Results tagged ‘ Jeremy Guthrie ’
Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore apparently thinks that his team is good enough to win within the next two years. That has to be the case after Moore traded one of the best prospects in baseball, Wil Myers, with RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard to the Tampa Bay Rays for two years of RHP James Shields and RHP Wade Davis.
For whatever reason, the Royals looked like they were going to go with Jeff Francoeur in right field in 2013, despite Myers ripping 37 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A in 2012. Was Myers expendable at the cost of playing Francoeur, who, after posting a .665 OPS in 2012, is in the final year of his contract in 2013?
While Kansas City has Wade Davis under contract through 2017, one has to wonder if he is really a starting pitcher. Davis posted a 2.43 ERA over 54 appearances and 70.1 innings, posting an 87:29 K:BB pitching only out of the bullpen in 2012. Prior to last season, Davis was 25-22 with a 4.22 ERA in 64 career starts, posting a 254:138 K:BB in 388.1 innings for the Rays.
While James Shields has a 31-22 record and a 3.15 ERA over the last two seasons, posting a 448:123 K:BB in 477 innings, Davis will be the wildcard in this deal, especially considering the amount of young controllable talent the Royals gave up in the deal.
Beyond the trade is the makeup of the current Royals roster. Is it championship caliber? Can the Royals compete with the Tigers, who have reloaded the pitching staff by re-signing Anibal Sanchez, teaming him with Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, and Max Scherzer to form one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, while still packing the Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera punch?
The Royals will need more than a couple of dynamic seasons out of Shields and Davis to make it work. Moore acquired Ervin Santana from the Los Angeles Angels, while committing $25 million over three years to journeyman Jeremy Guthrie. Can Shields, Davis, Santana, Guthrie, and Will Smith, Luke Hochevar, or Bruce Chen be enough to become a contender?
The answer will lie in the bats of the young stars on the Royals roster. Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, and Eric Hosmer have shown glimpses of superstardom, while mixing in a lot of inconsistencies. Shortstop Alcides Escobar looks like he is heading towards becoming a star, while catcher Salvador Perez looks to be on the same track. Designated Hitter Billy Butler is the leader of the team and all he does is hit. If the team gets a little consistency out of Moustakas, Gordon, and Hosmer, while hoping that Lorenzo Cain stays healthy in center and Francoeur looks like a baseball player again (like he did in 2011 when he posted an .805 OPS), the Royals may have enough to compete.
However, the Royals are a small-market team. If the team is able to create extreme revenue with a new TV contract, then this type of trade makes sense, but it is unlikely that the team will have the cash to re-sign Shields after the 2014 season, if he is even worth re-signing at that point. Is that worth the seven years of Myers, Odorizzi, and Montgomery?
The Royals have positioned themselves well by acquiring a lot of veteran arms to upgrade their rotation; however, Davis, Guthrie, and Santana aren’t models of consistency. If each of their starters reach their peak levels of performance, they could very well become a true force in a weak AL Central. They will need a lot of help from their young position players, though.
The Royals will be good enough to compete with the Detroit Tigers if Mike Moustakas hits like he did in the minors, if Eric Hosmer hits like he did in his rookie year, if Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez continue hitting like they did in 2012, if Lorenzo Cain and Jeff Francoeur do anything, and if Billy Butler keeps hitting like the All-Star that he is.
Those are a lot of if’s.
Because of all of those if’s, the Royals are going to regret the trade of Myers, Odorizzi, and Montgomery. While we’ve seen many Brandon Wood, Brandon Larson, and Corey Patterson-types get hyped and fail, we’ve also seen the Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Miguel Cabrera-types get hyped and exceed expectations. For a team who can’t land the top free agents, dealing away all of that potential for two years of a reliable arm and five years of a wildcard is and will be a huge mistake.
Some teams just need to remember who and what they are. With so many teams banking on revenue streams increasing, MLB could have parity like the NFL in coming years…but they could also have owners who are shy to spend due to the market limitations. Kansas City has been shy to spend for so many years that they can’t be counted on to start anytime soon. They weren’t close enough to a championship to make a deal like the one that they did with the Rays.
Below is a list of starting pitchers who will, or could, reach free agency. Some players listed have options that will probably not be picked up, while others are totally free to sign with whomever they choose or settle for.
1. Zack Greinke, RHP, 10/21/1983
91-78, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1,492 IP, 1,332:379 K:BB
Greinke has been traded twice in the last two years, first from Kansas City to Milwaukee, then from Milwaukee to the Los Angeles Angels. The right-hander has overcome some personal anxiety battles, but those mental battles could limit his potential suitors when he hits free agency. Those interested in the front line starter may want to consider his home and road splits, as Greinke is a true ace at home (55-30, 3.42 ERA in 138 games, 118 starts) but very mediocre away from his apparent comfort zones (36-48, 4.15 ERA, 134 games, 113 starts). At 29, Greinke will be one of two players (Josh Hamilton being the other) to cash in with a $100 million deal this winter.
2. Edwin Jackson, RHP, 11/9/1983
70-71, 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1,268.2 IP, 969:497 K:BB
The stuff finally produced the strikeouts that Jackson’s arsenal was capable of in the second half of 2012, when Jackson posted a 92:28 K:BB in 88.1 innings, a 9.4 K/9 rate. Jackson posted a 9.2 K/9 in 2010 once he was traded to the Chicago White Sox, but could this be where Jackson finally cashes in and becomes an ace? If Jackson lands in a pitcher’s park, he could continue to take the steps necessary to become the pitcher everyone thought he was when he was outdueling Randy Johnson back in 2003 at the age of 19. He’ll finally get his long-term deal, even after pitching for seven teams in ten years.
3. Anibal Sanchez, RHP, 2/27/1984
48-51, 3.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 869 IP, 733:320 K:BB
Sanchez has yet to reach 200 innings in a season, but he has reached 200 strikeouts in a season once (2011). The stuff has always been there to help him reach ace levels, but there has also been concerns about his health at times in his career, warranted due to his innings limits to this point. Sanchez pitched very well down the stretch for the Detroit Tigers and could be on his way to establishing himself as the top-of-the-rotation starter that made him a part of the deal from Boston for Josh Beckett years ago.
4. Jake Peavy, RHP, 5/31/1981
120-93, 3.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1,800.1 IP, 1,748:548 K:BB
Peavy had his first full season since 2008 in 2012 and his first season with at least 30 starts since 2007. It has been a long struggle with shoulder woes for Peavy, but he looked like his former self in 2012 amassing a 3.37 ERA and a 194:49 K:BB in 219 innings. Peavy is due either a $4 million buyout or a $22 million salary, so the chances of him returning to the White Sox in 2013 are about as slim as Jay-Z never dropping the “b” word again. Peavy will cash in, as some team will gamble on the shoulder staying strong and his revival being legit.
5. Kyle Lohse, RHP, 10/4/1978
118-109, 4.45 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1,973 IP, 1,238:565 K:BB
Lohse put on a clinic in 2012, going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The two seasons, Lohse is 30-11 with a 3.11 ERA over 399.1 innings. He’s clearly made himself a lot of money. Lohse is 34, so his contract could be limited. Teams could also be concerned about his pre-2011 form, as Lohse was just 88-98 with a 4.79 ERA over 10 seasons and 1,573.2 innings. St. Louis seems like a great fit, especially with an aging Chris Carpenter, as the Cardinals continue grooming Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Shelby Miller for rotation gigs.
6. Dan Haren, RHP, 9/17/1980
119-97, 3.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1,876.2 IP, 1,585:395 K:BB
Haren has had some back issues the last couple of seasons, but he still managed to start 30 games in 2012. Haren has had issues his entire career maintaining his dominance, posting a 3.36 ERA and 63-50 record over 1,019.1 first half innings, while dropping to 56-47 with a 4.01 ERA in 857.1 second half innings. Haren rarely issues walks and is a great option for the top of a rotation. He is due $15.5 million or a $3.5 million buyout. If the Angels want to make a push to re-sign the younger Greinke, Haren could be bought out and headed to free agency. He’ll look to rebuild his value at the age of 32, still young enough for a nice, long-term commitment.
7. Francisco Liriano, LHP, 10/26/1983
53-54, 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 840 IP, 846:356 K:BB
Once upon a time, Liriano was on his way to becoming the next Johan Santana. Little did we know that once Santana’s shoulder was ripping away, that Liriano would deem himself just as useless. At the age of 22, Liriano was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA. He then blew out his elbow and has gone just 40-49 with a 4.75 ERA since returning in 2008. Liriano can’t seem to throw enough strikes to be a consistent starting pitcher, but the stuff is still there, as evidenced by his 9.6 K/9 in 2012, to dominate…or continue to be a headcase.
8. Jorge De La Rosa, LHP, 4/5/1981
54-51, 4.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 780.1 IP, 688:383 K:BB
De La Rosa is another gamble, but he showed that he has the stuff to be a very nice mid-rotation starter before his 2011 Tommy John surgery. From 2009 until his injury in 2011, the lefty was 29-18 with a 4.18 ERA and 358:160 K:BB in 365.2 innings. De La Rosa struggled in his career prior to learning how to pitch once landing in Colorado. If he can pitch successfully there, can he do it anywhere? Owed $11 million or a $1 million buyout in 2013, De La Rosa is a great candidate to reach free agency to rebuild his career on an incentive-laden, one-year contract.
9. Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, 4/12/1981
9-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 125.1 IP, 101:43 K:BB
Iwakuma is an unknown, having turned down an opportunity to sign with Oakland in 2011 before signing a one-year contract with the Seattle Mariners prior to 2012. Iwakuma could bolt back to Japan or get himself a nice multi-year deal in the states after posting an 8-4 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 16 starts for the Mariners down the stretch. He has some mileage on his arm from his days pitching in Japan, but Iwakuma is sure to make more than the $1.5 million that he earned in 2012.
10. Brandon McCarthy, RHP, 7/7/1983
37-39, 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 654.1 IP, 447:191 K:BB
I would LOVE to have this guy on my team. While there will be concerns about his abilities due to the head trauma that he suffered, and his mobility due to brain surgery, McCarthy is worth a gamble by a contender or a team in need of a top starter. While there is a great deal of risk in signing McCarthy, he has overcome odds before, returning from a broken shoulder to become one of the best pitchers in baseball. Once returning from injury, McCarthy had a new, two-seam fastball that has changed his career, ala Roy Halladay in 2001. He made 11 appearances in 2010 in the minors, signing with the Oakland A’s in 2011, and going on to post a 17-15 record, 3.29 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 281.2 innings (43 starts). If he could just stay on the mound, he would be even more respected than he already is. Here’s to a speedy recovery and a fantastic rebound for a guy who seems like a lot of fun (follow him and his wife on Twitter, they’re hilarious!).
I’ve been writing for Bleacher Report and I’ve added another site, Wahoo’s on First. These are the most recent posts that I am responsible for, unless they offend anyone or violate copyright, then I will try to say I didn’t do them.
Should the Indians Keep Ubaldo Jimenez?
Thoughts on the Indians Top 20 Prospects from MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo)
Six Reasons Why Indians Fans Should Watch Them Over the Browns
Five Things That Could Salvage the 2012 Indians’ Season
Wahoo’s On First:
Why the Indians Should Sign Brandon McCarthy (pre-injury, and they still should)
Why the Indians Should Sign J.P. Howell
Why the Indians Should Sign Jeremy Guthrie
How Jason Kipnis Became the Indians’ Clubhouse Leader
Well, we finally made it to the American League. Thanks for your patience and if you’re a Baltimore Orioles fan, I know you have some. Baltimore finished in last place in the AL East for the 4th straight season and completed their season with a 69-93 record, their 14th straight losing season. New management and another rebuilding effort is in the works, as the O’s look for a way to get back to the glory of the…70′s…which seems like forever ago to their fans because it was. Who are the 25-men on the current roster?
2 Catchers: Matt Wieters and Taylor Teagarden
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Josh Bell
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Nolan Reimold
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Chris Davis
Bench: Endy Chavez (OF), Robert Andino (INF), Matt Angle (OF)
Starting Pitchers: Jeremy Guthrie, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada
Relief Pitchers: Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg, Pedro Strop, Troy Patton, Alfredo Simon, Darren O’Day and Brad Bergeson
The O’s didn’t have the success that they hoped to with the young arms that they were stockpiling. Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz have been total flops, while Arrieta and Britton seem to look like solid arms, but not really the top of the rotation guys that all four were hoped to become. Britton still has a shot, though. Adam Jones finally reached his potential last year, and at age 25, he is either someone to build around or someone to deal. It sounds like Dan Duquette is in the middle of deciding what that is going to be. Markakis is solid and average at the same time. J.J. Hardy looks like a great piece to keep until Manny Machado is ready, and the O’s have some talent in the pipeline to look forward to until they matter again. If only they moved to the NL Central, they could contend now.
They should probably look to deal Adam Jones. At 25, Jones is under team control until 2014. He would be an asset for a team that wants to contend. He would fit perfectly in the Braves outfield, they could trade Prado and put Jones or Bourn in LF, and he could get one or two of the Braves arms back in return. But you have to wonder if taking on arms is what the O’s need to do. They’ve added a couple of arms from Asia this offseason in Chen and Wada, basically eliminating rotation spots for Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter and Chris Tillman…if they even wanted them there in the first place…and their system hasn’t had much luck with developing arms. Luckily, the Braves have Minor, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino ready. Packaging one of those arms with Edward Salcedo, a highly ranked 3B prospect, would be an excellent package for Jones.
The O’s aren’t going to contend in 2012. They won’t contend for a few more years. They need to come to grips with that and start looking at the next wave of talent. Manny Machado at SS, Dylan and Robert Bundy at starting pitcher, and Jonathan Schoop look like top to above average prospects. Because of their future being two years out, they shouldn’t be starting anyone over 30. No more Derrek Lee’s or Vladimir Guerrero’s, even if they sign on the cheap. This team needs to invest in the draft, international signings, and player development. With the talent in the AL East, they have no choice but to build a little and THEN start signing talent via Free Agency. They have to have more key pieces on the field before they start filing holes. So they should waste their money on signing guys like Edwin Jackson or even spend time checking in on Prince Fielder. Let other teams spend now. Trade Nick Markakis to the Red Sox for Ryan Lavarnway and Anthony Renaudo, even though he is young (28 in 2012), you aren’t going to win with him. J.J. Hardy can help you win some games, but he could also get you a nice return from, say, the Reds, at the trade deadline in 2012 if Zack Cozart doesn’t work out. Trade Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Roberts to the Rockies for Seth Smith and Hector Gomez, giving the Rockies the solid arm they need to contend now, while the O’s get a spot for a young arm to try to prove themselves again.
There are a lot of things that the Orioles can do in 2012, but winning isn’t one of them. They have an interesting lineup with Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Hardy and Wieters, but they just don’t have enough consistency out of those guys to win, plus the pitching is just as questionable. Wada is a Japanese clone of Jamie Moyer, hitting 87-88 with his fastball. Chen can throw some heat, but he also has had some shoulder issues. We know that their young arms haven’t been consistent…or good…as Tillman and Matusz have been busts. But they are young enough to keep getting chances, especially when your team isn’t going to be good.
If you trade Jones, Markakis and Guthrie, it makes for an ugly roster, but after going 69-93 with them and not seeing an end to the losing with four solid teams in front of you in the AL East, you’ve got nothing to lose. Matt Angle, Reimold, Smith, and Endy Chavez would be your outfielders. You’ve got a 2B of the future in Gomez on the way (he spent all of 2011 in Double-A), with Machado coming up at SS, and Schoop at 3B. Lavarnway can play 1B or DH, Reimold could do the same thing. Draft college players early, high ceiling guys later, maybe get in on Yoennis Cespedes, the CF from Cuba and get him now. Why not? He’s someone to plug-in now. How would that change the roster for 2012:
2 Catchers: Matt Wieters and Taylor Teagarden
1B: Nolan Reimold
2B: Ryan Adams (.284/.341/.454, 28 2B, 10 HR in 94 games at Triple-A in ’11)
3B: Mark Reynolds
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Seth Smith
CF: Yoennis Cespedes
RF: Endy Chavez
DH: Ryan Lavarnway
Bench: Robert Andino (INF), Matt Angle (OF) and Chris Davis (1B/3B)
Starting Pitching: Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Chen/Wada (whoever looks best in Spring)
Relief Pitchers: Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg, Pedro Strop, Troy Patton, Alfredo Simon, Darren O’Day and Brad Bergeson
The fake deals that I made would make Hector Gomez (2B in 2013?), Anthony Renaudo (#3 pitcher in 2013?), Randall Delgado/Arodys Vizcaino/Mike Minor (#2 pitcher in 2013?), and Edward Salcedo (3B in 2014) a part of the organization. They’re solid guys who could force the O’s to move other players around, like Schoop to 2B or Salcedo to 1B (as his defense is still weak/raw). It is all made up and some of the deals may not be possible, but it is worth a shot. The O’s won’t win again until they build from within to create their own talent. See the Blue Jays, Rangers and Rays for current examples of this type of development.