Results tagged ‘ Jay Bruce ’
Why Ryan Ludwick’s Injury Is Devastating for Cincinnati
Courtesy: CBS Sports
Ryan Ludwick was a one-time All-Star, in 2008 for St. Louis, before his career started a downward trend in 2009, where Ludwick hit just .251/.321/.409 over the 2009 to 2011 seasons while being shipped out of St. Louis and playing for the Padres and Pirates. His career looked nearly finished before the start of 2012, when Reds GM Walt Jocketty gave him a one-year, $2 million deal to play left for Cincinnati, a job he had to earn over Chris Heisey.
Ludwick proved his worth, hitting .275/.346/.531 with 26 home runs and 80 RBI in 2012 in just 125 games and 472 plate appearances. His offensive outburst started when Joey Votto went on the disabled list on July 16, as he helped the Reds go 29-15 while Votto was out, posting a .346/.412/.654 line with 11 doubles, 12 home runs, and 36 RBI over 153 at-bats. Overall, Ludwick’s second half was much more impressive than the first:
| Split | G | GS | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 62 | 53 | 228 | 205 | 21 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 20 | 52 | .239 | .311 | .478 | .789 | 98 |
| 2nd Half | 63 | 56 | 244 | 217 | 32 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 22 | 45 | .309 | .379 | .581 | .959 | 126 |
Clearly, Ludwick wasn’t likely to maintain a .333 BABIP in the 2012 season, which he had in the second half of 2012, when you consider that his career BABIP is .304, but crazier things have happened…such as the rebound that he had in 2012 after a pretty miserable 2011 for Pittsburgh and San Diego (.237/.310/.363).
While losing a 34-year-old outfielder wouldn’t seem awful for most clubs in an era where players decline naturally without being able to used performance-enhancing drugs, Ludwick was a leader in 2012 and he brought stability to the middle of the order. His right-handed bat seems irreplaceable now, as he was the No.4 hitter between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. His replacements just don’t measure up to his career track record, especially when compared to his recent success.
Chris Heisey seems like the most likely, full-time replacement for Ludwick. He is a career .258/.314/.436 hitter in 913 career plate appearances. The issue with using Heisey full-time becomes the loss of his bat off of the bench. As a substitute or pinch-hitter in his career, Heisey has a .288/.344/.507 with eight home runs and 28 RBI in 164 plate appearances. Beyond his value off of the bench, Heisey’s inability to make consistent contact, a career 23.9 percent strikeout rate, is a concern, just like his reverse platoon statistics, as Heisey is much better as a right-handed hitter against right-handed pitching, than he is against left-handed pitching:
| I | Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as RHB | 269 | 658 | 596 | 164 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 72 | 12 | 39 | 155 | .275 | .331 | .460 | .791 | 274 | ||
| vs LHP as RHB | 122 | 255 | 234 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 14 | 63 | .214 | .272 | .376 | .648 | 88 |
Heisey is likely to share some at-bats with Xavier Paul, a 28-year-old, left-handed hitting outfielder. Paul can play all three outfield positions fairly well, which seems like a useless fact when the Reds are playing one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball in center field this season in Shin-Soo Choo. Paul was once an interesting prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers, displaying solid gap power and speed, but he has managed just 508 plate appearances over parts of four seasons in the majors, posting a .258/.305/.363 line. Paul’s inconsistent at-bats and consistent job as a No.5 outfielder could play a role in his inability to post solid numbers at the major league level, but considering that Heisey is better against right-handed pitching and Paul holds a .140/.197/.158 line in just 61 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Derrick Robinson replaced Ludwick on the Reds’ 40-man roster, as his contract was purchased when Ludwick was placed on the disabled list. Robinson has never appeared in the majors before, posting a career .255/.321/.324 hitter in seven minor league seasons. At 25, the switch-hitting outfielder, who was a minor league free agent signing after spending his whole career with the Kansas City Royals’ organization, doesn’t seem to offer the Reds much more than position flexibility, as he, too, can handle all three outfield positions.
Luckily, the Reds just have to replace Ludwick’s spot in left field and not as the cleanup hitter. Brandon Phillips can move from the No.2 spot to the No.4 spot as another solid, right-handed hitting option in the order. Dusty Baker will likely slide Zack Cozart up to the No.2 spot, breaking up Choo, the leadoff hitter, and Votto, as left-handed hitters at the top of the order. Phillips is likely to produce very good numbers in the middle of the order, but the bottom half of the Reds lineup is now very suspect, as Ryan Hanigan or Devin Mesoraco will likely bat behind whoever fills the left field void, followed by the starting pitcher in the No.9 spot.
While Ryan Ludwick’s injury may seem like an issue that could be overlooked, it really isn’t for the Cincinnati Reds. Certainly, with a power-packed lineup of Shin-Soo Choo, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, and Joey Votto, you’d think that they could overcome this injury pretty easily; however, Ludwick’s ability with the bat is not replaceable with the on-hand talent that the Reds have on the bench. Chris Heisey could do well in spurts, but the club has to find creative ways to keep the lineup strong from the top to bottom for the next several months, as Ludwick is out due to surgery on his labrum in his right shoulder.
2013 Cincinnati Reds
Looking ahead to next season, though the Reds are currently in first place in the NL Central, the Reds have some interesting roster issues to address. Not only do they have arbitration eligible players who can increase payroll significantly, but they’ll have key players with extensions kicking in. Take a look at guaranteed contracts for 2013:
Joey Votto: $17 M
Brandon Phillips: $10 M
Jay Bruce: $7.5 M
Johnny Cueto: $7.4 M
Aroldis Chapman: $2 M
Bronson Arroyo: $11.5 M
Sean Marshall: $4.5 M
Ryan Madson: $2.5 M buyout OR $11 M
Nick Masset: $3.1 M
Ryan Hanigan: $2.05 M
Ryan Ludwick: $500K buyout OR $5 M
Jose Arredondo: $1.2 M
If the Reds buyout Ludwick and Madson, they have $69.25 M locked into 12 players, with only 10 of them returning. If they take on the contracts of both Ludwick and Madson, it goes up to $82.25 M for 12 players. However, it doesn’t end there. The following players are eligible for arbitration after the 2012 season:
Pre-arbitration – players who can have their contracts renewed at the league minimum:
Logan Ondrusek
Sam LeCure
Devin Mesoraco
Zack Cozart
Jordan Smith
Todd Frazier
Arbitration-eligible – players who can be non-tendered or signed through arbitration and receive a raise, with 2012 salaries listed in parenthesis:
Homer Bailey ($2.4 M)
Mat Latos ($550K)
Bill Bray ($1.42 M)
Wilson Valdez ($930K)
Paul Janish ($850K)
Drew Stubbs ($527,500)
Mike Leake ($507,500)
Chris Heisey ($495K)
Alfredo Simon ($487K)
The Reds would be wise to let Homer Bailey walk by being non-tendered, as he shouldn’t be getting a raise considering the inconsistencies that he has shown. He would earn between $3.5-4 M in arbitration. Valdez and Janish are veteran utility players who can be replaced with others who can play defense and not hit…just like them! Stubbs, Leake, and Heisey should all still be affordable in their first year of arbitration, but Latos could be an issue. He will get expensive quickly due to his early success, though it wasn’t with the Reds.
Free-Agents:
Scott Rolen
Miguel Cairo
Willie Harris
So, buyout Ludwick and Madson and keep Heisey in left and Chapman at closer and go from there.
Catchers: Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Todd Frazier
SS: Zack Cozart
LF: Chris Heisey
CF: Drew Stubbs
RF: Jay Bruce
Starting Rotation:
Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and OPEN
Bullpen:
Jose Arredondo, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Sam LeCure, Alfredo Simon, Logan Ondrusek, Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman
Bench:
OPEN
Clearly, the Reds would need to fill the bench with about three players: a utility infielder, a super-utility player (infield and outfield), and a good fourth outfielder. They will need to look to free agency to fill those roles. The following players will be free agents and would be worth a look for the Reds:
Jose Lopez – Lopez can play first and third comfortably and second if or when needed. He has done so for the Cleveland Indians in 2012. He is making $800K in 2012 and will be 29 in 2013
Scott Hairston – Hairston may end up on the expensive side of bench players, as his power and versatility will be very valuable on the open market. He currently has an .840 OPS with 10 HR and 31 RBI in just 157 at bats for the New York Mets. Hairston is making $1.1 M in 2012 and has played all three outfield spots this season and some second base in his career.
Grady Sizemore – Injuries MIGHT be gone when he hits free agency after the 2012 season. Sizemore hasn’t had a healthy season since 2008. He is making $5 M in 2012 but hasn’t played in a single game. An incentive-laden contract is a necessity for Sizemore to prove his worth and as a former gold glove caliber center fielder, he can handle all three outfield positions…if healthy.
Ryan Theriot – Theriot is making $1.25 M for the San Francisco Giants while playing primarily shortstop. He played left field late in a game and has played second, short, third, and outfield in recent years.
The open rotation spot should be left to Tony Cingrani, the young left-hander out of Rice, who has dominated the minors this season to the tune of a 7-2 record, 1.47 ERA, 86 IP, 109:21 K:BB, .196 BAA, 0.95 WHIP, including a 15 strikeout, eight shutout inning outing on Wednesday night. It’s worth seeing what you have there. Alfredo Simon or Sam LeCure could fill the number five spot if the Reds don’t sign another veteran arm like: Aaron Cook, Kevin Correia, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero, or Chris Young, who could all be cheap options.
It’s never too early to wonder what your team will look like in the future. Maybe Billy Hamilton moves to center and Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey becomes the team’s fourth outfielder? As the season goes on, trades could be made involving Cingrani or Hamilton to upgrade for 2012, as well. Regardless, the Reds look like an excellent team for this season and could get better by cutting some of the dead weight, namely their entire bench and Scott Rolen.
Is Jay Bruce Ever Going to Get It?
Source: Bob Levey/Getty Images North America
This article can also be viewed at: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1195625-mlb-cincinnati-reds-is-jay-bruce-ever-going-to-get-itJay Bruce is 25-years-old. He has a career OPS of .808 and has already hit 110 career home runs in his 4.5 years in the Majors. The 6’3″, 225 pound Texan possesses tremendous power and he is locked up in Cincinnati through 2017, counting the team option.
But is Jay Bruce ever going to become the secondary piece to the Reds infrastructure? Joey Votto is to Jeff Bagwell as Jay Bruce is to Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio, or Daryl Ward? Is Bruce a potential Hall of Famer, or a potential flame out?
Once upon a time, in the year 2000 (not a reference to Conan O’Brien), Daryl Ward was a 25-year-old outfielder. He had an .833 OPS and 20 home runs in 281 at bats. He never learned to hit lefties, but he wasn’t a very good outfielder either, and he definitely didn’t make enough contact. He bounced around a little, and was released by the Diamondbacks last September. At 36, he is out of MLB and never lived up to his promise due to plate discipline issues.
Jay Bruce isn’t Daryl Ward, but can he be the Berkman/Biggio to Votto and the Reds? He has a canon for an arm and is much younger than what Ward was when he broke into the league. He isn’t in his prime yet and he has already smashed over 100 career home runs.
Bruce’s flaw seems to be his hot and cold streaks. His OBP is damaged through his bouts with the inability to take walks and make contact, as it sits at .329 over his career. This season, Bruce had an OPS of .954 in April, but he has slipped to a .762 OPS in May. From April 19 to May 4, Bruce raised his triple slash from .191/.216/.426 to .304/.347/.641, by going 19 for 45 (.422) with five home runs, 12 RBI, with an 11:5 K:BB. Since May 5, Bruce has gone just 12 for 63 (.190), with two home runs, 10 RBI, with a 21:5 K:BB.
Jay Bruce is young and inconsistent. He wasn’t awful against left-handed pitching (.802 OPS) and he wasn’t an elite player against right-handed pitching (.822 OPS), between 2009 and 2011. He had months where he was great (.913 OPS in May, .936 OPS in August) and he had months where he wasn’t very good (.616 OPS in July, .719 OPS in June) during the 2009 to 2011 seasons.
Jay Bruce may not take the steps needed to become an elite talent. His strikeout rate is currently the highest of his career (24.4%), while his walk rate is the lowest of his career (7.0%), even counting his rookie season. Based on his current numbers, Bruce is projected to finish 2012 at .258/.308/.535, with 83 runs scored, 41 doubles, 38 home runs, 105 RBI, and a 158:45 K:BB.
For all of those Reds fans who considered Adam Dunn a total waste while he was with the Reds due to all of those strikeouts, Dunn’s career slash, counting his miserable 2011 season, still stands at .243/.374/.505, and he has averaged 93 runs, 29 doubles, 38 home runs, 96 RBI, and a 188:110 K:BB over his career. The man got on base and hit for power. Bruce can’t seem to figure out what he is. You could count on Adam Dunn to walk, strikeout, or hit a home run. Bruce…well, what is he going to be counted on for? One thing is for sure, Reds fans can expect him to collect $55 million between 2013 and 2017. Is he worth it?
Reds Seem Comfortable in the Two Hole
Jeff Kent made a living hitting in front of Barry Bonds, averaging a .297/.368/.535, 29 HR, and 114 RBI line over six seasons. Joey Votto is having the same effect this season for Cincinnati, as the player hitting directly in front of him have gone .356/.406/.576 line, as teams continue to pitch around Votto, who is tied for the Major League lead in walks with 13.
Zack Cozart is now leading off for the Reds after raking .350/.409/.575 in 40 at bats in front of Votto. He isn’t doing well at leadoff yet, walking once but going hitless in his first 8 at bats. Drew Stubbs moved up in the order to 2nd when Dusty Baker moved Cozart to leadoff. He is only hitting .538/.571/.846, going 7 for his first 13 there.
Take a look at production by batting order for the Red thus far:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | ||
| Batting #1 | 14 | 62 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .129 | .169 | .145 | |
| Batting #2 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 12 | .356 | .406 | .576 | |
| Batting #3 | 14 | 49 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 14 | .286 | .429 | .408 | |
| Batting #4 | 14 | 57 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | .158 | .226 | .246 | |
| Batting #5 | 14 | 55 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | .218 | .262 | .436 | |
| Batting #6 | 14 | 56 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 10 | .232 | .283 | .411 | |
| Batting #7 | 14 | 52 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | .250 | .291 | .385 | |
| Batting #8 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | .265 | .345 | .286 | |
| Batting #9 | 14 | 46 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17 | .152 | .167 | .174 |
Obviously, having performed well since the recent moves, the lineup may stick for a while. If Brandon Phillips is hitting 4th between Votto and Jay Bruce, this lineup would remain one that fans can’t complain much about. However, if Baker continues putting Ryan Ludwick or Scott Rolen in the 4-spot, when they’ve gone a combined 4 for 42 with 1 RBI (.095), this doesn’t make sense. The Reds need Phillips healthy and he has been hampered by a hamstring injury most of the season. He has a .333/.333/.667 line in just 9 at bats at #4.
If Phillips isn’t playing and the Reds want production, they need to bat Votto in front of Jay Bruce at 3 and 4. Bruce has struggled to a .229/.250/.458 line in the 5-spot without protection behind him, striking out 13 times in 48 at bats. Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig were both left handed hitters and seemed to hit well batting back to back in the Yankees order in the late 1920′s. I wonder if Miller Huggins and his three championships and six pennants had a book on how to put lineups together like managers today?
Not Red Hot
The Cincinnati Reds have made big news for the last few months between their big trade for Mat Latos and the huge contracts to both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. One thing they are not in the news for, to this point, is their incredible hitting. The Reds are currently 28th in the Majors in hitting, with a team average of .191 through 9 games. Take a look at their hit totals for the year:
10, 6, 8, 3, 4, 14, 5, 5, 2.
Keep in mind that the 14 hits they had against the Cardinals on Wednesday, they left 13 on base, and the 10 hits from Opening Day had 9 left on base. The Reds just aren’t scoring enough runs because they can’t get any hits. They haven’t had the easiest schedule in the world with the new-look Miami Marlins, the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals, and the improving Washington Nationals, but a 3-6 record wasn’t what fans and ownership was looking for as the team heads into win now mode.
You can’t blame Zack Cozart (.313), Joey Votto (.290), or Brandon Phillips (just 16 at bats due to injury to hamstring, .250), but just about everyone else could be labeled an issue. Jay Bruce has 3 HR and 6 RBI with an .802 OPS, but he has 8 K’s in 34 at bats and a .235 average. Drew Stubbs is at .147 with 12 K’s in 34 at bats, certainly not improving on his atrocious contact rate that worried the club last year. Ryan Ludwick (.150), Ryan Hanigan (.118), and Scott Rolen (.111) round out the apparent regulars, while Devin Mesoraco (.167 in 12 at bats) and Chris Heisey (.188 in 16 at bats) continue to be youngsters losing out to the veteran loving, toothpick toting Dusty Baker.
Regardless of who is playing, it doesn’t seem to be working. As the Reds looked to capitalize on the departure of NL Central foes Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the long-term commitments and trades developed expectations that, to this point, they have fallen well short of. With such dynamic talent in Votto, Phillips, and Bruce, the lineup is capable of more. The issue could be Phillips’ absence, the fact that Dusty HAS TO split up Votto and Bruce (and has done so with Scott Rolen and Ryan Ludwick in the clean-up spot), or it could be a challenging schedule. Expectations are high and if they keep flopping like they are, fans aren’t going to show up in Cincinnati, and if fans don’t show up, they already need to start wondering about how they are going to be paying Phillips and Votto in the coming seasons.
