Results tagged ‘ Brandon Beachy ’

What To Do With Beachy…

Beachy2The Atlanta Braves are 32-22, 4.5 games in front of the Washington Nationals in the NL East heading into Saturday’s game in the nation’s capital. After starting the season 12-1, the Braves have struggled to find consistency out of two of their (expected) star, offensive talents, as B.J. Upton and Jason Heyward have combined to hit .183/.285/.244 over 305 plate appearances, with 14 extra-base hits and 16 RBI. Atlanta is doing it all with pitching, as the group has performed very well, ranking 10th in MLB in starter ERA (3.71):

Rk Pos W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1 SP Mike Minor* 7 2 2.48 11 11 72.2 53 21 20 7 14 66 0.922 6.6 8.2 4.71
2 SP Paul Maholm* 6 4 3.74 11 11 67.1 65 31 28 5 21 51 1.277 8.7 6.8 2.43
3 SP Kris Medlen 1 6 3.48 11 11 64.2 64 30 25 8 24 48 1.361 8.9 6.7 2.00
4 SP Julio Teheran 3 2 3.71 10 10 63.0 70 26 26 8 13 44 1.317 10.0 6.3 3.38
5 SP Tim Hudson 4 4 5.37 11 11 62.0 65 37 37 8 17 45 1.323 9.4 6.5 2.65
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/1/2013.

With the starting rotation looking very good overall, what will the Braves do with Brandon Beachy, who has now made two rehab starts as part of his return from Tommy John surgery. Beachy has had a pretty remarkable career to this point:

Year Age Tm W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 23 ATL 0 2 3.00 3 3 15.0 16 9 5 0 7 15 1.533 9.6 9.0 2.14
2011 24 ATL 7 3 3.68 25 25 141.2 125 62 58 16 46 169 1.207 7.9 10.7 3.67
2012 25 ATL 5 5 2.00 13 13 81.0 49 24 18 6 29 68 0.963 5.4 7.6 2.34
3 Yrs 12 10 3.07 41 41 237.2 190 95 81 22 82 252 1.144 7.2 9.5 3.07
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/1/2013.

Prior to his injury in 2012, Beachy was putting up ace-like numbers, and over his brief, 41-start career, he has been pretty fantastic, averaging over a strikeout per inning, as well as above-average ERA and WHIP totals. With his return, the Atlanta Braves will have a difficult decision to make with their rotation: Who goes to make room for Beachy?

Hudson1If you took Tim Hudson, who has five quality starts in 11 tries (45 percent), and his numbers out of the current rotation, the staff ERA would be 3.33, which would be 3rd (behind St. Louis and Cincinnati). Hudson is in the final year of his contract and he turns 38 years old in July. One could question if he has what it takes to thrive over the rest of the season, given the team’s inability to find offensive success, especially as the races heat up in the later months of the season, but is his “experience” worth keeping around?

Julio Teheran has been nothing short of spectacular over his last seven starts, compiling a 2.49 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 32:6 K:BB over 47 innings. Teheran turned 22 years old in January and after being rated the No.4 prospect in baseball by MLB.com and the No.5 prospect in baseball by Baseball America prior to the 2012 season, Teheran has reinforced his skills, his status, and his ability to contribute at the major league level; however, is his lack of extended success and experience capable of forcing the Braves to remove him from the rotation?

Courtesy: USAToday.com

Courtesy: USAToday.com

Kris Medlen may not have the greatest record, but he has proven himself as a starting pitcher over his career, compiling these statistics:

I W L ERA GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
16 8 2.98 41 2 1 250.2 224 92 83 27 61 213 1.137 7.6 3.49
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/1/2013.

Medlen’s success, despite his current 1-6 record, would seemingly keep him locked into the rotation; however, due to his success in the bullpen (2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 90 appearances), should the Braves consider another switch for the 27-year-old, 5’10″ right-hander?

Mike Minor looks like an ace in 2013 and he has been since the All-Star break of 2012, having compiled a 2.31 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 133:30 K:BB over 160 innings. He would seem to be going nowhere anytime soon, having shown that he is a shutdown arm for the squad, in spite of his career 4.00 ERA.

Paul Maholm has been very consistent for Atlanta since being acquired from the Chicago Cubs last season. While he doesn’t thrive in any particular part of the game (ERA, WHIP, or K:9), Maholm is a very good mid-rotation starter that will give the team an average to above-average start every fifth day.

Should the club go to a six-man rotation? The move could make some sense. Why?

  • Julio Teheran will be on an innings limit due to his lack of experience at the major league and minor league level
  • Kris Medlen had Tommy John surgery on 8/18/2010
  • Brandon Beachy had Tommy John surgery on 6/21/2012
  • Tim Hudson had Tommy John surgery on 8/8/2008 and back surgery on 11/28/2011

While there has been some time between several of those surgeries and today, would the extra day of rest keep the Braves starters fresher and keep them in the rotation this season, so they don’t have to make a Stephen Strasburg-like shutdown of any of their starters when their presence matters most?

Beachy3There could be injuries that ease Beachy’s transition back into the rotation or the Braves could make a trade for more offensive help, but if those things don’t happen, their pitching depth will only help them be a stronger team. It’s just unfortunate that someone may have to go to an unexpected bullpen role or be sent to the minor leagues.


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Fun With Projections

Looking over the current leaderboards, some players are really showing some crazy skills early in the year.  Below are some potential records.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers

.481/.525/.1000, 185 R, 301 H, 46 2B, 0 3B, 93 HR, 231 RBI, 12 SB

Simply amazing.  Kemp is hitting like no one I’ve ever seen right now.  He’s not going to do this all year, but he was worthy of the NL MVP last year, and he’ll certainly win it in 2012.  Needless to say, Kemp would break several records.  He said that he was aiming for a 50/50 season in 2012, but he can’t steal bases when he hits the ball and has to touch home plate right afterwards with all of his homers.

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

.321/.429/.321, 116 R, 197 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 23 RBI, 104 SB

Bonifacio is on pace for 197 singles and ZERO extra-base hits.  He is also on pace to steal 100 bases, something that hasn’t been done since Vince Coleman stole 109 in 1987.

Derek Jeter, Yankees

.359/.373/.609, 116 R, 266 H, 46 2B, 0 3B, 46 HR, 127 RBI, 0 SB

So, he’s done, right?  After hitting an “awful” .270 and .297 the last two season, Jeter is back to his old self and more.  He isn’t going to post numbers like A-Rod did at shortstop when all is said and done, but a Jeter-like season is definitely within reach.

Pitching Projections

No one will ever win 59 games like good ol’ Old Hoss Radbourn did in 1884 for the Providence Grays, but Ivan Nova, Lance Lynn, and Roy Halladay are on pace to go 35-0 in 2012.

Ross Detwiler beat out John Lannon for the Washington Nationals #5 starter job and has only gone 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA through three starts, good for a 22-0 record in 32 projected starts.

Matt Harrison of the Rangers is also 2-0 in his two starts, with a dazzling 0.64 ERA in two starts, good for a 25-0 record in 25 projected starts.

Brandon Beachy has been absolutely filthy, compiling a 2-1 record with a 0.47 ERA and .162 average allowed in his three starts.  He’s on pace for a 23-12 record over 35 projected starts.

Javy Guerra beat out Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers closer job this spring.  He’s already closed out 7 games, so he is on pace for 81 saves, which would break Francisco Rodriguez’s 2008 record of 62 by a few.  The Dodgers have to keep winning, which Matt Kemp seems to be capable of doing on his own, ala Bugs Bunny.

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