December 2012
2012 in review: Stats From the Blog
The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2012 annual report for this blog.
Here’s an excerpt:
19,000 people fit into the new Barclays Center to see Jay-Z perform. This blog was viewed about 63,000 times in 2012. If it were a concert at the Barclays Center, it would take about 3 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.
Merry Christmas!!!
From the Book of Luke:
1
26 In the sixth month the angel Gabriel was sent from God to a city of Galilee named Nazareth, 27 to a virgin betrothed[b] to a man whose name was Joseph, of the house of David. And the virgin’s name was Mary. 28 And he came to her and said, “Greetings, O favored one, the Lord is with you!”[c] 29 But she was greatly troubled at the saying, and tried to discern what sort of greeting this might be. 30 And the angel said to her, “Do not be afraid, Mary, for you have found favor with God. 31 And behold, you will conceive in your womb and bear a son, and you shall call his name Jesus. 32 He will be great and will be called the Son of the Most High. And the Lord God will give to him the throne of his father David, 33 and he will reign over the house of Jacob forever, and of his kingdom there will be no end.”
34 And Mary said to the angel, “How will this be, since I am a virgin?”[d]
35 And the angel answered her, “The Holy Spirit will come upon you, and the power of the Most High will overshadow you; therefore the child to be born[e] will be called holy—the Son of God. 36 And behold, your relative Elizabeth in her old age has also conceived a son, and this is the sixth month with her who was called barren. 37 For nothing will be impossible with God.” 38 And Mary said, “Behold, I am the servant[f] of the Lord; let it be to me according to your word.” And the angel departed from her.
39 In those days Mary arose and went with haste into the hill country, to a town in Judah, 40 and she entered the house of Zechariah and greeted Elizabeth. 41 And when Elizabeth heard the greeting of Mary, the baby leaped in her womb. And Elizabeth was filled with the Holy Spirit, 42 and she exclaimed with a loud cry, “Blessed are you among women, and blessed is the fruit of your womb! 43 And why is this granted to me that the mother of my Lord should come to me? 44 For behold, when the sound of your greeting came to my ears, the baby in my womb leaped for joy. 45 And blessed is she who believed that there would be[g] a fulfillment of what was spoken to her from the Lord.”
46 And Mary said,
“My soul magnifies the Lord, 47 and my spirit rejoices in God my Savior, 48 for he has looked on the humble estate of his servant. For behold, from now on all generations will call me blessed; 49 for he who is mighty has done great things for me, and holy is his name. 50 And his mercy is for those who fear him from generation to generation. 51 He has shown strength with his arm; he has scattered the proud in the thoughts of their hearts; 52 he has brought down the mighty from their thrones and exalted those of humble estate; 53 he has filled the hungry with good things, and the rich he has sent away empty. 54 He has helped his servant Israel, in remembrance of his mercy, 55 as he spoke to our fathers, to Abraham and to his offspring forever.”
56 And Mary remained with her about three months and returned to her home.
2
In those days a decree went out from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be registered. 2 This was the first registration when[a] Quirinius was governor of Syria. 3 And all went to be registered, each to his own town. 4 And Joseph also went up from Galilee, from the town of Nazareth, to Judea, to the city of David, which is called Bethlehem, because he was of the house and lineage of David, 5 to be registered with Mary, his betrothed,[b] who was with child. 6 And while they were there, the time came for her to give birth. 7 And she gave birth to her firstborn son and wrapped him in swaddling cloths and laid him in a manger, because there was no place for them in the inn.
8 And in the same region there were shepherds out in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. 9 And an angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were filled with great fear. 10 And the angel said to them, “Fear not, for behold, I bring you good news of great joy that will be for all the people. 11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. 12 And this will be a sign for you: you will find a baby wrapped in swaddling cloths and lying in a manger.” 13 And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God and saying,
14 “Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace among those with whom he is pleased!”[c]
15 When the angels went away from them into heaven, the shepherds said to one another, “Let us go over to Bethlehem and see this thing that has happened, which the Lord has made known to us.” 16 And they went with haste and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby lying in a manger. 17 And when they saw it, they made known the saying that had been told them concerning this child. 18 And all who heard it wondered at what the shepherds told them. 19 But Mary treasured up all these things, pondering them in her heart. 20 And the shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all they had heard and seen, as it had been told them.
21 And at the end of eight days, when he was circumcised, he was called Jesus, the name given by the angel before he was conceived in the womb.
Guest Article: The Great DH Debate
I’m going to introduce myself real quick. My name is Jackson Johnson and I am currently a junior at Jacksonville State University where I am majoring in Economics. I have been an avid baseball fan since I can remember and, I am a frequent reader of not only this blog but also Fangraphs along with many others. Please visit my site, Baseball in the Deep South, to read more about the Atlanta Braves and my opinions on America’s past time.
Besides debating whether the alleged use of steroids should keep Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa out of the Hall of Fame, the next great issue argued among baseball fans is the Designated Hitter. I have had this dispute many a times, not only with my friends, but also with random people at the ballpark and in the bar. I still have yet to meet someone who is truly on the fence when it comes to the topic. Every baseball fan is either for or against it and feels the other position is bad for baseball. The steroids debate is in full swing, as it is Hall of Fame voting season, so I thought it would be fun to stir up another heated baseball topic. I am going to look at the main points in each side’s argument more in depth and wrap it up by telling you where I stand on the matter.
Let’s start with the traditionalists first
Against the DH
- It’s not traditional baseball.
Ah, the oldest argument in the book. No, I’m being serious, it actually is. Rule 1.01 of baseball states, and I quote:
“Baseball is a game between two teams of nine players each, under direction of a manager, played on an enclosed field in accordance with these rules, under jurisdiction of one or more umpires.”
By this rule, the very first one you encounter when you crack open the baseball rulebook, the American League does not play real baseball. They play pseudo-baseball by adding a tenth man in the Designated Hitter. A pitcher is on the field just like the shortstop, right fielder, first baseman etc. and they should bat just like those players would.
2. Having the DH makes more batters get plunked in the American League versus the National League
In the first chapter of his book, The Baseball Economist, J.C. Bradbury shows how true that statement is due to the simple economic concept of opportunity cost.
There is an unwritten rule in baseball. If you plunk one of our players, then our team will subsequently plunk your pitcher the next time he is at bat as retaliation for pitching too high or inside on our guy. Thus, if a pitcher in the National League wants to plunk a batter or pitch inside to him, he is faced with weighing the cost of getting hit himself when he is due up in the batting order. You take the bat out of the pitcher’s hand, and he might be more likely to throw an inside pitch or some “chin music” as the cost of hitting a batter has just decreased.
Last year, a National League team averaged 48 hit batters in a season, where an American League team average 53 hit batters in a season.
3. It adds an extra element of strategy to the game
Having the pitcher bat gives each team’s manager more to think about and more to plan around.
Imagine, if you will, you are the manager of a national league team, any team. You are playing a game against your division rival and the game is currently tied 1-1, bottom of the sixth. You have runners on second and third with two outs. The game has obviously been a pitching duel so far, so this is your prime opportunity to jump ahead and possibly a turning point in the game. However, your pitcher is due up and you can’t decide what to do with him. He has been quite impressive thus far, only giving up one run through six innings and he could pitch one more solid inning then you will most likely have to turn to your bullpen. This is a great chance to score, and once you pinch-hit for him, he will no longer be allowed to come back into the game. If you don’t pinch hit for him then you most likely miss a great scoring opportunity and what might be a chance to win the game. What do you do?
As you can see, this is scenario and many like it are what National League managers are faced with each week, if not each game. Having the pitcher bat adds strategy and this way brings the manager more into the game.
For the DH
- Keeps pitchers from getting hurt
Pitchers play an integral role in the game. They have the most important job on any team, besides maybe the catcher. Pitchers will always be the weakest hitters on a team because they spend the majority of their time working on their mechanics or strength and conditioning. They get the least amount of time in the batting cage of any player on the team so it will not bode well if we send someone to the plate who won’t know what he is doing. All this creates is an opportunity for one of our best players to get hurt which will severely hinder our team. Having the pitcher bat is not only an automatic out, but also a liability for any team trying to keep their postseason hopes alive.
2. Attracts more fans-offense sells
You want to talk about simple economics, huh? How about this one: supply and demand. No one likes a pitchers duel, except diehard baseball fans. The regular, common fan likes to see offense, and lots of it.
Attendance has been on the rise the last couple of years, and if you take away the feeble-hitting pitcher and replace him with a masher, then offense will increase and so will ticket sales will go up even more. Teams will in turn generate more revenue, thus increasing payroll and the game will be more even. Give the people what they demand. No one likes seeing the pitcher make an out every time he steps up to the plate; it’s boring and certainly won’t sell seats. People flock to NBA and NFL games because they are offense driven. The DH will give baseball a chance to take a big chunk of our their respective fan bases.
Last year the AL had a slash line of .255/.320/.411 and an OPS of .731, the NL amassed a line of .254/.318/.400 with a .718 OPS. Also, the AL hit 179 homers and drove in 688 runs while the NL swatted 159 homers and only drove in 648 runs. If the NL could bring in more offense and make their stats closer to the AL’s, there is not doubt they would also see an increase in attendance and revenue.
3. Creates more jobs for players
Here’s another economic concept that can be applied to the game of baseball.
Why do you think that Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols decided to jump leagues and sign with an AL team before the 2012 season? Also, why do you think Josh Hamilton was more inclined to stay in the American League this offseason? Sure, the money played a factor in it, but so did having the DH. They know they’re not superman. In a few years, their bodies and reflexes will wear down and they won’t be able to play in the field every day like they are used to. Having the DH creates more jobs and keeps players’ careers alive longer. A player may not be able to man the hot corner like he used to, but if he can make contact and generate power then he will be a valuable asset to his team as a DH every couple of games. It gives teams more options and lineup choices to help them win.
As you can see, both sides make good points. Before I state what side I am on, I am going to say one more thing. I believe that having the DH in only one league is quite bad for the game. Baseball needs to do away with having one league DH and the other league non-DH and make it equal across the board. A rift is created between the two leagues and makes the difference between them noticeable. The point of the DH creating jobs is exactly why this rift exists in the first place. If you look at the Pujols and Fielder example, then you see more big time free agents will be more inclined to go to the American League as they will be presented with being able to DH every couple of days instead of having to play in the field every day in order to hit. Having the DH in only one league creates an unlevel playing field.
With that being said, I do not like the DH. Citing the arguments above, I believe it is not real, traditional baseball, and just like any other player on the diamond, the pitcher should be required to have a turn in the batting order whenever his team is at bat. To illustrate my point, I present to you, the case of Alex Gonzalez.
Many of you know Alex Gonzalez. He not only is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, but was also on the 2003 Marlins World Series team, the one that participated in the infamous Steve Bartman game. He owes a puny .247/.292/.399 slash line accompanied with a career 4.8 BB% and a 18.7 K%. Despite these pitiful offensive numbers, he has managed to find work over the years, as he is known for having a slick-fielding glove. Now imagine this: what if in 2011, when he played for my beloved Atlanta Braves, upon taking the lineup card out to the umpire, Fredi Gonzalez said:
You know what? Gonzalez is a great defender and we love having him in the field, he does a lot for our team out there, but his bat isn’t worth anything, so we’re just going to have Eric Hinske bat for him when his turn in the lineup comes.
Is that not the most ridiculous thing you’ve ever heard/read? To me, that is what happens with the designated hitter. Yes, the pitcher plays a valuable role on the team, if not the most important, but he still deserves to bat just like any other player. This is because, just like any other player, he is in the field. You want to have another player come hit for your pitcher? That’s fine, but now your pitcher will not be allowed to return to the game.
As an economics major, I do realize the importance of supply and demand and, I do realized more fans want to see offense and not a pitcher’s duel. I know that while attendance has jumped the last two seasons, baseball still needs to find a way to boost ticket sales as the economy is still stagnant. Yes, I do see the writing on the wall. Major League Baseball does want to use the DH in both leagues, as shown by the Astros moving to the American League next year, evening both leagues out at 15 teams apiece. Yes, I do realize I am fighting a losing battle
However, I believe it is somewhat contradictory, as baseball has lagged behind in the field of expanded replay because the traditional way of umpires and no replay is how they’ve always done things, yet, they chose the less traditional route when it came to the DH.
I would like to thank Mr. Vogel for this writing opportunity. Feel free to continue the debate in the comments, and if you enjoyed this article then be sure to check out more of my writing at Baseball in the Deep South, an Atlanta Braves Blog. I wish you and your family a very safe and Merry Christmas.
The Legend of Bo Jackson: What Might Have Been…
If you grew up in the late 1980′s, you know that there should be a pagan holiday to celebrate Bo Jackson as the God of Tecmo Bowl. If you thought that the 4.12 40-yard dash that he ran at the 1986 NFL Combine was crazy or inaccurate, the 4.18 that he ran within a week shows the genetic freakness of the two-sport star.
In football, not just video games, Bo Jackson was very special, sharing carries in the Raiders backfield with Marcus Allen. Jackson averaged 5.4 yards per carry over his career, scoring 16 touchdowns in just 38 games over his four-year career, while rushing for 2,782 yards on 515 carries. He just couldn’t stay healthy, with a hip injury ultimately ruining both his football and baseball career, thanks a lot Kevin Walker.
On the diamond, Bo Jackson was fun to watch. His football speed transitioned well to baseball when he was stealing bases, but, surprisingly, he was below average defensively, compiling a -4.7 dWAR over his eight-year baseball career, which wasn’t necessarily the result of his hip issues, either, as his lone positive dWAR came in 1993 (0.1) with the Chicago White Sox.
From 1987 to 1990, Bo Jackson was at his best, ripping 107 home runs, 64 doubles, 13 triples, and stealing 78 bases. Those are solid totals over four seasons, but his .252/.308/.487 line and striking out in 34.4 percent of his at-bats really limited his value, as Jackson put up a total WAR of 8.5 over those four seasons. To put that into perspective, Wade Boggs had a 30.8 WAR, Rickey Henderson had a 30.5 WAR, Alan Trammell had a 23.4 WAR, and Steve Sax had a 9.2 WAR.
So, while baseball wasn’t built upon nerdy statistics during that era, you have two Hall of Fame players (Boggs and Henderson), one player who should be in the Hall of Fame (Trammell), and a guy who many will overlook as a nobody (Sax), who outperformed Jackson tremendously, in most cases from 1987 through 1990.
So, how good could Jackson have become?
Jackson was still in his prime in 1991 when he was injured in the NFL playoffs against Cincinnti, just 28 years old. Jackson came back late in the 1991 season with the Chicago White Sox before missing all of the 1992 season after having his hip replaced.
Had the injury never have happened and we manipulate statistics, we are going to make a prediction about Bo Jackson’s baseball career…
Using the gains that he showed with his plate discipline in 1990 (9.5 percent walk rate and a 28.1 percent strikeout rate, a 2.6 percent increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts from 1989, his lone All-Star season), as well as his power gains over this time (AB/HR, IF/FB, HR %) Jackson would have continued on those gains for roughly four years before beginning his decline in 1995 at the age of 32. From that point on, we will decrease his walk rate and increase his strikeout rate by 3-percent each season for four seasons, while his power numbers decreases by 10-percent each season, and his batting average by 5-percent. This will allow Jackson to retire after his age-36 season in 1999 with dignity. Using a 162-game season average of 613 plate appearances, you’ll see Bo Jackson’s totals below (keep in mind that he never played in more than 135 games in a season):
| Year | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1991 | 613 | 539 | 148 | 18 | 2 | 39 | 74 | 156 | 0.275 | 0.362 | 0.532 | 0.894 |
| 1992 | 613 | 523 | 145 | 16 | 1 | 41 | 90 | 140 | 0.278 | 0.383 | 0.564 | 0.947 |
| 1993 | 613 | 507 | 142 | 13 | 1 | 43 | 106 | 124 | 0.281 | 0.405 | 0.582 | 0.987 |
| 1994 | 613 | 491 | 139 | 11 | 0 | 45 | 122 | 108 | 0.284 | 0.426 | 0.580 | 1.006 |
| 1995 | 613 | 509 | 137 | 15 | 0 | 40 | 104 | 126 | 0.270 | 0.393 | 0.534 | 0.927 |
| 1996 | 613 | 528 | 135 | 16 | 2 | 36 | 85 | 145 | 0.257 | 0.359 | 0.498 | 0.857 |
| 1997 | 613 | 546 | 130 | 17 | 1 | 32 | 67 | 163 | 0.239 | 0.321 | 0.449 | 0.770 |
| 1998 | 613 | 565 | 128 | 16 | 0 | 28 | 48 | 182 | 0.226 | 0.287 | 0.389 | 0.676 |
| 1999 | 613 | 583 | 124 | 18 | 0 | 25 | 30 | 190 | 0.212 | 0.251 | 0.372 | 0.623 |
| Totals | 5517 | 4791 | 1228 | 140 | 7 | 329 | 726 | 1334 | 0.256 | 0.354 | 0.493 | 0.847 |
The numbers above would have required Jackson to continue the gains that he showed in plate discipline in 1990 for several years. The additional contact would provide the power and the power takes away from the speed game that Jackson had. However, Jackson was absolutely ripped physically and was more than capable of becoming one of the most feared power-hitters in the game.
Realistic numbers or not, Jackson would have been one of the weaker candidates for the Hall of Fame if he were to have retired after the 1999 season. While his homerun total of 438 would have been impressive, would it have looked as fantastic with Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Sammy Sosa posting the numbers that they were at that time? And a .256 career average?
What might have been with Bo Jackson is pretty impressive. The hip issues that robbed him of his fame and athleticism were devastating. We have seen it happen before, though…Tony Conigliaro with the hit-by-pitch to the eye or Mickey Mantle and his knees. People who had the opportunity to see those types of players can tell stories about how great they may have been.
People of the 1980′s and 1990′s don’t need real statistics to know how special Bo Jackson was and how great he could have become. While he won’t be in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown or Canton, we’ll always have Tecmo Bowl.
Indians Stuff, 12/20/12
I write about the Indians over at www.wahoosonfirst.com and Bleacher Report when I’m not writing things here. You should check these out, just in case you need something to read while the sky is falling due to a lazy Mayan:
Who is going to DH for the Indians with the current roster?
http://wahoosonfirst.com/2012/12/20/who-will-be-tribes-dh-in-2013/
Thoughts on the Indians’ acquisition of Mark Reynolds and Trevor Bauer:
http://wahoosonfirst.com/2012/12/13/on-mark-reynolds-trevor-bauer-and-the-indians-new-direction/
Should the Reds and Indians do a Chris Perez for Devin Mesoraco Trade?
http://wahoosonfirst.com/2012/12/03/could-indians-reds-trade-chris-perez-for-devin-mesoraco/
Three pretend trades that the Indians should try to make:
http://wahoosonfirst.com/2012/11/19/three-trades-the-cleveland-indians-should-make/
2013 Indians Batting Order:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1448795-mlb-indians-projecting-the-2013-batting-order
How many wins is Terry Francona worth?
Seven starting pitchers that the Indians should target:
Why the Indians can win now with Terry Francona:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1429424-mlb-why-the-indians-can-win-now-with-terry-francona
Reflection on Sandy Hook
I was teaching on Friday morning when I read the news about the tragic shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Connecticut. Early reports were upsetting, especially given the young children in the school, but as the number of victims grew throughout the day, my heart sank.
I was a senior in high school when the Columbine shootings occurred. It was devastating and scary, as you wondered if something like that was possible in your own community. The blame that went to the “gothic” groups then was very strange, as it made society look at that group of kids like they were all capable of such a crime. I still remember that day, the announcement, and the feelings I had about how my life would have changed if I was in that school.
When the news at Sandy Hook broke, I sat there as a parent of a four-year-old daughter, a husband of a first and second grade teacher, and I couldn’t help but break down when I thought about something like that happening to me.
However, it didn’t, and what I thought about how I may have felt can’t match the pain of the parents and those affected by this unspeakable crime.
I buried a stillborn child in May of 2007. I didn’t get to know my daughter and it was still a life-altering experience. You can’t even begin to understand the pain of not being able to tell your child that it will be ok, providing comfort in their final moments, or giving them the guidance they may have needed to make it through the chaotic events.
I wanted nothing more than to just reach out to my child, hold her, and tell her that I loved her on Friday afternoon. I talked to her on the phone that day (I’m divorced with a shared-parenting plan) just to tell her that something really bad happened today and that I am glad that she is safe.
When you think about what schools are supposed to be, this disgusting act becomes worse. We send out children to school to learn the fundamental values and knowledge needed to succeed in our society. We give them a kiss and drop them off or send them off to a bus knowing that we trust that they are safe at school, returning home to share their daily adventures with us several hours later.
On Friday, that simple expectation changed. Never take a moment for granted. Hug your child tightly and show them the love that they deserve, allowing them to understand the place that they keep in your heart and soul.
We can’t keep guns out of the hands of the bad guys, but we can certainly do more to make sure that something like this never happens again. There have been 31 school shootings since Columbine (4/20/1999) in the United States…there have only been 14 in the rest of the world COMBINED since then.
For those of you banging on the 2nd Amendment rights on Facebook and Twitter…in the words of my favorite college professor:
Posting statuses about your 2nd Ammendment right to bear arms in the aftermath of a shooting tragedy is rather like going up to the family of a drunk-driving victim immediately after the death and describing your favorite beer. Yes, it’s your right to do so. But it’s also completely tasteless.
Never forget the children and the brave teachers and staff who died in, quite possibly, the most cowardly act this side of the 9/11 attacks.















