentially creating the closest vote in the history of the award.
Who Will Win:
Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
Resume:
.259/.330/.449, 20 2B, 6 3B, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 13 sB, 98:47 K:BB in 437 AB. 19 years old and playing on the first place team in the NL East.
Why He Should Win:
In order for the hype to reach where it is supposed to, Harper should win the NL ROY award. While he garners more attention than others, and deservedly so considering his age and numbers, Harper hasn’t even showed a portion of what his number will eventually become.
Harper is getting hot at the right moment, as well. Since August 29 the Nationals are 7-1 and Harper is hitting .400/.471/.967 with 2 2B, 5 HR, 10 RBI and a 4:4 K:BB in 30 AB. By finishing the season strong and posting ridiculous numbers, Harper could lead the Nationals through the final month of the season and into the playoffs like the elite player that he is going to be.
Who Should Win:
Todd Frazier, 1B/3B/OF, Cincinnati Reds
Resume:
.289/.347/.531, 23 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 3 SB and a 91:32 K:BB in 367 AB. 26 years old and provides the Reds with great flexibililty to extend their current 8.5 game lead in the NL Central.
Why He Should Win:
33-14…that’s the record that the Reds had when Frazier was in the lineup and Joey Votto was on the disabled list. Frazier hit .321 in 165 AB with 9 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 32 RBI in those 47 games.
While he is older than Harper due to his experience playing college baseball, it doesn’t change the fact that his numbers are better across the board. In fact, you could say that Frazier has been more vital to the success of his club due to his play while Joey Votto, perhaps the best hitter in the National League, missed those 47 games with his two knee surgeries.
Sleeper Candidate #1:
Wade Miley, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resume:
14-9, 27 games (24 starts), 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 117:30 K:BB in 164.2 IP. 25 years old.
Why He Should Win:
While Miley’s team is 9.5 games out in the NL West, you can’t blame the young left-hander for their struggles. On top of his total statistics (above), Miley has been even more impressive in his 10 starts since the All-Star break, compiling a 2.67 ERA with a 47:9 K:BB in 64 IP, allowing just two home runs with his 5.22 K:BB. Solid for a rookie.
With the addition of Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs from the Diamondbacks system, Miley could be the leader of the next group of “Baby Backs”.
Sleeper Candidate #2:
Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado Rockies
Resume:
.251/.296/.528, 15 2B, 23 HR, 58 RBI, 3 SB and a 78:30 K:BB in 303 AB. 23 years old.
Why He Should Win:
Rosario has played a solid catcher for the lowly, 20-games-out Colorado Rockies. While his on-base and contact skills are lacking, Rosario has insane amounts of pop in his bat. Beyond that, he guns down 39% of would-be base stealers (league average is 27%), and the Rockies could really improve in the next couple of seasons with Rosario’s power, a full season of Josh Rutledge, and a healthy Troy Tulowitzki to add to Carlos Gonzalez.
Honorable Mention:
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs; Norichika Aoki, Milwaukee Brewers; Mike Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers; Lucas Harrell, Houston Astros;
While the vote will probably come down to the battle between Todd Frazier and Bryce Harper, there really are several players who are worthy of votes for the NL Rookie of the Year.
Statistical Oddities
Melky Cabrera was once a slap-hitting fatty for the New York Yankees. We all know now that he changed his body and skills with synthetic testosterone, but his statistics in the 2012 season were nothing short of impressive, enhanced or not. Cabrera’s .346/.390/.516 with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs, 60 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 459 at-bats were enough to have him leading the NL for the batting crown prior to his dopey doping suspension, but now we’ll all wonder, once again, just how much of his improvement and abilities can be traced back to the fake hormones.
Outside of Melky Cabrera, there are other strange statistics that baseball fans may be overlooking this season. While everyone watches Mike Trout pile up crazy stats for a rookie, or any player for that matter, there are others, who may not be your typical highly-respected and hyped player, who are putting up tremendous numbers this season.
You Don’t Belong Here: OPS-Version: A.J. Pierzynski, Catcher, Chicago White Sox
The most-hated player in baseball has returned with a vengence in 2012, hitting a robust .294/.340/.539 with 14 doubles, four triples, 23 home runs and 70 RBI. Pierzynski is ranked 20th in MLB in OPS. His current .879 OPS would eclipse his career high, .824, which he set as a 26-year-old in 2003 for the Minnesota Twins. Add in the fact that Pierzynski hit 17 home runs COMBINED in 2010 and 2011 over 938 at-bats, and there is no reason that anyone should have expected the aging catcher to be anywhere near this productive in 2012.
Honorable Mention: Dexter Fowler (17th in MLB), Edwin Encarnacion (5th in MLB), Yadier Molina (16th in MLB)
You Don’t Belong Here: Home run-Version: Jason Kubel, Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jason Kubel signed a two-year, $16 million deal with a 2014 club option this past offseason, leaving Minnesota for the desert. The change of scenery has worked out nicely for Kubel, who has posted a .270/.341/.531 line, with 25 doubles, three triples, 26 home runs, and 79 RBI in 418 at-bats for the Diamondbacks. Kubel was always a solid hitter, even hitting 28 home runs and driving in 103 runs in 2009 for the Twins, however his current .872 OPS for Arizona is 78 points higher than his career OPS (.794). You can add in the fact that he moved to a hitter’s park for the bump there, and his .872 OPS is still lower than his .907 OPS in 2009, as well, but Kubel is definitely a surprise at No. 14 in MLB in home runs right now. If he had stayed healthy for Minnesota in 2010 and 2011, it’s possible that his production wouldn’t be quite so surprising for some.
Honorable Mention: Billy Butler (15th in MLB), Ryan Ludwick (15th in MLB), Josh Reddick (15th in MLB)
You Don’t Belong Here: NL Rookie of the Year-Version: Todd Frazier, INF/OF, Cincinnati Reds
What do you get when you take a former MVP who has knee surgery, plug in a rookie for him, and proceed to go 27-12? You don’t get Bryce Harper, that’s for darn sure. Todd Frazier should be the NL Rookie of the year, as he is hitting .296/.355/.555, with 21 doubles, five triples, 18 home runs, 60 RBI and three steals in 328 at-bats. He wasn’t supposed to win the award and he still may not, as Harper was awarded a spot on the NL All-Star team in July and has the hype machine on his side. It isn’t very close based on statistics alone, though.
Honorable Mention: Michael Fiers, Wade Miley, Wilin Rosario, Zack Cozart
You Don’t Belong Here: Pitching-Version: R.A. Dickey, RHP, New York Mets
Take nearly every category and you’ll see Dickey there: Wins (tied for 1st in MLB), ERA (9th in MLB), Innings Pitched (3rd in MLB), Strikeouts (3rd in MLB), Batting Average Allowed (8th in MLB), and WHIP (6th in MLB). Dickey has redefined the journeyman label for pitchers since arriving in New York. Did anyone see this out of the guy who had a 5.72 ERA over 77 appearances (33 starts) before joining the Mets in 2010 as a 35-year-old? Dickey his knuckleball continue to baffle opposing hitters, as he continues to make it hard for ESPN to not force him down our throats as the best pitcher in the National League.
Honorable Mention: A.J. Burnett, Lance Lynn, Chris Sale, Matt Harrison, Scott Diamond
You Don’t Belong Here: Strikeout-Version: Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
When you look at the strikeout leaders in MLB, you should see starting pitchers all over the place, especially in the top 100. The number of innings pitched for starting pitchers makes it impossible for relief pitchers to hang with starters in that category, as they tend to face between three and six opposing batters per game, rather than the 18 to 30 that starters may face, depending on their success in a given game. Well, say hello to the “Cuban Missile”, Aroldis Chapman, who is 59th in MLB with 112 strikeouts, one less than Jered Weaver and tied with Ryan Dempster. His 16.9 K/9 is higher than Eric Gagne‘s 15.0 K/9, which Gagne posted in his 2003 Cy Young season, the last relief pitcher to win the Cy Young award. Chapman is nothing short of dominant, having allowed a total of nine earned runs over his 62 innings pitched.
Honorable Mention: NONE
Numbers are fun and the constant flow of them in baseball is one of the most intriguing parts of the game. Players surprise with production every year. Who has surprised you in 2012?
Scott Rolen…Please Retire
Rolen’s play is no laughing matter
When Mike Schmidt retired on May 29, 1989, these were his words:
“Over the years, I’ve set high standards for myself as a player, and I always said that when I couldn’t live up to those standards I would retire. I no longer have the skills needed to make adjustments at the plate to hit or to make some plays in the field and run the bases. I feel like I could ask the Phillies to keep me on to add to my statistics, but my love for the game won’t let me do that.”
Mike Schmidt is a Hall of Famer and a well-deserved Hall of Famer, at that. If he can retire in the middle of the season after a terrible, non-performing start, why can’t others? Manny Ramirez retired last season, but that was mainly due to his Performance-Enhancing Drug suspension. It is time for Scott Rolen to walk away.
Rolen has been a tremendous player, having won the Rookie of the Year in 1997, eight Gold Gloves, and making seven All-Star appearances. However, he hasn’t been worth a roster spot since the beginning of the 2011 season, hitting just .220/.258/.365 with 27 doubles, two triples, eight home runs, 52 RBI, and a 69:19 K:BB in 381 at bats. He has been on the disabled list for 132 games due to injuries since April 21 of 2011.
The fall began in 2005 when Rolen first dealt with left shoulder issues, which he missed 101 games due to. Rolen was 30-years-old that season, and now, seven years later, he has been on the disabled list or missed games due to the same shoulder nine different times, a total of 253 games.
Prior to 2005, Rolen was Hall of Fame worthy, .280/.374/.518 with 296 doubles, 28 triples, 226 home runs, 831 RBI, and 91 stolen bases over parts of nine seasons, including his 130 at bat 1996 cup of coffee.
It is another sad example of a “what-might-have-been” scenario. I like to think of Mickey Mantle’s numbers without his knee issues, Grady Sizemore’s numbers without nearly three-and-a-half years of injuries at the age of 29, or Tony Conigliaro before taking a pitch to the eye. Unfortunately for a contending team like the Cincinnati Reds, they can’t afford to give at-bats to a player who is a shell of his former self.
Scott Rolen is not the player that Todd Frazier is, whether he possesses tremendous leadership qualities and is a loveable, Dusty Baker-kind-of-veteran. In fact, take a look at this:
Player A: .282/.354/.472, 15 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 10 SB, 53:27 K:BB in 248 AB
Player B: .278/.345/.556, 13 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 1 SB, 52:18 K:BB in 180 AB
Player A is Bryce Harper and Player B is Todd Frazier, so who is your Rookie of the Year in the National League? While Harper is an All-Star and is just 19-years-old, Frazier has been just as productive, if not more so, in 60+ fewer at-bats. Frazier is 26 and toiled in the minors as a former college pick before getting a shot this season. They aren’t anywhere near the same player, but neither is Scott Rolen compared to what he was and what Frazier is now.
Rolen needs to look at what Mike Schmidt said when he retired over 13 years ago. To take a step back and humbly admit that you “no longer have the skills needed to make adjustments at the plate to hit or to make some plays in the field and run the bases.” Everyone sees it and it is time for Rolen to look in the mirror and see that it is, indeed, time to step away for good. His leadership qualities may have more value to a franchise when he isn’t on a 25-man roster, anyway.
2013 Cincinnati Reds
Looking ahead to next season, though the Reds are currently in first place in the NL Central, the Reds have some interesting roster issues to address. Not only do they have arbitration eligible players who can increase payroll significantly, but they’ll have key players with extensions kicking in. Take a look at guaranteed contracts for 2013:
Joey Votto: $17 M
Brandon Phillips: $10 M
Jay Bruce: $7.5 M
Johnny Cueto: $7.4 M
Aroldis Chapman: $2 M
Bronson Arroyo: $11.5 M
Sean Marshall: $4.5 M
Ryan Madson: $2.5 M buyout OR $11 M
Nick Masset: $3.1 M
Ryan Hanigan: $2.05 M
Ryan Ludwick: $500K buyout OR $5 M
Jose Arredondo: $1.2 M
If the Reds buyout Ludwick and Madson, they have $69.25 M locked into 12 players, with only 10 of them returning. If they take on the contracts of both Ludwick and Madson, it goes up to $82.25 M for 12 players. However, it doesn’t end there. The following players are eligible for arbitration after the 2012 season:
Pre-arbitration – players who can have their contracts renewed at the league minimum:
Logan Ondrusek
Sam LeCure
Devin Mesoraco
Zack Cozart
Jordan Smith
Todd Frazier
Arbitration-eligible – players who can be non-tendered or signed through arbitration and receive a raise, with 2012 salaries listed in parenthesis:
Homer Bailey ($2.4 M)
Mat Latos ($550K)
Bill Bray ($1.42 M)
Wilson Valdez ($930K)
Paul Janish ($850K)
Drew Stubbs ($527,500)
Mike Leake ($507,500)
Chris Heisey ($495K)
Alfredo Simon ($487K)
The Reds would be wise to let Homer Bailey walk by being non-tendered, as he shouldn’t be getting a raise considering the inconsistencies that he has shown. He would earn between $3.5-4 M in arbitration. Valdez and Janish are veteran utility players who can be replaced with others who can play defense and not hit…just like them! Stubbs, Leake, and Heisey should all still be affordable in their first year of arbitration, but Latos could be an issue. He will get expensive quickly due to his early success, though it wasn’t with the Reds.
Free-Agents:
Scott Rolen
Miguel Cairo
Willie Harris
So, buyout Ludwick and Madson and keep Heisey in left and Chapman at closer and go from there.
Catchers: Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Todd Frazier
SS: Zack Cozart
LF: Chris Heisey
CF: Drew Stubbs
RF: Jay Bruce
Starting Rotation:
Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and OPEN
Bullpen:
Jose Arredondo, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Sam LeCure, Alfredo Simon, Logan Ondrusek, Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman
Bench:
OPEN
Clearly, the Reds would need to fill the bench with about three players: a utility infielder, a super-utility player (infield and outfield), and a good fourth outfielder. They will need to look to free agency to fill those roles. The following players will be free agents and would be worth a look for the Reds:
Jose Lopez – Lopez can play first and third comfortably and second if or when needed. He has done so for the Cleveland Indians in 2012. He is making $800K in 2012 and will be 29 in 2013
Scott Hairston – Hairston may end up on the expensive side of bench players, as his power and versatility will be very valuable on the open market. He currently has an .840 OPS with 10 HR and 31 RBI in just 157 at bats for the New York Mets. Hairston is making $1.1 M in 2012 and has played all three outfield spots this season and some second base in his career.
Grady Sizemore – Injuries MIGHT be gone when he hits free agency after the 2012 season. Sizemore hasn’t had a healthy season since 2008. He is making $5 M in 2012 but hasn’t played in a single game. An incentive-laden contract is a necessity for Sizemore to prove his worth and as a former gold glove caliber center fielder, he can handle all three outfield positions…if healthy.
Ryan Theriot – Theriot is making $1.25 M for the San Francisco Giants while playing primarily shortstop. He played left field late in a game and has played second, short, third, and outfield in recent years.
The open rotation spot should be left to Tony Cingrani, the young left-hander out of Rice, who has dominated the minors this season to the tune of a 7-2 record, 1.47 ERA, 86 IP, 109:21 K:BB, .196 BAA, 0.95 WHIP, including a 15 strikeout, eight shutout inning outing on Wednesday night. It’s worth seeing what you have there. Alfredo Simon or Sam LeCure could fill the number five spot if the Reds don’t sign another veteran arm like: Aaron Cook, Kevin Correia, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero, or Chris Young, who could all be cheap options.
It’s never too early to wonder what your team will look like in the future. Maybe Billy Hamilton moves to center and Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey becomes the team’s fourth outfielder? As the season goes on, trades could be made involving Cingrani or Hamilton to upgrade for 2012, as well. Regardless, the Reds look like an excellent team for this season and could get better by cutting some of the dead weight, namely their entire bench and Scott Rolen.
