Results tagged ‘ Adam Wainwright ’
Domination Versus Potential: The Story of the Converted Reliever
Aroldis Chapman has impressed many this spring with his 2.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 8 innings, as he continues to be stretched out for the purpose of becoming a starting pitcher. Or is he? Who really knows at this point, the Cincinnati Reds certainly don’t have any idea what they are doing. Certainly, prior to giving three-years and $21 million to Jonathan Broxton to become their closer this winter, they should have had an idea of where they were going to put “The Cuban Missile”, the rotation or the bullpen.
Chapman was absolutely dominant in 2012, posting a 15.3 K/9 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a 122:23 K:BB over 71.2 innings. A one-time starter for the Cuban National Team, the Reds have flirted with the idea of returning him to the rotation a couple of times, falling in love with his fastball and brilliance out of the bullpen, instead, while basking in the glory of having all of their starters healthy (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake) for the entire 2012 season.
With those same five guys back for the 2013 season and Tony Cingrani and Daniel Corcino reaching the upper levels of the Cincinnati Reds minor league system, the Reds are still debating as to how to handle their flame-throwing lefty, with less than two weeks remaining before Opening Day at Great American Ballpark.
For the Cincinnati Reds, the potential that Aroldis Chapman has as a starter seems to be the enticing factor in the thoughts and decision-m aking of the upper management, while the dominance that he has shown as a relief pitcher is overlooked.
That way of thinking isn’t terrible, it has happened many times in recent seasons…
Daniel Bard went from a dominant Boston Red Sox relief arm (2.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 150:54 K:BB over 147.2 innings in 2010 and 2011, combined) to an afterthought in a devastatingly disappointing 2012 season for the Saux. Bard was moved to the rotation, where his potential was greater, getting 54 innings over 10 starts and posting a 5.33 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a 32:36 K:BB. After going to Triple-A Pawtucket to work on his release point, he posted an even worse 18.71 ERA, 3.23 WHIP and a 4:6 K:BB over just 4.1 innings. Needless to say, Bard won’t be starting any games for Boston in 2013, and he may not have a spot in a very deep Boston bullpen to start the season.
Neftali Feliz was one of the top relief pitchers in baseball from 2009 through 2011, posting a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 164:56 K:BB over 162.2 innings, while saving 74 games for the Texas Rangers. With those fantastic numbers, how great would he look pitching every fifth day, providing the Rangers with 200-plus innings instead of the 60 to 75 that he was giving as their closer? In 2012, Feliz went to the rotation and did pretty well. For whatever reason, he was brought out of the bullpen for one outing on April 25 against the New York Yankees, four days after tossing 119 pitches in a complete game loss to Detroit, and then the wheels came off. Not right away, though, as he did manage four starts with a 3.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP before being shut down due to Tommy John surgery, which he didn’t even undergo until August, which will cost him the entire 2013 season, as well. When he returns in 2014, the Rangers will have other starters coming up through their impressive minor league system, which may allow Feliz to move back to the bullpen, taking over the closer role for the aging Joe Nathan.
Joba Chamberlain…what might have been for the one-time dominant reliever for the New York Yankees. After coming up in 2007 and posting a 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 34:6 K:BB in just 24 innings in 2007, the Yankees moved the powerful right-hander from the bullpen to the rotation on June 3, 2008, before moving him back to the bullpen September 2, when he came back from a stint on the DL due to shoulder tendinitis. He was solid over 12 starts, posting a 2.76 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 65.1 innings with a 74:25 K:BB. After returning from his shoulder injury, though, Chamberlain posted a 2.38 ERA over 11.1 innings with a 14:3 K:BB. That didn’t stop the club from trying him in the rotation again in 2009, this time making 31 starts and amassing 157.1 innings while posting a pedestrian 4.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Chamberlain was moved back to the bullpen in 2010 and wasn’t nearly as dominant as his first go-round there, posting a 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 77:22 K:BB in 71.2 innings. However, since the start of 2011, it has all been downhill for the big righty. He had Tommy John surgery in June of 2011, he broke his ankle while recovering from that and missed most of the 2012 season, and now, heading into his contract walk year, Joba Chamberlain wants to start, but seems to be on the outside looking in to the Yankees rotation.
The reason that teams will want to move young, successful, dominant relief pitchers to their rotations lies in the results of those like Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox. After dominating out of the bullpen in 2010 and 2011 (a combined 2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 111:37 K:BB in 94.1 innings), the White Sox moved Sale to the rotation in 2012. He didn’t disappoint even the harshest observers, posting a 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 192:51 K:BB over 192 innings. The issue now is whether or not Sale’s elbow can handle the rotation, as jumped from 71 innings in 2011 to the whopping 192 in 2012, while missing a couple of starts with “shoulder fatigue” in late-July and early-August, and he was rail thin, standing 6’6″, 168 pounds last season. Chicago seems to have faith in him, though, as Robin Ventura named him the Opening Day starter and the team extended him for five-years, $32.5 million already this spring.
Some other converts from the bullpen to the rotation (or even flip-flopping during their careers) include: C.J. Wilson, Ryan Dempster, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe, Adam Wainwright, Pedro Martinez, Mark Buehrle, and Brett Myers. While some of those names aren’t very…attractive…they did have some success in the rotation during their careers and there are a couple of Hall of Fame pitchers there.
Craig Kimbrel (Photo credit: cmaybourne)
Potential is a scary thing in sports. It is why players get several opportunities before finally being shipped off to become Triple-A depth. It is why roster spots are wasted on Rule 5 draft picks. It is why teams go over slot recommendations to land their draft picks. It is why teams risk injuries to their superstars to see if they can get a little more out of them. You don’t see the Atlanta Braves trying to get more out of Craig Kimbrel, do you? Why should the Cincinnati Reds try to get more potential out of Aroldis Chapman when they know what they have: the second best reliever in baseball (next to Kimbrel), who is nearly a lock to close out the game when you have the lead in the 9th inning.
For every Chris Sale, there is a frayed elbow ligament and a Joba Chamberlain or Neftali Feliz story…and Chris Sale is no sure thing to repeat. Pete Schourek won 18 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 1995 at the age of 26, throwing 109 more innings than he did in the 1994 season, and he followed that up with elbow and shoulder injuries before being out of baseball at the age of 32.
Which do you prefer: Domination or Potential?
Related articles
- Chapman decision looms large for Reds’ rotation (mlb.mlb.com)
- Reds’ Chapman wants to close, not start games (tracking.si.com)
- Teams should go with youth in bullpens (espn.go.com)
2013 Nerdy Baseball Stat Projections: Pitchers
Baseball nerds are looking at all kinds of statistics that weren’t listed on the back of a baseball card when we were growing up. With the newer FIP, BABIP, and WAR statistics that have become a part of analysis of player abilities, it seems to be easier to project rebound candidates, potential breakouts, or potential flops based on these newer, sabermetric-based statistics.
FIP Winners and Losers for 2013
Fangraphs.com defined FIP as measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. FIP can be calculated with the following formula:
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. Fangraphs.com also provided the following table to show how the values should be interpreted:
| Rating | FIP |
|---|---|
| Excellent | 2.90 |
| Great | 3.25 |
| Above Average | 3.75 |
| Average | 4.00 |
| Below Average | 4.20 |
| Poor | 4.50 |
| Awful | 5.00 |
Pitchers to Target
Here are some pitchers who could have solid seasons based on an inflated ERA and solid FIP values:
Joe Blanton, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: Blanton was not good in 2012…at least on paper. At 10-13 with a 4.71 ERA over 191 innings, you’d think that he was one of the weaker pitchers in the National League. Not so. Blanton posted an FIP of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.26 last season, while walking just 1.60 batters per nine innings, his best rate since 2007 (1.57) when he was still with Oakland. For Blanton, his issues stem from the longball, as he gave up 29 last season and has a career HR/FB rate of 10.3 percent, which is close to the league average (roughly 10 percent), but that statistic has climbed to 13.9 percent in 2011 and 15.3 percent in 2012. The fact is, Angels Stadium of Anaheim ranked as the 4th lowest scoring park in baseball in 2012. Joe Blanton could have a huge year for the Angels. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton only help his cause.
Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Wainwright has had a very good career. As a starting pitcher, he has a 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 3.01 K/BB over 996 innings and 151 starts. In 2012, Wainwright’s ERA “ballooned” to 3.94, which was a pretty drastic increase considering that in 2010 (he missed 2011 due to TJ surgery) that number was 2.42, while it was 2.63 in 2009. The time on the shelf could have had something to do with it, but Wainwright’s FIP was 3.10 in 2012, 6th best in MLB. With Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse seemingly gone from the equation in 2013, the Cardinals really need Wainwright to rebound. Nerdy baseball statistics show that he is well on his way to do just that. The inflated .315 BABIP (career .293) may have played a role in the ERA inflation, as the 9.9 percent HR/FB (career 8.0), as well. Water under the bridge.
Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers: The rookie season that Darvish had seems to have gone completely unnoticed, thanks to the fishy outfielder for the Angels. 16 wins, 221 strikeouts over 191.1 innings, a 3.90 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP shows that Darvish was very good in his transition to MLB from Japan. While the ERA looks a bit exaggerated, it was just that. When looking at Darvish, look at the 10.4 K/9 and the 3.29 FIP for the 2012 season. His ability to finish off hitters was very impressive and, as long as he holds up better than Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideo Nomo physically, Darvish is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in MLB.
Pitchers to Avoid
Here are some pitchers who may have terrible seasons based on a negative correlation to their FIP and ERA:
Jason Vargas, LHP, Los Angeles Angels: While Vargas is moving from Seattle (No.1 pitcher’s park) to Los Angeles (No.4 pitcher’s park) with Joe Blanton, it is unlikely that he will have a season like he had for the Mariners in 2012. Vargas has managed ERAs the last three seasons of 3.78 in 2010, 4.25 in 2011, and 3.85 in 2012, while posting FIPs of 3.95 of 2010, 4.09 in 2011, and 4.69 last season. Somehow, Vargas managed to give up 35 home runs last season, 26 of them on the road, even while pitching in Safeco. So…can Angels Stadium hold as many balls and make him valuable, or is this the year that reality and statistics set in on Vargas? Even when he was posting an ERA of 3.96, a WHIP of 1.25, and winning 33 games over the last three seasons, it seemed to be with quite a bit of luck.
Clayton Richard, LHP, San Diego Padres: You have to love Petco Park, right? Richard should, as he managed to keep his ERA at 3.99 last season with an FIP of 4.62. Richard has kept himself somewhat useful in the world of fantasy baseball by posting a 3.88 ERA over the last three seasons and 520 innings for the Friars, even while posting a below average WHIP of 1.34 and going 33-32 over 84 starts. Richard may continue to keep his ERA, but with his HR/FB ballooning to 15 percent last season and the fences being moved in this season at Petco Park, is it going to last?
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Hellickson is either really good or a ticking time bomb. He doesn’t strike many out, as his 5.93 K/9 is 66th in baseball since the start of the 2011 season. His .242 BABIP is the lowest in baseball since the start of 2011, just in front of Jered Weaver (.246) and Justin Verlander (.255). Hellickson’s career ERA is a sexy 3.06 and his career WHIP is 1.19; however, his FIP in 2011 was 4.44 (when his ERA was 2.95) and 4.60 in 2012 (when his ERA was 3.10). He turns 26 in April and has just 402.1 innings pitched in his career, but can he really maintain the success that he has had in the ERA, WHIP, and BABIP categories if his FIP continues to inflate?
Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals: With Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, and Dan Haren in the rotation, do the Nationals really need to expect a lot from Detwiler in 2013? They probably shouldn’t. Detwiler has long had the stuff to be a solid starting pitcher and finally received an opportunity last year. The low to mid-90′s fastball would say that Detwiler has shutdown stuff, but his 5.7 K/9 as a starter in 2012 says otherwise. While he posted a 3.40 ERA in 2012 and an FIP of 4.04 (which is right around average), what is in store for the 27-year-old left-hander in 2013? The Nationals have already shown a short leash on Detwiler, pulling him from the rotation in late May of last year after nine starts, even after he posted a solid 3.88 ERA. Detwiler, like Hellickson, seems to have the stuff to continue posting solid peripheral statistics, in spite of a potentially alarmingly high FIP and an inability to miss bats.
GM for the Day: St. Louis Cardinals
It’s like having a date with the girl of your dreams and then she ditches you for Justin Bieber. I hate you Bieber…and I’m not a fan of the Cardinals, so this offseason has been kind of interesting. The whining birds will be without the greatest right-handed hitter of our generation, as Albert Pujols left for gobs of cash and the temperate climate that houses the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-Orange County-California-USA-Planet Earth-Milky Way Galaxy. What’s left and what can the defending champions do? Lets take a look-see at their 25-man roster:
2 Catchers: Yadier Molina and Tony Cruz
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Daniel Descalso
3B: David Freese
SS: Rafael Furcal
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Jon Jay
RF: Allen Craig
Bench: Erik Komatsu (OF – Rule 5 pick), Skip Schumaker (INF/OF), Tyler Green (INF), Shane Robinson (OF)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Adam Wainwright
Relief Pitchers: Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn, Marc Rzepczynski, Mitchell Boggs, Eduardo Sanchez and Maikel Cleto
The Cardinals need to replace Albert Pujols. You can’t but they have to try. Thinking that David Freese is going to be what he was in the playoffs is stupid. He hit .397 in the postseason, including .545 in the NLCS, hitting five homers and collecting 21 RBI in 18 games. Billy Hatcher once hit .750 in a World Series. He went on to negative WAR (Wins Against Replacement) in five of his last six seasons. They are rumored to be going after Carlos Beltran. They can plug him into right and have Berkman move to first, which is what they would do if they didn’t sign Beltran and they put Allen Craig in right full-time. Craig posted a .917 OPS in 75 games last year, so he deserves a look, but it’s possible the Cardinals need to show signs of life in Free Agency to please “the best fans in baseball.” They’d probably be better off without signing an aging and declining Beltran, isn’t that why they didn’t go to the extent of the Angels on Pujols? Daniel Descalso has an amazing arm and he’ll waste it at second. He always posted solid numbers in the Minors, but if he falters, he’ll share the gig with Schumaker, who is now a super-utility player. The Cards sured up the infield by signing Rafael Furcal to a two-year deal.
With Adam Wainwright coming back from Tommy John, the Cardinals seem very upbeat about their rotation. They are dangling Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse in deals, but neither of them really hold a lot of value. They’ll probably hang on to both veterans and use Shelby Miller, super prospect, as a tool when one of them falter, or if Wainwright hits an innings cap coming off of surgery.
The Cardinals lost a huge piece, more valuable to them than possibly even Pujols when the Astros stole Jeff Luhnow, the Cards Vice President of Scouting and Player Development. He created a system that has Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins, Kolten Wong and Oscar Taveras at the top of the list, all potential stars. They’ll be spending the next few years rebuilding the franchise and hoping to stay relevent in a changing division, as the Reds deal with payroll issues due to Votto’s upcoming salary increase and the Brewers lose Prince Fielder, who could end up a Cub!
This is what I would do as the Cardinals GM. The infield is set. You have to work on an extension for Yadier Molina. He will be a Free Agent after 2012 and will be 29 this year. His defensive value isn’t easy to explain but the bat makes him worth a raise and long-term investment. I still can’t understand the Rasmus deal long-term for this team, as his attitude and inability to follow instruction couldn’t have been worth giving up on the talent, could it? They are trusting Jon Jay in center and he is a reasonable option. He has a .784 OPS vs. RHP and .733 OPS vs. LHP, so he doesn’t necessarily need to platoon at this point, but it could change. Holliday is in left due to the crazy contract and he is pretty good, too. I would give Craig a chance if I knew he was healthy, but he isn’t. He is coming off of surgery to his knee and probably won’t be ready until May. Due to that issue, the Cardinals need to gamble on Beltran or another Free Agent capable of playing right. Maybe a reunion with Ryan Ludwick, who posted some amazing stats (.857 OPS) over his earlier three-year stay in St. Louis, would be a solid idea as a stopgap? It wouldn’t be an absurd contract, you wouldn’t have to deal with Scott Boras and you wouldn’t have to invest in a player who has played in just 59% of his team games in the last three seasons. I would sign Ludwick on the cheap, make him a 4th outfielder off the bat, put Berkman in right for a couple of months while Craig works his way back, and give first base to Matt Adams. Adams is 23-years-old and he hit .300/.357/.566 last year, ripping 23 2B, 32 HR and 101 RBI in Double-A. He’s a left-handed bat, which can fit in nicely with Holliday (right) and Berkman (switch) in the middle of the order. If he falters, move him back to Triple-A and put Berkman at first and Craig/Ludwick in right. See what you have. The future in St. Louis needs to happen now.
The rotation is set, you’re not getting anything for the vets and the bullpen is nice. See what Motte can do in the closer role and quit the closer-by-commitee bullcrap that LaRussa has been pulling since he managed the White Sox.
The 25-man roster would be:
2 Catchers: Yadier Molina and Tony Cruz
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Daniel Descalso
3B: David Freese
SS: Rafael Furcal
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Jon Jay
RF: Lance Berkman
Bench: Skip Schumaker (INF/OF), Allen Craig (INF/OF), Ryan Ludwick (LF/RF), Tyler Green (2B/SS)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook
Relief Pitchers: Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn, Marc Rzepczynski, Mitchell Boggs, Eduardo Sanchez and Maikel Cleto
2012 MLB Vesting Options
The following players had options for 2012. Lets see where they stand…
Bobby Abreu - $9 million option vested at 433 plate appearances
Abreu has made 532 appearances. It would have been interesting to see what the Angels could have done next season with Mike Trout somewhere in the outfield, but Vernon Wells, Abreu (who has played 28 games in the outfield), and Torii Hunter (who will be a Free Agent after 2012) will be joined by Peter Bourjos as Angels in the outfield next season.
Adam Wainwright - $9 million in 2012 (if he is top 5 in Cy Young for 2010) and $12 million in 2013 if he doesn’t end 2011 on the Disabled List
Well, Wainwright will be an interesting case. His 2013 option won’t automatically vest due to his Tommy John surgery and recovery, but his 2012 option vested when he was 2nd in the National League Cy Young voting in 2010. Wainwright underwent surgery in February and will be ready for Spring Training. He should have his first bullpen session in the next week. If he comes back as half the pitcher he was before the injury, he’ll be a bargain…when compared to A.J. Burnett.
Aramis Ramirez - $11 million option vests if he wins the MVP in the National League or League Championship Series, OR if he is traded.
Ramirez was close to getting traded at the deadline until he went schizophrenic about his full no-trade clause and flip-flopped like a politician on whether he was willing to leave or force his stay in Chicago. Someone should be able to get the soon-to-be 34-year-old for close to that this offseason. With the weak third base market, he could force an extra year or two on his contract.
Rafael Furcal - $12 million option vests with 600 plate appearances
Furcal wasn’t EVER going to get to 600 plate appearances. He’s injured about as much as Jose Reyes the last couple of seasons. He’s had 726 plate appearances since the beginning of 2010. He “wants” to stay in St. Louis, apparently, but he’ll probably “want” the most money he can get in his last chance for a multi-year deal.
Jon Garland - $8 million option vests with 190 innings pitched.
This looked like a great deal for Garland, who hadn’t thrown fewer than 191 1/3 innings since he became a full-time starter in 2002. All of those innings caught up to him, though, as he needed shoulder surgery in July. He’ll be on the shelf for nearly six months, so another incentive laden contract will be in the 32-year-old’s future this offseason.
Francisco Rodriguez - $17.5 million option vests with 55 games finished.
Ron Roenicke said that he was going to give K-Rod some closing opportunities when the deal with the Mets went down. He has finished one game since the trade. I guess Doug Melvin and Brewers ownership let him know how things were going to go. There was no way in God’s green Earth that the Brewers were going to take a chance like that and pay a “closer” $17.5 million when they have Prince Fielder on the way out the door this winter. Rodriguez has finished 35 games this season and won’t come much closer to that vesting option.
Joakim Soria - $6 million option vests with 55 appearances.
“The Mexicutioner” (quite possibly the coolest nickname EVER) has already made 58 appearances, allowing the Royals to have another year of an elite closer at a discount price. Soria has had a down year when compared to his first four seasons, but his value is still evident. He has an $8 million team option for 2013 and $8.75 million in 2014, each with $750,000 buyouts. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to be dealt by the deadline next year, especially if Aaron Crow stays in the bullpen and becomes closer-worthy.
