Results tagged ‘ Roy Halladay ’
The Surprises of the First 10 Days
It is still early in the baseball season, but with about a week and a half gone since opening night, we’ve seen a near perfect game for Yu Darvish and plentiful RBI for Chris Davis. While Darvish was expected to take another step towards stardom this season, Davis’ production is still quite a surprise to some, though power has always been a part of his game.
10 Days in, what are the biggest surprises of the 2013 season?
The Good
Carl Crawford, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: .458/.519/.542, 2 2B, 2 SB
Crawford isn’t necessarily setting the world on fire, but the fact that he has played in all seven games for the Dodgers is shocking, considering his availability for opening day was in question since he didn’t make his Cactus League debut until March 23. While he has just two extra-base hits out of his 11 total hits, the fact that Crawford is running (though he’s just 2 for 4 on stolen base attempts), and productive in a loaded lineup are reasons enough to begin to wonder if he can return to his glory days of Tampa, rather than the disappointment that he had been in Boston. If Crawford stays productive around Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez, the Dodgers will get out of the NL West basement rather quickly.
John Buck, C, New York Mets: .393/.387/.859, 4 HR, 14 RBI
After watching Ike Davis tear apart pitching in the second half, you may have expected him to be the leader of the New York Mets this season; however, it’s the guy who was supposed to just be keeping a roster spot warm for Travis d’Arnaud, the slugging catching prospect that the Mets acquired from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey deal, John Buck. Buck has been mashing to this point, ranking second in the majors in RBI (behind Chris Davis) and tied for second in home runs. With the Miami Marlins around, the Mets should feel comfortable about not finishing last in their division, but Buck has led the Mets patchwork pitching staff, dominated by Matt Harvey‘s emergence as an ace, to a solid start.
Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: .458/.500/.750, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI
It’s too bad that Segura exhausted his rookie eligibility last year, otherwise, he’d be leading the pack in the early stages of the season for the title of NL Rookie of the Year. Segura had 151 at-bats last season (166 plate appearances), but he looks like he learned a little after hitting just .258/.315/.325 in 2012. The 23-year-old shortstop has a very interesting tool-set, with solid gap power and speed, which will allow for solid run production in a lineup with a healthy Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun…the only problem is that getting all four of those guys on the field at the same time may be harder than finding a needle in a haystack.
Courtesy: NY Daily News
Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, .093 BAA, 14 IP, 19:4 K:BB
I mentioned Harvey under Buck, but it is worth noting again…he has been nothing short of dominant. He’s allowed just 8 baserunners over two starts, and the strikeouts limit the scoring opportunities, as well. Harvey had a 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 70:26 K:BB in 59.1 innings last season. Like Segura, just missing rookie eligibility in 2013, but a dynamic starting pitcher for a team desperate for pitching in the Mets.
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago Cubs: 1-1, 2.63 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .125 BAA, 13.2 IP, 22:5 K:BB
The former Notre Dame wideout is leading the majors in strikeouts early in the season and appears to be heading towards super-stardom ..which is why I traded him for next to nothing in my dynasty league this offseason. He has a lousy team around him but the 28-year-old has some help on the way, and the Cubs have him under team control through 2015. While he may not win many games, his peripheral statistics could make him look a lot like Felix Hernandez in fantasy formats.
The Bad
Ryan Hanigan, C, Cincinnati Reds: .043/.148/.043, 1 for 23, 2 RBI
The Cincinnati Reds are playing their 9th game of the season and Devin Mesoraco is making his second start of the season. As most people would like to do, you can blame Dusty Baker for his inability to find value in young talent, unless, of course, it is a pitcher whose career he can ruin. Mesoraco is a sinner for going 0 for 4 in his only start, drawing a walk in the Reds 7-6 extra-inning loss to the Washington Nationals. Apparently, he may only start in day games following a night game, which should be great for the 24-year-old’s development. Ryan Hanigan, meanwhile, will continue to get the at-bats, and the Reds have to hope that batting 8th in the order doesn’t allow clubs to assume that there are two easy outs every time through the lineup.
Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 0-4, 12.50 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 18 IP, 19:11 K:BB in 4 starts
Halladay (0-2, 14.73 ERA, 2.45 WHIP) and Hamels (0-2, 10.97 ERA, 1.97 WHIP) have posted ugly numbers to this point. Halladay’s shoulder issues from last season and his drop in velocity, along with Hamels’ shoulder soreness early in his offseason throwing progr am could be to blame for their struggles. Certainly, the Phillies have to be concerned, especially after dealing Vance Worley and Trevor May to Minnesota for Ben Revere, eliminating their ready or near-ready young pitching to replace Shane Victorino, who left for Boston this winter via free agency. Both starting pitchers earn substantial amounts this season (Halladay makes $20 million and Hamels makes $19.5 million), so a turnaround would be necessary for Philadelphia fans to not want to ring the Liberty Bell with Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s skull.
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants: .091/.130/.136, 2 for 22, 1 R, 1 2B
After Belt hit .293/.362/.423 in the second half of 2012 and .410/.432/.833 this spring, the Giants had to be hoping that they had developed a solid, middle-of-the-order addition to pair with Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. Things haven’t gone as planned for Belt to this point; however, he has been dealing with some neck issues. The defending champions will hope that he gets that under control, as well as the skills that he showcased over the last couple of months during spring training.
Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves: 5 for 53 (.094), 2 HR, 3 RBI, 7 R, 19:7 K:BB
Heyward (.083/.267/.208) and Upton (.103/.212/.207) have combined for some pretty useless numbers. The Braves are 7-1 going into Wednesday’s game despite the lack of production from two of their stars. Needless to say, Upton’s pricey contract came with big expectations. We’ll see if his big payday after leaving Tampa isn’t going to take the same trip that Carl Crawford endured in Boston.
Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs: 12.27 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, .444 BAA, 1-1, 1 for 2 in save opportunities
Considering the short leash that the Cubs had on Marmol, you have to wonder if it was even worth giving him a chance to prove himself or build trade value when there was a 70-30 chance that he was going to implode. And…implode he did. Kyuji Fujikawa has already replaced Marmol as the Cubs’ closer, and his 8.10 ERA is solid since he is 2 for 2 in save opportunities. It’s a process, Cubs fans, and you should be used to that by now.
Brett Myers, SP, Cleveland Indians: 0-1, 12.19 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 7 HR allowed, 10.1 IP, 4:2 K:BB
When the Indians signed Myers, they wanted him to be a solid innings eating starting pitcher, allowing them to slide him into the No.3 spot in the rotation behind Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez. Myers was to provide solid depth due to Masterson and Jimenez lacking in their ability to throw strikes, resulting in high pitch counts and short outings. However, Myers was a risk since he had pitched out of the bullpen for the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox the last two seasons, and while he had transitioned from starter to relief and back to starter before in his career, guaranteeing Myers $7 million to do that again could leave Indians fans scalping themselves every fifth day. Myers has allowed SEVEN home runs in 10.1 innings, or about six every 9 innings. Some batting practice pitchers don’t average that stat. Myers is either hurt or should retire, but there isn’t any in between on those choices, and a neck injury from watching home runs could be to blame.
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: 1-0, 4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 11 IP, 11:11 K:BB
Well, after finding a groove as a relief pitcher in the playoffs last year, the Giants gave “The Freak” another chance in a starting role this season. He has only allowed a .175 average in his two starts, and if he wasn’t shutting down those that do hit the ball, he’d have an ERA right around Halladay’s. The free passes need to stop if Lincecum is going to re-establish himself as a valuable pitcher, and he needs to do that if he hopes to score a big contract as a free agent this winter.
Is Roy Halladay Finished?
The 2012 season was one to forget for Roy Halladay, as he posted a 4.49 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while going 11-8 in 25 starts and 156.1 innings. While that would be slightly below average for many, it was a devastating collapse for someone who had posted a 2.86 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP from 2006 to 2011 while tossing 1,414.2 innings and winning 109 games.Halladay missed 50 days of the 2012 season while on the disabled list for a shoulder strain. While shoulder injuries can ruin careers, just see Brandon Webb, Hallday overcame a shoulder injury in 2004, which cost him 66 days of the season, to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball the next six seasons.
The major difference at this point is that Halladay will turn 36 years old on May 14 of the 2013 season. With his fastball clocked around 87 mph in his latest spring training start, can Halladay reinvent himself at this point of his career with diminishing stuff? In 2012, Halladay’s average fastball was 90.6 mph, down from 92.0 in 2011 and 92.6 in 2010; however, Halladay was sick with a stomach ailment in his recent start and pitchers tend to have dead-arm periods in the spring, but which issue is to blame: injuries, fatigue, regression, or age?
All good things must come to an end. One of the more recent careers saw a pitcher who had gone from this:
| Year | Lg | W | L | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | NL | 18 | 8 | 3.18 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 249.0 | 230 | 97 | 88 | 13 | 81 | 140 | 1.249 |
| 1989 | NL | 19 | 12 | 2.95 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 238.1 | 222 | 90 | 78 | 13 | 82 | 135 | 1.276 |
| 1990 | NL | 15 | 15 | 3.46 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 237.0 | 242 | 116 | 91 | 11 | 71 | 144 | 1.321 |
| 1991 | NL | 15 | 11 | 3.35 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 263.0 | 232 | 113 | 98 | 18 | 66 | 198 | 1.133 |
| 1992 | NL | 20 | 11 | 2.18 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 268.0 | 201 | 68 | 65 | 7 | 70 | 199 | 1.011 |
| 1993 | NL | 20 | 10 | 2.36 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 267.0 | 228 | 85 | 70 | 14 | 52 | 197 | 1.049 |
| 1994 | NL | 16 | 6 | 1.56 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 202.0 | 150 | 44 | 35 | 4 | 31 | 156 | 0.896 |
| 1995 | NL | 19 | 2 | 1.63 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 209.2 | 147 | 39 | 38 | 8 | 23 | 181 | 0.811 |
| 1996 | NL | 15 | 11 | 2.72 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 245.0 | 225 | 85 | 74 | 11 | 28 | 172 | 1.033 |
| 1997 | NL | 19 | 4 | 2.20 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 232.2 | 200 | 58 | 57 | 9 | 20 | 177 | 0.946 |
| 1998 | NL | 18 | 9 | 2.22 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 251.0 | 201 | 75 | 62 | 13 | 45 | 204 | 0.980 |
| 1999 | NL | 19 | 9 | 3.57 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 219.1 | 258 | 103 | 87 | 16 | 37 | 136 | 1.345 |
| 2000 | NL | 19 | 9 | 3.00 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 249.1 | 225 | 91 | 83 | 19 | 42 | 190 | 1.071 |
| 2001 | NL | 17 | 11 | 3.05 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 233.0 | 220 | 86 | 79 | 20 | 27 | 173 | 1.060 |
| 2002 | NL | 16 | 6 | 2.62 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 199.1 | 194 | 67 | 58 | 14 | 45 | 118 | 1.199 |
That is a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 3,563.1 innings and 265 wins over 15 seasons.
From that point on it was this:
| Year | Lg | W | L | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | NL | 16 | 11 | 3.96 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 218.1 | 225 | 112 | 96 | 24 | 33 | 124 | 1.182 |
| 2004 | NL | 16 | 11 | 4.02 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 212.2 | 218 | 103 | 95 | 35 | 33 | 151 | 1.180 |
| 2005 | NL | 13 | 15 | 4.24 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 225.0 | 239 | 112 | 106 | 29 | 36 | 136 | 1.222 |
| 2006 | NL | 15 | 14 | 4.20 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 210.0 | 219 | 109 | 98 | 20 | 37 | 117 | 1.219 |
| 2006 | NL | 9 | 11 | 4.69 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 136.1 | 153 | 78 | 71 | 14 | 23 | 81 | 1.291 |
| 2006 | NL | 6 | 3 | 3.30 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 73.2 | 66 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 14 | 36 | 1.086 |
| 2007 | NL | 14 | 11 | 4.14 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 198.0 | 221 | 92 | 91 | 14 | 25 | 104 | 1.242 |
| 2008 | NL | 8 | 13 | 4.22 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 194.0 | 204 | 105 | 91 | 21 | 30 | 98 | 1.206 |
| 2008 | NL | 6 | 9 | 3.99 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 153.1 | 161 | 80 | 68 | 16 | 26 | 80 | 1.220 |
| 2008 | NL | 2 | 4 | 5.09 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 40.2 | 43 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 1.156 |
That is a 4.13 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 1,258 innings and 82 wins over six seasons.
The above statistics are those of the great Greg Maddux, who was dominant for nearly two decades before his career began a decline. In the late stages of his career, Maddux’s fastball was between 85.8 and 83.7 mph, but he was still a valuable pitcher, just not nearly as valuable as his peak seasons. It is the age 37 season, 2003, when his elite numbers became a bit more pedestrian. Maddux was on the disabled list once, during the 2002 season, and never had shoulder issues while reaching 200 innings in 18 of his 23 seasons.
While being dominant may be a thing of the past, Roy Halladay is still capable of being a valuable pitcher. Considering that he isn’t the staff ace for the Philadelphia Phillies (that title now belongs to Cole Hamels…maybe even Cliff Lee), Halladay doesn’t have to be an MVP-caliber pitcher anymore, he just needs to be average, and his average is still better than what most No.2 or No.3 starters can provide for teams around MLB, unless we’re talking about the Los Angeles Dodgers and their Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke tag-team.
The issue with Roy Halladay’s 2012 season is easily described – he wasn’t at his best every start. He is still an elite pitcher because if you take away two starts from the 25 that he made (July 23 and September 22), then Halladay’s ERA would have been just 3.93 instead of 4.49, which still isn’t his career 3.31 ERA, but not nearly as gross it looks on the back of his baseball card. He is still an elite pitcher because he deserves to show that he is healthy. He is still an elite pitcher because his stuff has been diminishing the last few seasons and he was still dominant in 2010 and 2011. He is still elite pitcher because he will be capable of adapting to the change in his “stuff” to have a few more excellent seasons.
More Hatred for Brown
I have written here several times (10/11/11, 5/20/11, and 7/30/11) about Domonic Brown and the terrible mishandling of the talented, young outfielder by the Philadelphia Phillies. Still just 25 years old, Brown faces another uphill battle with Phillies’ management signing Delmon Young to a one-year, $750,000 deal on Tuesday.
Young adds a right-handed element to the Phillies crowded outfield, as he joins Brown, John Mayberry, Jr., Laynce Nix, Darin Ruf, and Rule 5 pick Ender Inciarte as possible corner outfielders. Only Ben Revere seems locked into a job in center, with the other six men fighting for two spots.
While Rotoworld stated that Brown will likely see most of his at-bats in right field, you have to wonder if Ruben Amaro, Jr. is going to actually stick to that. He is the same man who said that Brown needed another full season in Triple-A in 2012, only to give the outfielder another up and down season with just 187 major league at-bats and 220 at-bats for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
While Brown is not Jason Heyward, the two were likened to each other at times coming up through the minor leagues. The major difference: Heyward was given an opportunity in Atlanta after posting a .953 OPS over three levels (as high as Triple-A) in 2009, earning the every day right field job in Atlanta in 2010. In 2009, Brown also went through three levels (as high as Double-A), while posting an .880 OPS. He hasn’t received his opportunity yet
Over the last three seasons, Brown now has 465 at-bats in Triple-A and 433 at-bats in the majors. Considering 500 at-bats is the norm for an everyday player, why has Brown been riding the bench in Philadelphia instead of getting everyday at-bats, and if he isn’t ready, why is he not in Lehigh Valley full-time instead of sharing outfield duties with Raul Ibanez and Ben Francisco over the last few years?
The Phillies have played with their talent a bit too much, here, and for a team that has so quickly aged with Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard leading the offense, they needed to actually give Brown the job and see what he could do, allowing him to prove that he is a failure instead of miscasting him as one without a full opportunity to prove the theory wrong.
While the Phillies rely on Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee to win them so many games in 2013, it is still questionable as to whether the team is going to rely on Domonic Brown. After signing Delmon Y0ung, it looks like the one-time No.4 prospect in all of baseball will have to prove himself and fight for at-bats among a group of less talented peers.
Brown still has value and for a team that seems to have no interest in building around him or giving him an opportunity, perhaps it is time to deal him for a pitcher that doesn’t cost $30 million per season or a younger position player who isn’t earning nearly three times what they are worth, like Rollins, Utley, and Howard.
Who is Ian Kennedy?
Ian Kennedy has posted some pretty solid numbers over his career, going 46-30 with a 3.76 ERA over 112 games (110 starts). Having been around since 2007, when he came up with the Yankees, it is easy to forget that Kennedy is just 28 years old, with a lot of time left to become a useful pitcher, whether that is in real life or fantasy baseball. The only issue is, which Ian Kennedy is the real Ian Kennedy?
As a New York Yankee farm hand, Kennedy was totally lights-out, going 19-6 with a 1.95 ERA over 46 games (43 starts), posting a 273:77 K:BB in 248.2 innings. In 2007, Kennedy jumped to the majors for three starts in September, going 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA over three starts and 19 innings. Kennedy wasn’t so good in 2008, going 0-4 with an 8.17 ERA over 10 games (9 starts) before being banished to the minors (all the way to the Gulf Coast League), where he worked on some things and earned a start on August 8, which didn’t go very well. Kennedy would make just one more appearance in the majors with the Yankees before a blood clot, which needed surgery, was found in his throwing shoulder. He was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks, as part of a three-way trade with the Detroit Tigers, on December 8, 2009 in a deal involving Curtis Granderson, Max Scherzer, and Edwin Jackson.
Once with Arizona, Kennedy’s career took off. In 2010, Kennedy stayed healthy, starting 32 games and tossing 194 innings while going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and posting a 168:70 K:BB. Then, 2011 was the breakthrough…
Kennedy went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 222 innings, posting a 198:55 K:BB. Kennedy finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting (behind Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee), while earning MVP votes, finishing 14th. At the age of 26, Kennedy was poised to take the step to become one of the top pitchers in Major League Baseball…
Only in 2012, things weren’t as positive for Kennedy, as he went 15-12 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, while posting a 187:55 K:BB in 208.1 innings.
While Kennedy’s 2011 season was a great step towards stardom, is he the pitcher that he was then or what he was in 2012…or somewhere in between, such as 2010?
Take a look at some statistics:
| Year | ERA | WHIP | xFIP | K:9 | BB:9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% |
| 2010 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 4.10 | 7.79 | 3.25 | 1.21 | 0.256 | 75.50 |
| 2011 | 2.88 | 1.09 | 3.50 | 8.03 | 2.23 | 0.77 | 0.270 | 79.20 |
| 2012 | 4.02 | 1.30 | 4.13 | 8.08 | 2.38 | 1.21 | 0.306 | 74.90 |
Kennedy’s ERA, WHIP, xFIP, HR/9, and LOB% were all at career bests in 2011. In 2012, Kennedy’s BABIP was higher than the league average, which is .300, but is that enough to say that he was unlucky or was he just lucky in earlier years in Arizona?
If 2011 was an aberration, then Ian Kennedy is more likely to post a 3.90 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 200 to 220 innings. But…if Kennedy maintains his strikeout rate and his BABIP falls to his career average, .280, could Kennedy return to the 2011 form, or at least post an ERA closer to 3.00 than 4.00 and a WHIP closer to 1.10 rather than 1.20 or 1.30?
At 28, Sabermetrics guru Bill James sees Kennedy as more of the 2011-version, having the right-hander go 13-10 with a 3.49 ERA over 214 innings in his projections. Based on Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores, Kennedy is most similar to Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Mark Prior, and Mat Latos. Due to some injury concerns for a few of those players, fans of the Diamondbacks certainly hope that Kennedy can come up with a new group of pitchers to be ranked with, and if he has another season like 2011, he could do that pretty easily.
Is Zack Greinke Worth More Than $100 Million?
Courtesy: LA Times
Zack Greinke is an excellent pitcher, having won the 2009 American League Cy Young with Kansas City and accumulating 91 wins in nine seasons. After being traded from Kansas City to Milwaukee prior to the 2011 season, then from Milwaukee to the Los Angeles Angels prior to the 2012 non-waiver trade deadline, Greinke is a free agent, and a highly coveted one, at that.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports seems to think that Greinke is going to join either the Texas Rangers or the Los Angeles Dodgers by the end of the week, as the two clubs could make the 29-year-old right-hander the highest-paid pitcher in baseball, exceeding the $161 million that the Yankees gave CC Sabathia.
The problem is, Zack Greinke isn’t worth that kind of investment.
Greinke is good but he has some disturbing career trends.
Greinke Can’t Pitch on the Road:
| Split | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 55 | 30 | .647 | 3.42 | 138 | 118 | 4 | 1 | 776.1 | 756 | 319 | 295 | 178 | 744 | 1.203 |
| Away | 36 | 48 | .429 | 4.15 | 134 | 113 | 8 | 2 | 715.2 | 726 | 356 | 330 | 201 | 588 | 1.295 |
It isn’t that he “CAN’T PITCH,” it’s just that he isn’t nearly as dominant. If Greinke had a .647 winning percentage on the road in his career, just like his home winning percentage, we’d be talking about a guy with a 54-30 away record and 109 career wins…but we’re not.
Greinke has a K/BB at home of 4.18 but that number drops to 2.93 on the road. How can you commit that much money to someone who can only pitch extremely well when you’re at home?
Courtesy: mlbdailydish.com
Greinke’s Statistics Aren’t Elite:
When you compare Greinke to the active ERA leaders in MLB, he is solid, ranking 23rd with a 3.77 ERA. Solid, but if quality is based on statistical measurement, does anyone see Chad Billingsley (3.65), Jon Lester (3.76), or Matt Garza (3.83) cashing in anytime in the near future?
Sure, ERA isn’t the only measurement of success, but wins are overrated, right? No one would say that Ian Kennedy and his 21-4 record and 2.88 ERA in 2011 was more impressive than Roy Halladay‘s 19-6 record and 2.35 ERA or Cliff Lee‘s 17-8 record and 2.40 ERA in 2011, right? Luckily, when Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young with his 21-5 record and 2.28 ERA, no one had to find out how important the wins were, as Kennedy finished 4th in Cy Young voting while tying Kennedy in wins that season.
The thing is, Greinke doesn’t really have the wins, either. His 91 wins have him tied with Cole Hamels at 46th. Hamels completed his seventh season in 2012 compared to Greinke’s ninth, and at the same age (heading into their age-29 seasons), is Greinke worth more than Cole Hamels, whose career ERA is 3.34?
The Issues:
You can’t forget that Greinke missed 69 games in 2006 due to Clinical Depression, a combination deemed depression and social anxiety disorder. He pitched in just three games in the majors that season after starting 17 games for the Royals Double-A affilliate, before getting another shot at starting at the beginning of 2007.
Greinke went just 1-4 with a 5.71 ERA over seven starts before moving to the bullpen for his next 37 appearances. He went 4-1 with a 3.54 ERA out of the bullpen, but the Royals moved him back to the rotation at the end of the season for another seven starts, when Greinke went 2-2 with a 1.85 ERA.
Mental illness and depression is something that is treated, but it is likely to relapse in the future. With all of the stress and expectations that Greinke is going to have on him due to his contract and pitching for a contending team, is it going to be too much for him?
So much is made of Josh Hamilton and his past drug addiction as teams worry about the financial commitment to someone whose body “could” break down due to the years of abuse. Why is Zack Greinke any different? Do you want your team committing a huge contract to someone who could, just as easily as Hamilton, have a mental slip up?
Courtesy: LA Times
Conclusion: Zack Greinke is an excellent starting pitcher. However, Dan Haren, Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy, and Erik Bedard were or are great pitchers, as well, and all were or are free agents this offseason.
Dan Haren has more wins (119) and a better career ERA (3.65) than Greinke. He also has an achy back and a lot more innings on his arm at the age of 32.
With more teams cashing in on TV deals and the revenues that stream from them, there will be more contracts like what Greinke is going to get this offseason. There will also be just as many contracts that teams live to regret, like Alex Rodriguez and his deteriorating, steroid damaged hips in New York, or what is to come of Albert Pujols and his massive contract when he is in his early-40′s and earning $30 million in his final year of his deal.
Greinke is reliable, having missed a few starts in 2011 due to a broken rib from a pick-up basketball game in the offseason, and the time that he missed due to his depression in 2006, but that is all. He had some shoulder inflammation in 2010 (he was day-to-day), but he hasn’t missed time outside of those issues in his entire career.
Based on his results, Greinke is very good. He isn’t Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum (pre-2012), so I would be very uncomfortable with my team giving him a huge, $100 million-plus deal. Is he an ace? Is he a game changer?
To me, his three postseason starts with a 1-1 record and 6.48 ERA shows the kind of pitcher Greinke is in crunch time. If he isn’t comfortable, he is just another guy on the mound, not your ace, and certainly not worth upwards of $20 million annually.
Phillies Phighting to the Phinish
With pitching like this, who needs an offense?
While they will never catch the Washington Nationals in the National League East, who lead them by 17 games, the Philadelphia Phillies are fighting their way back into relevance in the 2012 season. Having traded outfielders Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence at the MLB trade deadline, it looked like a lost season. They were, after all 46-57 at that point, 15.5 games behind the Nationals.
Today, the Phillies are 71-71, 25-14 since the All-Star break and just four games back from St. Louis for the second NL Wild Card. They have won six in a row and 14 of their last 18 games. While the Phils were dangerous heading into this season, they seem even more dangerous now.
Certainly, they are without Pence and Victorino, but the Phillies have been getting production elsewhere since the All-Star break:
* Ryan Howard is back and he is still hitting a lot of home runs (10 in 56 games) and striking out way too much (78 K’s in 203 AB).
* Jimmy Rollins has 10 home runs since the All-Star break, but he is only hitting .234/.299/.440 out of the leadoff spot. While the OBP is weak, his surprising power, 12 steals, and 36 runs are solid.
* Erik Kratz has filled the shoes of Carlos Ruiz, who has missed significant time due to injury after an amazing breakout to start the season, posting a second half line of .261/.315/.523 with seven home runs and 21 RBI in 36 games.
* John Mayberry has provided power with his eight home runs, Juan Pierre has been fantastic (.313/.364/.357) after nearly being traded at the deadline, and Domonic Brown has been productive in his first real shot in the majors while forming the revamped outfield.
* The pitching has been fantastic, as it should have been, with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Kyle Kendrick have combined for a 20-8 record and a 3.03 ERA in 279 innings in the second half, with a 239:54 K:BB.
Needless to say, it is the pitching that is frightening for potential opponents in the playoffs. If the Philadelphia Phillies win a Wild Card spot, they can start Halladay, Lee, or Hamels in the one game playoff. Their rotation has the potential to dominate in the playoffs like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling did for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001, but they have a third ace that Arizona did not have.
The postseason is the reason why the Phillies loaded up their rotation. Ruben Amaro, Jr. and ownership may have thought they were cleaning house to ease payroll in hopes of rebuilding through free agency this coming offseason. Now, by riding that same rotation and a few surprisingly productive bats, the Philadelphia Phillies have created a legitimate claim for one of the National League Wild Cards.
With three games at home against Atlanta, six games (three at home and three on the road) against Washington, and some winnable games against Miami, Houston, and the New York Mets, the Phillies do seem to have a legitimate shot. Not many people would have thought that was the case a month ago.
Fun With Projections
Looking over the current leaderboards, some players are really showing some crazy skills early in the year. Below are some potential records.
Matt Kemp, Dodgers
.481/.525/.1000, 185 R, 301 H, 46 2B, 0 3B, 93 HR, 231 RBI, 12 SB
Simply amazing. Kemp is hitting like no one I’ve ever seen right now. He’s not going to do this all year, but he was worthy of the NL MVP last year, and he’ll certainly win it in 2012. Needless to say, Kemp would break several records. He said that he was aiming for a 50/50 season in 2012, but he can’t steal bases when he hits the ball and has to touch home plate right afterwards with all of his homers.
Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
.321/.429/.321, 116 R, 197 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 23 RBI, 104 SB
Bonifacio is on pace for 197 singles and ZERO extra-base hits. He is also on pace to steal 100 bases, something that hasn’t been done since Vince Coleman stole 109 in 1987.
Derek Jeter, Yankees
.359/.373/.609, 116 R, 266 H, 46 2B, 0 3B, 46 HR, 127 RBI, 0 SB
So, he’s done, right? After hitting an “awful” .270 and .297 the last two season, Jeter is back to his old self and more. He isn’t going to post numbers like A-Rod did at shortstop when all is said and done, but a Jeter-like season is definitely within reach.
Pitching Projections
No one will ever win 59 games like good ol’ Old Hoss Radbourn did in 1884 for the Providence Grays, but Ivan Nova, Lance Lynn, and Roy Halladay are on pace to go 35-0 in 2012.
Ross Detwiler beat out John Lannon for the Washington Nationals #5 starter job and has only gone 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA through three starts, good for a 22-0 record in 32 projected starts.
Matt Harrison of the Rangers is also 2-0 in his two starts, with a dazzling 0.64 ERA in two starts, good for a 25-0 record in 25 projected starts.
Brandon Beachy has been absolutely filthy, compiling a 2-1 record with a 0.47 ERA and .162 average allowed in his three starts. He’s on pace for a 23-12 record over 35 projected starts.
Javy Guerra beat out Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers closer job this spring. He’s already closed out 7 games, so he is on pace for 81 saves, which would break Francisco Rodriguez’s 2008 record of 62 by a few. The Dodgers have to keep winning, which Matt Kemp seems to be capable of doing on his own, ala Bugs Bunny.
