Results tagged ‘ Boston Red Sox ’
Sizzlin’ Future Stars: Minor League Report, 5/10
With the season underway and some fans already looking forward to next year, even this early, it is a good time to look down on the farms for some names that you should get to know. Everyone knows who Wil Myers, Dylan Bundy, and Oscar Taveras are at this point, so these are players performing at elite levels who may not be household names…yet.
Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City Royals
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 18 | Royals | FRk | 0 | 1 | 2.78 | 10 | 5 | 22.2 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1.456 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 2.20 |
| 2010 | 19 | 2 Teams | Rk-FRk | 4 | 3 | 3.08 | 17 | 9 | 64.1 | 58 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 71 | 1.181 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 3.94 |
| 2010 | 19 | Royals | FRk | 0 | 1 | 2.31 | 3 | 3 | 11.2 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.857 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 13.00 |
| 2010 | 19 | Royals | Rk | 4 | 2 | 3.25 | 14 | 6 | 52.2 | 49 | 28 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 58 | 1.253 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 3.41 |
| 2011 | 20 | Kane County | A | 4 | 6 | 4.27 | 19 | 19 | 84.1 | 82 | 43 | 40 | 8 | 24 | 88 | 1.257 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 3.67 |
| 2012 | 21 | 3 Teams | A+-AA-Rk | 4 | 7 | 3.62 | 23 | 23 | 109.1 | 92 | 49 | 44 | 8 | 42 | 130 | 1.226 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 3.10 |
| 2012 | 21 | Royals | Rk | 0 | 0 | 2.45 | 1 | 1 | 3.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.091 | 7.4 | 17.2 | 7.00 |
| 2012 | 21 | Wilmington | A+ | 3 | 5 | 3.30 | 16 | 16 | 76.1 | 66 | 32 | 28 | 7 | 28 | 98 | 1.231 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 3.50 |
| 2012 | 21 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | 1 | 2 | 4.60 | 6 | 6 | 29.1 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 1.227 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 1.92 |
| 2013 | 22 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | 3 | 0 | 1.84 | 6 | 6 | 29.1 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 43 | 1.023 | 5.8 | 13.2 | 3.91 |
| 5 Seasons | 15 | 17 | 3.45 | 75 | 62 | 310.0 | 279 | 143 | 119 | 20 | 100 | 343 | 1.223 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 3.43 | |||
Ventura tends to be overlooked due to his height. Despite being just 5’11″ and 180 pounds, the soon-to-be 22-year-old with a mid-to-upper 90′s fastball is doing all that he can to create some hype and become one of the top prospects in baseball. Prior to the 2013 season, Ventura was ranked by Baseball America as the No.85 prospect and by MLB.com as the No.60 prospect in baseball. While he could end up in the bullpen due to his reliance on his dominant fastball and excellent curve, he could still improve his changeup enough to become a rotation fixture in Kansas City. His last two starts have been absolutely dominant in Double-A, as he has a 0.00 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and a 20:5 K:BB in 11 innings. Tim Lincecum, Whitey Ford, and Pedro Martinez had some success as pitchers under six feet tall, so don’t squash the idea that Ventura could dominate as a starter.
Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 19 | Greenville | A | 12 | 5 | 4.87 | 23 | 22 | 101.2 | 100 | 58 | 55 | 10 | 47 | 130 | 1.446 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 2.77 |
| 2013 | 20 | Salem | A+ | 3 | 1 | 2.25 | 6 | 6 | 32.0 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 0.875 | 4.8 | 11.2 | 3.64 |
| 2 Seasons | 15 | 6 | 4.24 | 29 | 28 | 133.2 | 117 | 67 | 63 | 12 | 58 | 170 | 1.309 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 2.93 | |||
The anti-Ventura, Owens is a 6’6″ left-hander with three solid pitches in the Red Sox organization. While other young pitchers, like Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo, and Brandon Workman, are thriving in the system’s higher levels, Owens is dominating in High-A and demonstrating statistics that match his skills, something that wasn’t true last season. Owens is missing more bats and, while he won’t turn 21 years old until July, could see a few starts in Double-A this season. The Red Sox have to be excited about the progress that he has shown this season.
Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 20 | Lowell | A- | 32 | 133 | 114 | 21 | 34 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 19 | .298 | .398 | .500 | .898 | 57 |
| 2012 | 21 | Greenville | A | 118 | 526 | 455 | 84 | 139 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 62 | 51 | 61 | 90 | .305 | .394 | .433 | .827 | 197 |
| 2013 | 22 | Salem | A+ | 29 | 126 | 108 | 22 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 18 | 16 | .380 | .468 | .667 | 1.135 | 72 |
| 3 Seasons | 179 | 785 | 677 | 127 | 214 | 61 | 9 | 11 | 104 | 73 | 96 | 125 | .316 | .406 | .482 | .888 | 326 | |||
Cecchini is Owens’ teammate with High-A Salem, and while he doesn’t possess the normal hitting skills of a dynamic corner infielder, he is seems to be a robotic producer. Cecchini currently leads the Carolina League in total bases, and while he has just four home runs, his 19 extra-base hits, 10 stolen bases, and .468 on-base percentage show the type of talent that he has. At 22, it may be time to wonder if he’ll be able to produce enough pop to be valuable at third, especially with the Red Sox potentially moving Xander Bogaerts off of short in the future; however, hits 38 doubles last season could turn into home runs as he continues to fill his 6’2″ frame. He’s a pure hitter and possesses sabermetric skills that the Red Sox front office is known to drool over.
D.J. Baxendale, RHP, Minnesota Twins
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | G | GS | GF | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 21 | 2 Teams | A-Rk | 0 | 0 | 0.96 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 18.2 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 0.804 | 6.3 | 14.9 | 15.50 |
| 2013 | 22 | Fort Myers | A+ | 5 | 0 | 1.49 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 36.1 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0.826 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 5.83 |
| 2 Seasons | 5 | 0 | 1.31 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 55.0 | 37 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 66 | 0.818 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 8.25 | |||
This is really digging deep, but after striking out 10 while not allowing a run over seven innings in his last start, Baxendale could finally get noticed. A 10th round pick out of Arkansas in the 2012 MLB Draft, Baxendale was moved to starting pitcher this season by the Twins. Due to the club’s horrific starting pitching, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him move quickly if he continues to have this type of success. His strikeout rate isn’t going to overwhelm you, but the fact that he doesn’t allow many free passes is very encouraging. The only scouting reports that I’ve seen on him mention a 3/4 arm slot, an 88 to 91 mph fastball, and an average to solid slider and curve, but his ability to thrive while pitching in the tough SEC while at Arkansas as a reason to not count him out. Mound presence and confidence can go a long way in success, and Baxendale’s early results show that he could become useful for the Twins.
Rob Refsnyder, 2B, New York Yankees
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 21 | Charleston | A | 46 | 182 | 162 | 22 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 16 | 25 | .241 | .319 | .364 | .683 | 59 |
| 2013 | 22 | 2 Teams | A+-A | 33 | 157 | 130 | 23 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 13 | 22 | 22 | .385 | .490 | .515 | 1.006 | 67 |
| 2013 | 22 | Charleston | A | 13 | 62 | 54 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 12 | .370 | .452 | .481 | .933 | 26 |
| 2013 | 22 | Tampa | A+ | 20 | 95 | 76 | 14 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 16 | 10 | .395 | .516 | .539 | 1.055 | 41 |
| 2 Seasons | 79 | 339 | 292 | 45 | 89 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 38 | 47 | .305 | .398 | .432 | .830 | 126 | |||
You have to assume that Robinson Cano isn’t going to be leaving New York anytime soon, and it is questionable as to whether he will ever move off of second base if or when he does sign a long-term extension with the Yankees; however, what are the Yankees going to do if Cano doesn’t re-sign with the club? Nearly all of their top prospects are outfielders and with the club sitting on the declining skills and lofty contracts of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, will the club look for an expensive free agent option to replace him if he does leave? Robert Refsnyder doesn’t have a name that should be familiar to anyone, but if he continues to hit the way that he has this season, he could quickly become a part of the Yankees’ plans. A 5th round pick out of the University of Arizona in the 2012 MLB Draft, Refsnyder won the Most Outstanding Player award in the 2012 College World Series by leading the Wildcats to the title. While his introduction to professional ball in 2012 wasn’t fantastic, he did show solid on-base skills and a little bit of speed. He has already been promoted to Tampa this season and he has responded with a 1.055 OPS in his first 20 games after posting a .933 OPS in 13 games in Low-A. He is short on home run power but he does have solid gap power, speed, and excellent plate discipline. If he maintains this production, it wouldn’t be too crazy to see him as a second baseman and leadoff hitter for a Cano-less Yankees team in a couple of years.
Roberto Osuna, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 16 | Mexico | AAA | 0 | 1 | 5.49 | 13 | 2 | 19.2 | 25 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 1.831 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.09 |
| 2012 | 17 | 2 Teams | Rk-A- | 2 | 0 | 2.27 | 12 | 9 | 43.2 | 32 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 1.076 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 3.27 |
| 2012 | 17 | Bluefield | Rk | 1 | 0 | 1.50 | 7 | 4 | 24.0 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 1.000 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 4.00 |
| 2012 | 17 | Vancouver | A- | 1 | 0 | 3.20 | 5 | 5 | 19.2 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 1.169 | 6.4 | 11.4 | 2.78 |
| 2013 | 18 | Lansing | A | 1 | 2 | 3.63 | 5 | 5 | 22.1 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0.851 | 6.0 | 12.5 | 7.75 |
| 3 Seasons | 3 | 3 | 3.36 | 30 | 16 | 85.2 | 72 | 39 | 32 | 9 | 30 | 92 | 1.191 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 3.07 | |||
Osuna just turned 18 years old in February and, while most boys his age are gearing up for high school graduation and prom night, Osuna is pitching for the Lansing Lugnuts and overmatching his competition in Low-A. At 6’2″, 230 pounds, Osuna has a solid frame that seems capable of handling a lot of innings, which could still grow. Hopefully, it wouldn’t grow like Bartolo Colon…Regardless, Osuna has very good stuff, he appears to have very good control, and if he keeps the ball in the park, he could be a tremendous asset for the Blue Jays. After several trades this winter to upgrade their club (which hasn’t worked out so well), the club could use an excellent season from Osuna to rebuild their minor league system.
Stetson Allie, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 20 | State College | A- | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 2012 | 21 | 2 Teams | Rk-A | 44 | 173 | 150 | 23 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 21 | 50 | .213 | .314 | .340 | .654 | 51 |
| 2012 | 21 | Pirates | Rk | 42 | 173 | 150 | 23 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 21 | 50 | .213 | .314 | .340 | .654 | 51 |
| 2012 | 21 | West Virginia | A | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 2013 | 22 | West Virginia | A | 32 | 143 | 121 | 20 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 39 | .339 | .427 | .603 | 1.030 | 73 |
| 3 Seasons | 91 | 316 | 271 | 43 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 6 | 39 | 89 | .269 | .365 | .458 | .823 | 124 | |||
Taken in the 2nd round of the 2010 MLB Draft after posting a 1.29 ERA with 134 strikeouts in 60 innings as a senior in high school, the Pirates had hoped that they had another first round talent in Allie, after taking Jameson Taillon earlier in the draft. Allie didn’t pan out, as he posted some horrific numbers while on the mound (7.76 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 29:37 K:BB in 26.2 IP) before he was moved to first base. While it didn’t go so well last season, the 2013 season has been a bit kinder to him. It is still the Sally League (Low-A) and Allie is 22 years old, but he is showing very good power and is second in the league in total bases. He is a long way off and he has a lot to prove, and his age could become a factor in the Pirates philosophy in moving him through the organization, as well. He does live, though, and you have to root for a guy who had such tremendous stuff and lost it so abruptly.
Related articles
- Sizzling Future Stars: Minor League Report, 5/4 (thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com)
- 2013 Predictions and Useless Guesses (thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com)
- Sizzling Future Stars: Minor League Report, 4/24 (thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com)
Sizzling Future Stars: Minor League Report, 5/4
With the season underway and some fans already looking forward to next year, even this early, it is a good time to look down on the farms for some names that you should get to know. Everyone knows who Wil Myers, Dylan Bundy, and Oscar Taveras are at this point, so these are players performing at elite levels who may not be household names…yet.
Danny Salazar, RHP, Cleveland Indians
| Year | Age | Lg | Lev | W | L | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 17 | DOSL | FRk | 5 | 3 | 1.96 | 14 | 64.1 | 52 | 25 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 49 | 0.995 | 7.3 | 4.08 |
| 2008 | 18 | GULF | Rk | 4 | 2 | 2.87 | 11 | 53.1 | 46 | 19 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 1.106 | 7.8 | 3.31 |
| 2009 | 19 | SALL | A | 5 | 7 | 4.44 | 20 | 107.1 | 114 | 60 | 53 | 10 | 40 | 65 | 1.435 | 9.6 | 1.63 |
| 2010 | 20 | MIDW | A | 1 | 1 | 4.45 | 7 | 32.1 | 34 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 1.454 | 9.5 | 1.77 |
| 2011 | 21 | 2 Lgs | A-Rk | 0 | 2 | 3.07 | 8 | 14.2 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1.227 | 8.6 | 4.50 |
| 2011 | 21 | ARIZ | Rk | 0 | 0 | 2.70 | 5 | 6.2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1.200 | 8.1 | 5.50 |
| 2011 | 21 | MIDW | A | 0 | 2 | 3.38 | 3 | 8.0 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1.250 | 9.0 | 3.50 |
| 2012 | 22 | 2 Lgs | A+-AA | 5 | 2 | 2.36 | 22 | 87.2 | 71 | 25 | 23 | 4 | 27 | 76 | 1.118 | 7.3 | 2.81 |
| 2012 | 22 | CARL | A+ | 1 | 2 | 2.68 | 16 | 53.2 | 46 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 1.211 | 7.7 | 2.79 |
| 2012 | 22 | EL | AA | 4 | 0 | 1.85 | 6 | 34.0 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 0.971 | 6.6 | 2.88 |
| 2013 | 23 | EL | AA | 2 | 3 | 2.83 | 6 | 28.2 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 1.081 | 6.9 | 4.78 |
| 7 Seasons | 22 | 20 | 3.18 | 88 | 388.1 | 353 | 161 | 137 | 29 | 118 | 317 | 1.213 | 8.2 | 2.69 | |||
Salazar had Tommy John surgery and missed nearly two full seasons of development, but since returning for good in 2012, he has a 2.48 ERA over 116.1 innings, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 119:36 K:BB (3.31 K:BB). The Indians, who seemed to have a lot of depth at starting pitcher during the spring, are in need of some talent at the major league roster. Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister have pitched well, but injuries and inconsistency, especially from Ubaldo Jimenez, brings a need of some sort of stability. The Indians could use a little youth and homegrown talent in their rotation, and if Salazar continues pitching this well, he’ll be on his way to Cleveland sooner than later. A 43:9 K:BB in 28.2 innings is downright dominant.
Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 22 | 3 Teams | AA-A+-AAA | 11 | 6 | 2.96 | 26 | 152.0 | 136 | 55 | 50 | 7 | 39 | 126 | 1.151 | 8.1 | 3.23 |
| 2010 | 22 | Fort Myers | A+ | 4 | 1 | 1.87 | 7 | 43.1 | 33 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 1.038 | 6.9 | 3.33 |
| 2010 | 22 | New Britain | AA | 7 | 5 | 3.68 | 16 | 93.0 | 91 | 39 | 38 | 5 | 22 | 77 | 1.215 | 8.8 | 3.50 |
| 2010 | 22 | Rochester | AAA | 0 | 0 | 1.72 | 3 | 15.2 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1.085 | 6.9 | 1.80 |
| 2011 | 23 | Rochester | AAA | 3 | 8 | 4.81 | 18 | 95.1 | 109 | 57 | 51 | 11 | 27 | 91 | 1.427 | 10.3 | 3.37 |
| 2012 | 24 | 3 Teams | Rk-A+-AAA | 0 | 2 | 4.13 | 11 | 28.1 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 1.129 | 8.3 | 5.50 |
| 2012 | 24 | Twins | Rk | 0 | 0 | 2.45 | 7 | 14.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0.886 | 5.5 | 4.00 |
| 2012 | 24 | Fort Myers | A+ | 0 | 0 | 2.57 | 2 | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1.000 | 7.7 | 7.00 |
| 2012 | 24 | Rochester | AAA | 0 | 2 | 9.45 | 2 | 6.2 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1.800 | 14.8 | 10.00 |
| 2013 | 25 | Rochester | AAA | 1 | 4 | 4.26 | 6 | 31.2 | 32 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 1.295 | 9.1 | 3.00 |
| 4 Seasons | 15 | 20 | 3.78 | 61 | 307.1 | 303 | 140 | 129 | 23 | 81 | 277 | 1.249 | 8.9 | 3.42 | |||
Gibson was an elite talent when he was drafted 22nd overall in the 2009 MLB draft out of the University of Missouri. His stock had fallen a bit due to a stress fracture in his elbow. He proved that he was healthy in 2010 before needing Tommy John surgery in 2011. After rehab, he returned in 2012 with some mediocre numbers, and while his statistics don’t look fantastic this year in Rochester, he has had a couple of short, rough outing out of the six that he has made, allowing five earned runs twice in a little over four innings in two different starts. If you ignore those two starts, Gibson has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 20:8 K:BB over 22.2 innings. The Twins will look for a little more consistency from Gibson before giving him a call, but he would immediately become one of the top two pitchers in their rotation, if not the best.
Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 17 | Red Sox | FRk | 3 | 1 | 2.90 | 13 | 62.0 | 44 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 22 | 60 | 1.065 | 6.4 | 2.73 |
| 2008 | 18 | Lowell | A- | 5 | 2 | 3.14 | 11 | 63.0 | 51 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 61 | 1.079 | 7.3 | 3.59 |
| 2009 | 19 | Greenville | A | 10 | 7 | 3.82 | 23 | 117.2 | 135 | 62 | 50 | 12 | 29 | 103 | 1.394 | 10.3 | 3.55 |
| 2010 | 20 | Salem | A+ | 9 | 11 | 4.06 | 26 | 128.2 | 120 | 65 | 58 | 11 | 42 | 102 | 1.259 | 8.4 | 2.43 |
| 2011 | 21 | 2 Teams | A+-AA | 6 | 13 | 6.79 | 25 | 102.0 | 125 | 86 | 77 | 16 | 39 | 65 | 1.608 | 11.0 | 1.67 |
| 2011 | 21 | Salem | A+ | 6 | 4 | 4.53 | 10 | 51.2 | 50 | 29 | 26 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 1.277 | 8.7 | 2.19 |
| 2011 | 21 | Portland | AA | 0 | 9 | 9.12 | 15 | 50.1 | 75 | 57 | 51 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 1.947 | 13.4 | 1.30 |
| 2012 | 22 | Portland | AA | 6 | 7 | 4.59 | 22 | 115.2 | 115 | 66 | 59 | 9 | 42 | 86 | 1.357 | 8.9 | 2.05 |
| 2013 | 23 | Altoona | AA | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 5 | 30.1 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 1.088 | 5.6 | 2.00 |
| 7 Seasons | 41 | 41 | 4.17 | 125 | 619.1 | 609 | 325 | 287 | 57 | 205 | 505 | 1.314 | 8.8 | 2.46 | |||
Pimentel doesn’t have a tremendous track record, but when you have a 0.30 ERA after five starts, you’re going to start getting noticed. Acquired from the Boston Red Sox as part of the Joel Hanrahan trade, Pimentel isn’t going to get the hype that Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon garnish, but he appears to have enough stuff to be a decent back-end of the rotation arm. He certainly needed to thrive after not really doing much good since the 2010 season. Since this is his third season in Double-A, maybe expectations should be tempered, even after a tremendous start, but if it continues, he’ll continue to peak interest.
Josmil Pinto, C, Minnesota Twins
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 17 | Twins/Blue Jays | FRk | 53 | 195 | 25 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 3 | 25 | 27 | .251 | .336 | .344 | .680 | 67 |
| 2007 | 18 | Twins | FRk | 54 | 171 | 18 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 29 | 23 | .193 | .327 | .269 | .596 | 46 |
| 2008 | 19 | Twins | Rk | 24 | 85 | 14 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 14 | .329 | .394 | .541 | .935 | 46 |
| 2009 | 20 | Elizabethton | Rk | 53 | 205 | 34 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 0 | 19 | 39 | .332 | .387 | .610 | .997 | 125 |
| 2010 | 21 | Beloit | A | 100 | 347 | 60 | 78 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 2 | 32 | 67 | .225 | .295 | .378 | .672 | 131 |
| 2011 | 22 | 2 Teams | A+-A | 73 | 253 | 25 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 14 | 46 | .261 | .301 | .395 | .697 | 100 |
| 2011 | 22 | Beloit | A | 9 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .250 | .278 | .438 | .715 | 14 |
| 2011 | 22 | Fort Myers | A+ | 64 | 221 | 21 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 12 | 36 | .262 | .305 | .389 | .694 | 86 |
| 2012 | 23 | 2 Teams | A+-AA | 105 | 396 | 53 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 43 | 73 | .295 | .362 | .482 | .844 | 191 |
| 2012 | 23 | Fort Myers | A+ | 93 | 349 | 45 | 103 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 39 | 63 | .295 | .361 | .473 | .834 | 165 |
| 2012 | 23 | New Britain | AA | 12 | 47 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 10 | .298 | .365 | .553 | .919 | 26 |
| 2013 | 24 | New Britain | AA | 27 | 107 | 21 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 13 | 21 | .327 | .405 | .533 | .938 | 57 |
| 8 Seasons | 489 | 1759 | 250 | 474 | 104 | 13 | 53 | 301 | 10 | 184 | 310 | .269 | .341 | .434 | .775 | 763 | |||
The Minnesota Twins are notoriously slow in their development of players. While they have Joe Mauer locked up for the next century with a seemingly unmovable contract (don’t tell Boston that after last season’s mega-deal), he could move to first base if or when Justin Morneau leaves via free agency for Pinto. At 24, he’s a little on the old side for Double-A, and his numbers overall haven’t been spectular throughout his development, things took a nice turn last year. His plate discipline and gap power seemed to increase, and he has carried that over nicely this season, with 11 extra-base hits and a .938 OPS for New Britain. Ryan Doumit is the “other catcher” on the Twins roster, so if Pinto continues to hit, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him become a useful piece to the Twins roster.
Erik Johnson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | Great Falls | Rk | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 2.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2.500 | 18.0 | 2.00 |
| 2012 | 22 | 2 Teams | A+-A | 6 | 5 | 2.53 | 17 | 92.1 | 82 | 34 | 26 | 3 | 29 | 87 | 1.202 | 8.0 | 3.00 |
| 2012 | 22 | Kannapolis | A | 2 | 2 | 2.30 | 9 | 43.0 | 39 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 19 | 39 | 1.349 | 8.2 | 2.05 |
| 2012 | 22 | Winston-Salem | A+ | 4 | 3 | 2.74 | 8 | 49.1 | 43 | 19 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 1.074 | 7.8 | 4.80 |
| 2013 | 23 | Birmingham | AA | 2 | 1 | 1.44 | 5 | 31.1 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 0.862 | 5.2 | 3.56 |
| 3 Seasons | 8 | 6 | 2.29 | 22 | 125.2 | 104 | 41 | 32 | 4 | 39 | 121 | 1.138 | 7.4 | 3.10 | |||
Johnson may not post dominant strikeout numbers, but his ability to keep runners from scoring is impressive. As he has moved up, his tits per nine has dropped at each level and he is not a little over a strikeout per inning, as well. Now in Double-A, the White Sox No.3 prospect, according to MLB.com, appears to be taking another step towards Chicago. While the club mourns the loss of Gavin Floyd to Tommy John surgery, Johnson could become an option later in the 2013 season, especially if he continues to dominate the opposition. The 2011 2nd round pick out of the University of California is certainly worth tracking.
Derek Dietrich, 2B, Miami Marlins
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 20 | Hudson Valley | A- | 45 | 179 | 33 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 42 | .279 | .340 | .419 | .759 | 75 |
| 2011 | 21 | Bowling Green | A | 127 | 480 | 73 | 133 | 34 | 4 | 22 | 81 | 5 | 38 | 128 | .277 | .346 | .502 | .848 | 241 |
| 2012 | 22 | 2 Teams | A+-AA | 132 | 505 | 71 | 141 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 75 | 4 | 32 | 114 | .279 | .338 | .457 | .796 | 231 |
| 2012 | 22 | Charlotte | A+ | 98 | 372 | 49 | 105 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 58 | 4 | 25 | 78 | .282 | .343 | .468 | .811 | 174 |
| 2012 | 22 | Montgomery | AA | 34 | 133 | 22 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 36 | .271 | .324 | .429 | .753 | 57 |
| 2013 | 23 | Jacksonville | AA | 26 | 94 | 16 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 21 | .287 | .417 | .500 | .917 | 47 |
| 4 Seasons | 330 | 1258 | 193 | 351 | 81 | 18 | 42 | 190 | 13 | 96 | 305 | .279 | .348 | .472 | .820 | 594 | |||
A smart acquisition by the Marlins this offseason in the Yunel Escobar deal, Dietrich is an under-the-radar prospect who seems to do nothing but hit, while playing a premium middle infield position. He was the Marlins No.8 prospect coming into the season (MLB.com), and he is currently 5th in the Southern League in total bases. He appears to have taken a drastically improved approach at the plate, as well, having taken 15 walks already after walking 32 times all season in 2012. With Donovan Solano ahead of him in Miami and a very weak group of talent there, especially with Giancarlo Stanton hurt, Dietrich could make an impact later this season, especially if he continues to rake the way that he has to this point in 2013.
Burch Smith, RHP, San Diego Padres
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | W | L | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | Padres | Rk | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2.000 | 13.5 | 4.00 | |
| 2012 | 22 | Lake Elsinore | A+ | 9 | 6 | .600 | 3.85 | 26 | 128.2 | 127 | 62 | 55 | 11 | 27 | 137 | 1.197 | 8.9 | 5.07 |
| 2013 | 23 | San Antonio | AA | 1 | 2 | .333 | 1.15 | 6 | 31.1 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 0.702 | 4.6 | 6.17 |
| 3 Seasons | 10 | 8 | .556 | 3.33 | 32 | 162.0 | 146 | 72 | 60 | 12 | 34 | 178 | 1.111 | 8.1 | 5.24 | |||
How can you be the 20th ranked prospect (MLB.com) in a pretty weak system, when you’re fastball sits 93-95 while touching 97 and you post numbers as absurd as Smith has? The guy has a 174:33 K:BB over his last 160 innings, and while his 3.85 ERA looks inflated from 2012, he was pitching in the hitter’s paradise California League. Sure, his secondary stuff may be lagging, but Tony Cingrani has looked pretty solid in the majors and throughout his minor league career using a fastball at alarmingly high rates. The fact that dynasty league fantasy baseball players may not be familiar with him is also surprising, considering he will be pitching half of his games in San Diego. Smith has dominated this season, and for a 14th round selection out of Oklahoma, the 6’4″ right-hander has been a smart investment by the Padres.
Related articles
- Eric Mack: Fantasy baseball Prospect Watch — Marcell Ozuna’s surprise major league debut (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
- 2013 Predictions and Useless Guesses (thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com)
- Sizzling Future Stars: Minor League Report, 4/24 (thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com)
2013 Predictions and Useless Guesses
I did this last year and it was interesting, as they were mostly useless guesses as opposed to valuable predictions. However, with days until real games begin, I figured that I would join in the fun of putting this out there so that we can all look back and see just how wrong I was when October rolls around. Let the incorrectness begin!
AL East Champion
I’m buying the upgrades to the Jays roster. A great improvement to the pitching staff, and just in time to pounce on an AL East division where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox don’t look like major factors. While the Rays and Orioles look to maintain success without a huge payroll increase, the Jays will utilize their awesome blend of speed, power, and rotation depth to take the crown in the East.
AL Central Champion
Detroit Tigers
Like the Jays, the Tigers will impress with their strong rotation, and while the club plays scetchy, at best, defense, the presence of Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera is enough to make them strong contenders in a weak, yet improving, AL Central. The signing of Torii Hunter and the return of Victor Martinez will only improve the offense, while the club will hope that Austin Jackson continues his tremendous improvement and that Andy Dirks can hold down left until Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia prove themselves ready. The bullpen issues are something to be concerned about, but someone out of Bruce Rondon, Phil Coke, and Joaquin Benoit will step up.
AL West Champion
How do you improve a lineup that had Albert Pujols and Mike Trout in it a season ago? Well, by signing Josh Hamilton, of course! The Angels could be the best offensive team in baseball, but they’ll need to be, after seemingly taking the “we-will-outscore-your-team-because-we-don’t-have-pitching” way of building a roster. After losing out of Zack Greinke, the club traded for Tommy “my shoulder is gonna rip off of my body at any moment” Hanson, signing Joe Blanton, and trading for Jason Vargas, who could benefit from continuing his career in another pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Halos have enough offense to overcome their pitching shortcomings, though, and could easily manage to score about 6-8 runs per game.
AL Wild Cards
Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays
The Rangers may have lost Josh Hamilton, but they still have a dynamic offense, led by Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre. While it is highly unlikely that Lance Berkman can truly fill the shoes of Hamilton, he is just a season removed from revitalizing his career in St. Louis. Can he do it again? Well, if he can’t, the club will need more from their rotation, which is solid, but not nearly a lock to be great as others in the AL. Yu Darvish is the anchor, but with Matt Harrison‘s low strikeout rates, one has to wonder if he can maintain the 32 wins and 3.34 ERA that he has put up the last two seasons. Derek Holland needs to bounce back, as well, if Texas is to be taken seriously. If they don’t get the right breaks, this could easily be the Oakland Athletics, once again.
The Rays gambled on cashing in two seasons of James Shields for more young talent, acquiring a great haul from the Royals. While the rotation will miss the strength and innings that Shields brought, David Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alex Cobb will be solid, while Roberto Hernandez and Jeff Niemann fight over the No.5 spot. The Rays have to get some production from Desmond Jennings and Yunel Escobar up the middle, while hoping that Evan Longoria stays healthy until Wil Myers can get called up. They need power in the lineup and on Opening Day, Longoria and Ben Zobrist seem like their only hope. Pitching and defense has worked for the last several years, and it will again in 2013.
Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
While everyone will focus on the huge trades that brought the club Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, and others, Bautista will be the spark plug to the offense due to his tremendous power and ability to get on base. With his wrist fully recovered and a dynamic lineup around him, opposing clubs will be forced to pitch to the slugger, which will result is a season that should resemble his 2010 and 2011 seasons, with overwhelming power and run producing statistics.
AL Cy Young
Courtesy: dcobb1621.blogspot.com
Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
To say that Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball would be an understatement. He turned 30 years old in February and since 2008, he has gone 89-48 with a 3.28 ERA over 1,154.2 innings, and while those numbers have been outmatched by only CC Sabathia in the American League (91-39 with a 3.11 ERA), Verlander seems to have a pretty tight grip on the best pitcher in MLB title for the moment. While Yu Darvish and David Price begin to catch up to him, Verlander will hold control it for another season, with another 20-win season and an ERA under 3.00 for the Tigers.
AL Manager of the Year
Terry Francona, Cleveland Indians
While he actually has very little to do with the drastic changes that the Indians have undergone this offseason (that honor belongs to GM Chris Antonetti), Terry Francona will get a lot of credit for the Indians posting their first winning season since their 2007 ALCS appearance. Manny Acta never seemed capable of keeping successful starts going over the 162-game season, but Francona’s resume proves that he is capable of that, regardless of the 2011 Boston Red Sox collapse. While the Tribe won’t make the playoffs, they will be very competitive and, possibly, be a nuisance to the Tigers in the AL Central for most of the season. For that, Francona will deserve the honor for making a Cleveland sports franchise matter again.
AL Rookie of the Year
Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
He won’t start the season with the major league club, but Myers will be up in June, once the Rays can guarantee that he won’t gain Super Two arbitration eligibility, taking over the left field job from Matt Joyce, while manning right field when Ben Zobrist goes to second or short. Myers exploded in the minors last season, hitting an absurd .314/.387/.600 with 37 home runs between the Royals’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. While he could work on his contact rate (he struck out 140 times in 522 at-bats), Myers is a much needed offensive force for the Rays, who need someone besides Evan Longoria and Zobrist to produce consistently. Expect a .260/.320/.460 line with nearly 20 home runs if Myers gets the call in June, which should be good enough to win the AL ROY with Jurickson Profar waiting for a shot in Triple-A for the Rangers and so few players getting an opportunity early in the 2013 season.
NL East Champion
Washington Nationals
Bryce Harper will be better than he was in 2012 and Stephen Strasburg won’t have an innings limit. Really, this is all that you need to know, but with the addition of a leadoff hitter in Denard Span and another fantastic arm in Rafael Soriano to add to Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen, the Nationals are about as good as it gets in MLB for a lock to go to the playoffs. Add in Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche, and you have a team capable of winning 95-100 games. Yes…they’re that good.
NL Central Champion
Cincinnati Reds
What do you get when you take an outstanding team without a leadoff hitter and you add a guy with a lifetime .386 on-base percentage in that spot? You get a team with a very bad defensive outfield that plays in a hitters paradise and the 2013 version of the Cincinnati Reds. Shin-Soo Choo could be a liability in center, but his offensive skills fit perfectly into the Reds lineup. Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto will need some help from Choo and Ryan Ludwick, but with a very good starting rotation and great depth in the bullpen with the move of Aroldis Chapman back to closer, the Reds will battle the Nationals for the best record in MLB in 2013.
NL West Champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
Like the Dodgers, I’m buying. The addition of Zack Greinke was huge, but the trade with the Boston Red Sox that brought Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez, along with their massive contracts, to the Dodgers will begin paying dividends this season. While the Hanley Ramirez thumb injury is a slight issue to start the season, Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw are the right kind of awesome to overcome any issues like that. The Dodgers have great pitching depth, unless they make a trade in the next few days, to overcome any further arm issues for Chad Billingsley, and their bullpen is lights out, with flame-thrower Kenley Jansen sharing end-game duties with Brandon League…until Don Mattingley sees what everyone else does and puts Jansen there full-time. This team is dangerous if they stay healthy. The pitching is deep, but an injury to Crawford, Kemp, or Andre Ethier will cost them the division to the San Francisco Giants.
NL Wild Cards
Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals
The Atlanta Braves have an incredible roster. If Chipper Jones had hung around one more season, they may have had a chance at another World Series title for the old man. Unfortunately, Jones finally retired and third could be the clubs only weak spot, as Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson will share the job in 2013. The addition of B.J. Upton and Justin Upton will make the offense even more dangerous, as Jason Heyward continues to become one of the best players in baseball. Freddie Freeman got his eye issues worked out, so he will also improve in 2013, while the club will rely on a deep rotation, that will only get better when Brandon Beachy returns in June or July. By then, the Braves could have a very difficult choice, especially after seeing Julio Teheran thrive this spring, as someone will have to be removed from the rotation if the club is healthy. As far as the bullpen goes, one name is all you need: Craig Kimbrel.
The Cardinals continue to stick around and be contenders, even after losing Albert Pujols a season ago and, potentially, losing Chris Carpenter for the entire 2013 season. Adam Wainwright should re-establish himself as an ace this season, while Allen Craig will show that he is an MVP-caliber player if he would just stay healthy. Speaking of health, could fantasy baseball nerds be any more excited for the first of Carlos Beltran‘s injuries in 2013? If you don’t know why, you need to look up super-prospect Oscar Taveras. The Cards seem to have an endless supply of young arms, as well, as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez arrive and establish themselves in the majors.
NL MVP
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
Votto will do one of two things: 1) Post an on-base percentage approaching .500 (.474 in 2012) while never seeing a pitch worth hitting, or 2) Post numbers close to his 2010 MVP season (.324/.424/.600, 37 home runs) while earning his 2nd MVP. The Reds are going to have Votto hitting No.3 again, and with Shin-Soo Choo and Brandon Phillips hitting in front of him, Votto will easily exceed his career-high 113 RBI this season. With his knee healthy and a tremendous lineup and hitter’s paradise as a home ballpark, Joey Votto will win the NL MVP in 2013.
NL Cy Young
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
You can take Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw, while I go off the board (or rocker) to choose Madison Bumgarner for NL Cy Young. After tiring at the end of the 2012 season, Bumgarner knows that he has a lot to prove. Add on the fact that his WHIP fell from 1.21 in 2011 to 1.11 in 2012, and you can see that the 23-year-old left-hander can not only miss bats (191 K’s in each of the last two seasons), but he isn’t allowing many hits or walks. With a pitcher-friendly ballpark and loads of expectations on him due to his fall-off late last season, Bumgarner will show that he shouldn’t be overlooked due to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum being on the same roster.
NL Manager of the Year
Bud Black, San Diego Padres
There isn’t a whole lot to like about the Padres roster. They don’t have a superstar on the front of a video game, they don’t have a player that shows up to the MLB Fan Cave with an infamous twitter account, but they have an interesting team and a better manager. Bud Black can get a lot out of the club that he has. While the team will continue to struggle to score runs, at times, Chase Headley could provide enough power to get runs in bunches, and Yonder Alonso could thrive with the fences being moved in at Petco. Solid speed and gap power throughout the lineup will make the Padres a surprise team in 2013, and while the rotation is more patchwork than well thought out, the bullpen is tremendous, as it always seems to be. If the Friars can get anything out of Andrew Cashner, Clayton Richard, and Eric Stults, they’ll be a team capable of 82-85 wins, which isn’t playoff worthy, but worth giving Bud Black an award for.
NL Rookie of the Year
Courtesy: stlouiscardinalsbaseball.com
Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
You don’t get called a left-handed version of Vladimir Guerrero and get overlooked, and Taveras is that special of a talent. Like I mentioned above, once Carlos Beltran gets hurt (as in it IS going to happen), Taveras would, more than likely, get the call. Not only a Beltran injury, but an under performing Jon Jay could even be replaced by the super-prospect, as Taveras played 93 games in center for the Cards Double-A affiliate in 2012. Taveras will get enough at-bats to be valuable and he could do that as a fourth outfielder once June rolls around, but once he is in St. Louis, he won’t be leaving town for several years. A pure hitter in every sense of the label.
World Series Prediction
Washington Nationals defeat Los Angeles Angels, 4-2
Random, Bold Predictions
There is no rhyme or reason here, just as the title says:
- Bryce Harper will hit over 30 home runs in 2013, while posting an OPS near .940.
- Mike Trout won’t hit 30 home runs again, but he will steal 50 bases.
- Jose Reyes will stay healthy, even while playing on turf, and terrorize the AL East while stealing over 50 bases.
- Ike Davis will hit over 40 home runs after hitting 32 in 2012 while hitting just .227.
- Mat Latos will become the ace of the Cincinnati Reds, posting better overall numbers than Johnny Cueto and winning 20 games in 2013.
- Mike Minor proves that his second half from 2012 (6-4, 2.16 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 87.1 IP) wasn’ a fluke, as he becomes the Braves best starting pitcher in 2013.
- Jordan Zimmerman has a more impressive 2013 season than Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez and he will no longer be overlooked in a fantastic Washington rotation.
- Brandon Belt continues hitting like he has all spring, ripping 25 home runs after having a power outage in the earlier stages of his career (16 in 598 at-bats).
- Troy Tulowitzki stays healthy and benefits from Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler having All Star seasons to hit 40 home runs, making all of those fantasy baseball players that took him in the first round feel like the smartest men alive.
- Allen Craig becomes an All Star and hits over .300 with 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI.
- Carlos Santana hits 30+ home runs and will have the kind of hype that Buster Posey has right now during the 2013-2014 offseason.
- Jason Heyward finishes 2nd in NL MVP voting to Joey Votto, posting his first 30 HR/30 SB season for Atlanta.
- Domonic Brown keeps the Phillies left field job all season and posts a .270/.380/.450 line with solid production across the board. Philly fans hit Ruben Amaro, Jr. with batteries for not trusting in him sooner.
- Zack Greinke can’t handle the Los Angeles pressure and spotlight and misses time due to his anxiety disorder.
- Chris Sale pitches 200 innings and proves doubters about his bony frame and drastic innings increase in 2012 wrong.
- Drew Stubbs (remember him?) hits 20 home runs and steals 50 bases, revitalizing his career.
- Rick Porcello wins 17 games with a 3.20 ERA while striking out 180 batters…all because he began using his four-seam fastball for the first time in his career.
Breakout Stars
These guys are about to go bonkers in 2013. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…(obvious names not listed, i.e. Harper, Brown, Braun, Ike Davis)
Alex Cobb, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
Greg Holland, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
Chris Parmelee, OF, Minnesota Twins
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Dayan Viciedo, OF, Chicago White Sox
Dan Straily, RHP, Oakland Athletics (Bartolo Colon won’t last forever)
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners
Prospects to Watch
This has nothing to do with the Top 100 Prospects that I put out in December, but you will find some familiar names and others that will be players to keep an eye on, especially if they’re on your favorite team or if you’re in a keeper fantasy baseball league.
Jonathan Schoop, INF, Baltimore Orioles
Dorssys Paulino, INF, Cleveland Indians
J.R. Graham, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals
Yasel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros
Xander Bogaerts, INF, Boston Red Sox
Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres
Joey Gallo, INF, Texas Rangers
Who Is The Greatest Teenager Ever?
In 2012, Bryce Harper was the Rookie of the Year and an All-Star in his first season in MLB, having collected all of 536 plate appearances in the minor leagues before getting his final call to Washington. After a season of tremendous hype, production, and accolades, how can Bryce Harper follow-up?
To see where Harper may go, the first place that you should look is behind him, and all the great seasons produced by other tremendous teenagers.
Player A:
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1890 | 19 | 136 | 583 | 98 | 139 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 73 | 22 | 53 | 34 | .264 | .336 | .375 | .711 | 197 |
Player B:
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1926 | 17 | 35 | 61 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | .383 | .393 | .417 | .810 | 25 |
| 1927 | 18 | 82 | 180 | 23 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 9 | .282 | .335 | .380 | .716 | 62 |
| 1928 | 19 | 124 | 500 | 69 | 140 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 3 | 52 | 36 | .322 | .397 | .524 | .921 | 228 |
Player C:
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1953 | 18 | 30 | 30 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .250 | .300 | .357 | .657 | 10 |
| 1954 | 19 | 138 | 535 | 42 | 139 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 22 | 45 | .276 | .305 | .347 | .652 | 175 |
Player D:
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1905 | 18 | 41 | 164 | 19 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 23 | .240 | .288 | .300 | .588 | 45 |
| 1906 | 19 | 98 | 394 | 45 | 113 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 23 | 19 | 41 | .316 | .355 | .394 | .749 | 141 |
Player E:
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 19 | 127 | 506 | 61 | 120 | 23 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 16 | 44 | 83 | .264 | .329 | .420 | .748 | 191 |
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1964 | 19 | 111 | 444 | 69 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 35 | 78 | .290 | .354 | .530 | .883 | 214 |
Bryce Harper:
| Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 19 | 139 | 597 | 98 | 144 | 26 | 9 | 22 | 59 | 18 | 56 | 120 | .270 | .340 | .477 | .817 | 254 |
So, who is the competition?
Player A: George Davis
Player B: Mel Ott
Player C: Al Kaline
Player D: Ty Cobb
Player E: Ken Griffey, Jr.
Player F: Tony Conigliaro
It is impossible to predict future results in MLB.
No one could predict the injury that Conigliaro suffered. No one could predict Mel Ott hitting 42 home runs in his second full season (1929), Al Kaline hitting .340 in his second full season (1955), or Ty Cobb hitting .350 in his second full season (1907) based on their age-19 seasons above.
Courtesy: Wikipedia
George Davis, whose 1890 season was not very statistically aligned with Harper’s 2012 season due to a lack of power in the dead-ball era, has the greatest Similarity Score, 930, at Baseball Reference, when comparing Harper’s rookie season to any other 19-year-old in MLB history. Mel Ott was second, 928, and his second full season would mean that Harper is about to explode, as Ott posted a .328/.449/.635 with the aforementioned 42 home runs and a whopping 151 RBI for the New York Giants. However, using Similarity Scores for statistics alone and not factoring in age, Harper’s 2012 season was most similar to Bill Howerton, a career .274/.364/.472 hitter over all of four seasons in the majors.
No one could predict the injury that Conigliaro suffered. No one could predict Mel Ott hitting 42 home runs in his second full season (1929), Al Kaline hitting .340 in his second full season (1955), or Ty Cobb hitting .350 in his second full season (1907) based on their age-19 seasons above. There is no perfect way to determine how great a player will become, but player values are determined through WAR. So, based on their age-19 seasons:
| Name | Season | Fangraphs WAR | Baseball Reference WAR |
| George Davis | 1890 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Ty Cobb | 1906 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| Mel Ott | 1928 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Al Kaline | 1954 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Tony Conigliaro | 1964 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Ken Griffey, Jr. | 1989 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Bryce Harper | 2012 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
If WAR is truly the greatest way to explain overall player values, then Harper had the best season of any 19-year-old in the history of baseball, and if the careers of any of the players named along with him in this article are an sign of where he may end up, then Bryce Harper is well on his way to becoming one of the greatest players in the history of MLB.
Domination Versus Potential: The Story of the Converted Reliever
Aroldis Chapman has impressed many this spring with his 2.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 8 innings, as he continues to be stretched out for the purpose of becoming a starting pitcher. Or is he? Who really knows at this point, the Cincinnati Reds certainly don’t have any idea what they are doing. Certainly, prior to giving three-years and $21 million to Jonathan Broxton to become their closer this winter, they should have had an idea of where they were going to put “The Cuban Missile”, the rotation or the bullpen.
Chapman was absolutely dominant in 2012, posting a 15.3 K/9 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a 122:23 K:BB over 71.2 innings. A one-time starter for the Cuban National Team, the Reds have flirted with the idea of returning him to the rotation a couple of times, falling in love with his fastball and brilliance out of the bullpen, instead, while basking in the glory of having all of their starters healthy (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake) for the entire 2012 season.
With those same five guys back for the 2013 season and Tony Cingrani and Daniel Corcino reaching the upper levels of the Cincinnati Reds minor league system, the Reds are still debating as to how to handle their flame-throwing lefty, with less than two weeks remaining before Opening Day at Great American Ballpark.
For the Cincinnati Reds, the potential that Aroldis Chapman has as a starter seems to be the enticing factor in the thoughts and decision-m aking of the upper management, while the dominance that he has shown as a relief pitcher is overlooked.
That way of thinking isn’t terrible, it has happened many times in recent seasons…
Daniel Bard went from a dominant Boston Red Sox relief arm (2.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 150:54 K:BB over 147.2 innings in 2010 and 2011, combined) to an afterthought in a devastatingly disappointing 2012 season for the Saux. Bard was moved to the rotation, where his potential was greater, getting 54 innings over 10 starts and posting a 5.33 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a 32:36 K:BB. After going to Triple-A Pawtucket to work on his release point, he posted an even worse 18.71 ERA, 3.23 WHIP and a 4:6 K:BB over just 4.1 innings. Needless to say, Bard won’t be starting any games for Boston in 2013, and he may not have a spot in a very deep Boston bullpen to start the season.
Neftali Feliz was one of the top relief pitchers in baseball from 2009 through 2011, posting a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 164:56 K:BB over 162.2 innings, while saving 74 games for the Texas Rangers. With those fantastic numbers, how great would he look pitching every fifth day, providing the Rangers with 200-plus innings instead of the 60 to 75 that he was giving as their closer? In 2012, Feliz went to the rotation and did pretty well. For whatever reason, he was brought out of the bullpen for one outing on April 25 against the New York Yankees, four days after tossing 119 pitches in a complete game loss to Detroit, and then the wheels came off. Not right away, though, as he did manage four starts with a 3.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP before being shut down due to Tommy John surgery, which he didn’t even undergo until August, which will cost him the entire 2013 season, as well. When he returns in 2014, the Rangers will have other starters coming up through their impressive minor league system, which may allow Feliz to move back to the bullpen, taking over the closer role for the aging Joe Nathan.
Joba Chamberlain…what might have been for the one-time dominant reliever for the New York Yankees. After coming up in 2007 and posting a 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 34:6 K:BB in just 24 innings in 2007, the Yankees moved the powerful right-hander from the bullpen to the rotation on June 3, 2008, before moving him back to the bullpen September 2, when he came back from a stint on the DL due to shoulder tendinitis. He was solid over 12 starts, posting a 2.76 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 65.1 innings with a 74:25 K:BB. After returning from his shoulder injury, though, Chamberlain posted a 2.38 ERA over 11.1 innings with a 14:3 K:BB. That didn’t stop the club from trying him in the rotation again in 2009, this time making 31 starts and amassing 157.1 innings while posting a pedestrian 4.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Chamberlain was moved back to the bullpen in 2010 and wasn’t nearly as dominant as his first go-round there, posting a 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 77:22 K:BB in 71.2 innings. However, since the start of 2011, it has all been downhill for the big righty. He had Tommy John surgery in June of 2011, he broke his ankle while recovering from that and missed most of the 2012 season, and now, heading into his contract walk year, Joba Chamberlain wants to start, but seems to be on the outside looking in to the Yankees rotation.
The reason that teams will want to move young, successful, dominant relief pitchers to their rotations lies in the results of those like Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox. After dominating out of the bullpen in 2010 and 2011 (a combined 2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 111:37 K:BB in 94.1 innings), the White Sox moved Sale to the rotation in 2012. He didn’t disappoint even the harshest observers, posting a 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 192:51 K:BB over 192 innings. The issue now is whether or not Sale’s elbow can handle the rotation, as jumped from 71 innings in 2011 to the whopping 192 in 2012, while missing a couple of starts with “shoulder fatigue” in late-July and early-August, and he was rail thin, standing 6’6″, 168 pounds last season. Chicago seems to have faith in him, though, as Robin Ventura named him the Opening Day starter and the team extended him for five-years, $32.5 million already this spring.
Some other converts from the bullpen to the rotation (or even flip-flopping during their careers) include: C.J. Wilson, Ryan Dempster, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe, Adam Wainwright, Pedro Martinez, Mark Buehrle, and Brett Myers. While some of those names aren’t very…attractive…they did have some success in the rotation during their careers and there are a couple of Hall of Fame pitchers there.
Craig Kimbrel (Photo credit: cmaybourne)
Potential is a scary thing in sports. It is why players get several opportunities before finally being shipped off to become Triple-A depth. It is why roster spots are wasted on Rule 5 draft picks. It is why teams go over slot recommendations to land their draft picks. It is why teams risk injuries to their superstars to see if they can get a little more out of them. You don’t see the Atlanta Braves trying to get more out of Craig Kimbrel, do you? Why should the Cincinnati Reds try to get more potential out of Aroldis Chapman when they know what they have: the second best reliever in baseball (next to Kimbrel), who is nearly a lock to close out the game when you have the lead in the 9th inning.
For every Chris Sale, there is a frayed elbow ligament and a Joba Chamberlain or Neftali Feliz story…and Chris Sale is no sure thing to repeat. Pete Schourek won 18 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 1995 at the age of 26, throwing 109 more innings than he did in the 1994 season, and he followed that up with elbow and shoulder injuries before being out of baseball at the age of 32.
Which do you prefer: Domination or Potential?
Related articles
- Chapman decision looms large for Reds’ rotation (mlb.mlb.com)
- Reds’ Chapman wants to close, not start games (tracking.si.com)
- Teams should go with youth in bullpens (espn.go.com)
What Are the Mariners Doing?
Courtesy: seattletimes.com
Last year, the Seattle Mariners finished 75-87, last place in the AL West, a spot that they have held for seven of the last ten years. What are the Mariners doing to build a contender?
Not much.
The club is loaded with pitching prospects, like Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, and James Paxton, and they have collected some fine offensive prospects, like Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin, and Brad Miller along the way. With Jesus Montero being added last season and the ascension of Dustin Ackley to the majors, you would think that the Mariners were building for a run in 2015.
However, that can’t be the case after the club has traded for Kendrys Morales and Mike Morse, both free agents after the 2013 season. While the club gave up John Jaso to get Morse and Jason Vargas to get Morales, the Mariners left themselves with some question marks.
With Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, and Blake Beaven penciled into the rotation, the club may have to rely on Hector Noesi, Hultzen, or Paxton in the rotation to start the year. Noesi was 2-12 with a 5.82 ERA for the M’s in 2012, Hultzen was just 1-4 with a 5.92 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts in 2012, and Paxton would be jumping to the majors from Double-A. While Vargas isn’t close to being considered an ace, the Mariners will have a tough time replacing the 217 innings and 3.85 ERA that he provided last year.
After trading Jaso to Oakland, the Mariners only have Jesus Montero at catcher. Montero, who turned 23 in November, caught in just 56 games in 2012, throwing out 17 percent of base runners and posting a -8 Rtot (runs below average that he was worth defensively). While his bat has great potential, Montero is not an everyday catcher at the major league level.
Add in the Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez signings to the trades that Seattle has made, and the club is loaded with mediocrity.
There are two examples of their everyday lineup that I have found:
C: Montero C: Montero
1B: Morse 1B: Smoak
2B: Ackley 2B: Ackley
3B: Seager 3B: Seager
SS: Ryan SS: Ryan
LF: Ibanez LF: Morse
CF: Gutierrez CF: Gutierrez
RF: Saunders RF: Saunders
DH: Morales DH: Morales
Example one is eliminating Justin Smoak from the equation. Smoak has over 1,200 at-bats and has a career slash of .223/.306/.377 line, but he is just 26 years old and he posted a .341/.426/.580 in September, showing a glimpse of what he can do when he is healthy, and he has battled a thumb issue for the last couple of seasons.
Example two eliminates Raul Ibanez from the lineup. Ibanez has had great success in Seattle, having played 10 of his 17 seasons with the Mariners, but at the age of 41, he may just be a situational talent.
The Mariners could really use a catcher. If the club was able to deal Smoak to Boston for Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Ryan Lavarnway, the Mariners could then move Montero to DH, Morales to first, and Morse can play left field. The Red Sox only have Mauro Gomez at first base right now, so the deal would make sense for both clubs, as the Sox have David Ross and whatever catcher they don’t trade to roster.
The M’s could also rush Mike Zunino, who was the top college player in last year’s MLB draft. Zunino could take over at catcher, allowing for the same moves with Morales and Morse as above, while the club could keep Smoak around in case of an injury. Zunino had 51 at-bats in Double-A last year, so he could use some more seasoning in the minors, but he could be a better option behind the plate than Montero already.
Regardless of the moves at catcher that the Mariners could make, the additions that the club has made have not been stellar.
Morse has a powerful bat but he has issues making contact, having posted a 223:52 K:BB while hitting 49 home runs over 928 at-bats over the last two seasons. Turning 31 years old in March, Morse has two seasons with a WAR over 1.0 (1.2 in 2010 and 3.1 in 2011), so one has to wonder if his 2011 season (with 31 home runs and a .910 OPS) was his peak.
Ibanez is not a player that a rebuilding team needs. His age and declining skills limit his potential.
Morales rebounded nicely after missing nearly two years due to injury, posting a .787 OPS. In 2009, Morales posted a .924 OPS and he had an .833 OPS in 2010 prior to his celebratory injury. Is the drop in production due to his injury, timing issues due to being away from the game, or pressing to hit at the levels that he did in 2009? Can he reach those numbers when he is playing half of his games in Seattle?
Add in the interest that the Mariners have in Justin Upton and the supposed offer (Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Stephen Pryor, and Charlie Furbush) that they made, and the team seemingly has no long-term or short-term direction. The Mariners pitching, as it stands, is questionable at best. If the team is rebuilding, why would they offer two of their top five prospects instead of cashing in on any of their veterans that have value, even Felix Hernandez?
While John Jaso and Jason Vargas aren’t superstars, you have to wonder if the club would have been better off with the two players still on their roster. While they wouldn’t have made many moves to improve upon their last place finish from 2012, the Mariners wouldn’t have question marks all over the field like they do right now.
How Can You Rebuild the Yankees?
Keith Olbermann reported on his MLBlog on October 17 that the New York Yankees and Miami Marlins are already discussing a deal involving Alex Rodriguez once the season is over. This is big news due to the struggles of Rodriguez during the postseason, 3-for-23 (.103) with 12 strikeouts, and that fact that the quickly aging veteran is due another $114 million over the next five seasons.
Alex Rodriguez is taking a lot of heat for his struggles, as if he is the only player currently struggling during the club’s rotten postseason. Mind you, Robinson Cano is 3-for-36 (.083) and Curtis Granderson is just 3-for-29 (.103) with 15 strikeouts, so what is the deal with the hatred for the game’s highest paid player? The Yankees have bigger issues, including, how are they going to rebuild the franchise if the potential trade of Alex Rodriguez actually does happen?
Courtesy: Wikipedia
Moving Alex Rodriguez would signify a possible change in philosophy. While the Yankees have spent many hundreds of millions in payroll over the last decade, could this be the end of “buying” the talent, all because of an apparent very quick regression in some of their talent?
The Yankees have some things to look at with their current roster:
- Ichiro Suzuki, Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, Mariano Rivera, Freddy Garcia, Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez, Eric Chavez, and David Aardsma are free agents after the 2012 season.
- Robinson Cano ($15 million or $2 million buyout), Curtis Granderson ($13 million or $2 million buyout), and Pedro Feliciano ($4.5 million with $0 buyout) have options for 2013, with Cano and Granderson nearly guaranteed to be picked up, if only to allow for a trade to get value in return for those players.
- Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Brett Gardner, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, and David Robertson are eligible for arbitration, so they will earn raises for the 2013 season.
- Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Clay Rapada, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Stewart, and Austin Romine are all pre-arbitration, so they could be renewed at or near the league minimum.
After that, the Yankees have some payroll concerns:
- Alex Rodriguez, as mentioned before, is owed $114 million over the next five years.
- C.C. Sabathia is due $119 million (counting his $25 million 2017 option) over the next five years.
- Mark Teixeria is going to make $90 million over the next four seasons.
- Derek Jeter will make $17 million in 2013 and either $8 million in 2014 or a $3 million buyout.
- Rafael Soriano is guaranteed $14 million in 2013.
The problem with trading Alex Rodriguez is that the Yankees would have to eat a huge portion of the $114 million that he is owed. Since 2007, A-Rod’s OPS has gone from 1.067 (his MVP season) to .965, .933, .847, .823, and finally .783 in 2012. At the age of 37 (turning 38 next July), why would anyone give anything of value for the declining future Hall of Famer?
Dealing Rodriguez to the Miami Marlins for Heath Bell and Logan Morrison would be a solid deal, even paying $50-70 million of his deal, so that the team gets more bullpen help and a potential replacement in an outfield corner with Swisher and Ichiro both headed to free agency. However, that deal probably would not sit well with fans.
Should the club let all of their free agents depart, will they go after Josh Hamilton in free agency? Could Hamilton’s previous off-the-field issues, which he still admits to battling, become a huge issue in the largest media market in the world?
Should the club trade Granderson and/or Cano on top of dealing Rodriguez, just to allow the franchise to make a fresh start, like the Boston Red Sox deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which included the contracts of Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez?
For what it is worth, dealing Alex Rodriguez would open up third base in one of the weakest years for free agent third base in recent memory, including: Miguel Cairo, Mark DeRosa, Alberto Gonzalez, Brandon Inge, Maicer Izturis, Jose Lopez, Scott Rolen, Drew Sutton, and, if their options aren’t picked up, Ty Wigginton and Kevin Youkilis.
Courtesy: NY Times
Would the club really go into the season with Eduardo Nunez at the hot corner? General Manager Brian Cashman would have to look in the mirror and commit to a potential rebuilding mode if that is the case.
While Alex Rodriguez has struggled and his value and stock has plummeted, the unfortunate facts are that the Yankees would be and will be better with him at third base in 2013 than they would be by making a trade. Unless the Bronx Bombers were able to trade Robinson Cano to Baltimore for Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado after trading Rodriguez, starting to make trades to change the structure of the team just does not make sense.
Cashman would have to make several trades involving star players and huge contracts, just to fill the several holes that would remain from the various deals. If you trade Rodriguez, he would need to trade for a third baseman. If he traded Cano, who would play second? If he traded Granderson, he could possibly get Hamilton, but what if the Red Sox or Rangers outbid him?
You can’t rebuild the New York Yankees. Brian Cashman is in a situation where he needs to win, in a market and a fan base that wants to win – see the attendance in the ALCS. The club will rebuild by reloading, like they have done, through free agency. They will acquire a top-tier or solid starting pitcher and a solid outfielder, and they will be right back where they were. They will probably have the veterans mentioned in potential deals, as well, because it is not worth the potential hassle of dealing the contracts and taking so much less in value, just to make a change.
What Makes an MVP – The 2012 AL MVP
What is it that makes you the Most Valuable Player to your league? Is it where you help your team finish? Is it how much better you were than a replacement level player, such as the WAR statistic? Is it all about your overall numbers?
Courtesy: NBC Sports
It had been 45 years since Boston Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastrzemski won the last Triple Crown in Major League Baseball before Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera accomplished the feat in 2012. With 14 winners of the Triple Crown in the modern era (since 1900), maybe winning the Triple Crown is not as impossible as the 45 years have seemed to make it, but it is still an impressive feat.
Ted Williams was the last Triple Crown winner, his 1947 season, to not win the MVP in his dynamic season. He lost out to Joe DiMaggio, whose 4.5 WAR was drastically less than Williams’ 9.6 that season; however, DiMaggio and the Yankees won the World Series, defeating the Brooklyn Dodgers in seven games that season, while Williams and the Red Sox finished 14 games back of the Bronx Bombers.
If WAR is important in evaluating talent and perfomance, should Williams have won the award in 1947, even while playing on a team that did not perform as well as DiMaggio’s? If the Triple Crown is rare, shouldn’t that have given Williams the boost he needed for the votes? It was rare in those days, as well, even though Williams had won the Triple Crown in 1942 without winning the MVP, as well, losing out to New York Yankees second baseman Joe Gordon, while outperforming him in WAR 10.2 to 7.8 in that season.
WAR meant nothing then, but neither did winning the Triple Crown. So, what is going to happen when voters turn to statistical analysis and sabermetrics to determine who was the MVP of the American League in 2012? While sabermetrics was not around during the days of Ted Williams being overlooked, the fact that the Triple Crown meant little to voters is not a good sign for Miguel Cabrera.
With an emphasis on WAR for some voters, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout will steal a lot of votes from Cabrera. Trout led the whole league in WAR, running away with the lead with a 10.4 WAR in 2012. Miguel Cabrera, even with his Triple Crown season, totaled a 7.2 WAR, 8th in MLB and 3rd in the AL.
Trout deserves the attention, though. He joined the Angels on April 28 and the team went 82-59 (.582) with him on their roster, and just 7-14 before he arrived. Had the club not sent him down to Triple-A, the Angels may not have finished five games out in the AL West and four games out of the Wild Card. While he already showed that he is valuable with his Wins Above Replacement stat, it is scary to think that he could only get better, having just turned 21 years old on August 7.
The issue that Miguel Cabrera runs into, even with his team making the playoffs and winning the Triple Crown, is that the last Triple Crown winner, Yastzremski, had a 12.1 WAR, best in the AL and better than Brooks Robinson and his 8.6 WAR in 2nd place in the AL.
Because of how rare the feat is, Miguel Cabrera should win the American League MVP. While his defense was an issue at times (Baseball Reference gave him a defensive WAR of -0.2), he dominated offensively, leading the Tigers to a comeback over the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central to earn a playoff spot. Without Cabrera, there is no way that Detroit would be in the playoffs. Trout proved his worth, but he will be at home until spring training after finishing game 162 on Wednesday.
The Red Sox and Dodgers Blockbuster Deal
Courtesy: USA Today
According the various outlets, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers will announce the completion of a gigantic nine-player deal on Saturday with cash and millions upon millions of dollars of future salaries heading west, as the Dodgers look to solidify their roster for the playoffs with new ownership letting the world know that they will do whatever it takes, and spend whatever they have to, to bring a championship to Los Angeles.
According to the reports, this is the deal:
Dodgers receive: (with remaining contracts after the 2012 season)
Adrian Gonzalez: six-years, $127 million
Carl Crawford: five-years, $102.5 million
Josh Beckett: two-years, $31.5 million
Nick Punto: one-year, $1.5 million
$12 million in cash for salary assistance
Red Sox receive:
Rubby De La Rosa
Allen Webster
Jerry Sands
Ivan DeJesus
James Loney
So, who is the winner here? I have to say that both teams are winners, and this is why:
Boston just rid themselves of financially crippling contracts. Adrian Gonzalez was a bargain when compared to the Joey Votto and Albert Pujols contracts in the last 12 months; however, the ability to get rid of Carl Crawford’s terrible contract makes dealing Gonzalez a success. Crawford has made over $34 million since arriving in Boston in 2011, playing in 161-games and hitting .260/.292/.419, hardly the player that he was in Tampa. Josh Beckett had an excellent season in 2011, posting a 2.89 ERA over 30 starts, while compiling a 13-7 record. Since September 21, 2011, however, Beckett is 5-13 with a 5.50 ERA over 23 starts, and he was a part of the chicken and beer collapse of the Red Sox clubhouse. His conditioning, attitude and performance are all questionable parts of his existence, so to rid this contract is huge for Boston. The ability to change the clubhouse by eliminating attitude problems and opening up the future financial abilities of the franchise for new free agent talents, like Josh Hamilton. The thing to remember here, though, is that the Red Sox are getting some excellent talent here. Webster and De La Rosa are excellent pitching prospects, and Jerry Sands has proven himself in the minors while struggling in his auditions in the bigs. Loney will be a free agent after the 2012 season, so he is just a body for the time being.
Los Angeles gets the contracts, but they also get the talent. Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of the order with Matt Kemp is absolutely scary. Carl Crawford, while he won’t play in 2012 and he has been injured for most of the last two seasons, has still posted 39 doubles, nine triples, 14 home runs, 75 RBI and 23 steals in 161 games for the Red Sox, which is one season worth of at bats. Josh Beckett had a 3.46 ERA in his 106 games with the Marlins, and now he returns to the National League, in a weaker division, where pitching parks like Dodger Stadium, PETCO and AT&T Park will be his everyday environments. While the Dodgers take on a couple of bad contracts, they also have talent and abilities which may have just needed a change of scenery.
This trade could be the biggest blockbuster in the history of baseball. The names and money that is being dealt by Boston to Los Angeles is absolutely unfathomable. If this deal was done in your fantasy baseball league right now, it would be vetoed. This is a win for both teams because of the salary dump and the talent involved for both teams.
